Upside case
Bull case
$261+19.5%
ALL would need investors to value it at roughly 10x earnings — about 2x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 44 covering ALL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
21
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$244
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $261
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $56.2B
ALL price targets
Three scenarios for where ALL stock could go
Current
~$219
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $219
Base
$258
Bull
$261
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$258+18.0%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Allstate Corporation
ALL · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
Allstate is a major property and casualty insurance company offering auto, homeowners, and other personal insurance products across the United States and Canada. It generates revenue primarily from insurance premiums — with private passenger auto insurance being its largest segment — supplemented by investment income on its substantial float. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition, extensive agent network, and economies of scale in claims processing and risk assessment.
Market Cap
$56.2B
Revenue TTM
$67.1B
Net Income TTM
$12.1B
Net Margin
18.1%
ALL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+84.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.94/$3.25
Revenue
$16.6B/$15.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$11.17/$7.67
Revenue
$17.1B/$15.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$14.31/$9.83
Revenue
$14.6B/$14.5B
Q2 2026
EPS
$10.65/$7.31
Revenue
$14.6B/$15.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.94/$3.25 | +82.8% | $16.6B/$15.2B | +9.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.17/$7.67 | +45.6% | $17.1B/$15.7B | +8.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.31/$9.83 | +45.6% | $14.6B/$14.5B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.65/$7.31 | +45.7% | $14.6B/$15.2B | -4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$68.3B
+1.8% YoY
FY2
$73.5B
+7.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$40.71
-12.0% YoY
FY2
$45.08
+10.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.5B
FCF Margin: 17.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ALL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $64.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Property Liability
93.4%
+2.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Property Liability is the largest disclosed segment at 93.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.4% YoY.
ALL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $321 — implies +48.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
48.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALL
5.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
77% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ALL
5.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
57% discount
vs ALL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
5.7x
vs
5Y Average
7.9x
27% discount
Forward PE
8.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-58%
Financial Services
10.4x
-23%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
5.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
-77%
Financial Services
13.3x
-57%
5Y Avg
7.9x
-27%
PEG Ratio
0.33x
S&P 500
1.72x
-81%
Financial Services
1.01x
-67%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-70%
Financial Services
11.4x
-60%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-29%
Price/FCF
5.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-73%
Financial Services
10.6x
-46%
5Y Avg
7.2x
-21%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Financial Services
2.2x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+13%
Dividend Yield
1.79%
S&P 500
1.87%
-4%
Financial Services
2.70%
-34%
5Y Avg
2.26%
-21%
| Metric | ALL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.1x | 19.1x-58% | 10.4x-23% | — |
| Trailing PE | 5.7x | 25.1x-77% | 13.3x-57% | 7.9x-27% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.33x | 1.72x-81% | 1.01x-67% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.6x | 15.2x-70% | 11.4x-60% | 6.5x-29% |
| Price/FCF | 5.7x | 21.1x-73% | 10.6x-46% | 7.2x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-73% | 2.2x-62% | 0.7x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.79% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.26% |
ALL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ALL posts 18.1% net margin with 42.7% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$67.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$46.25
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
42.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$678M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.0%
Dividend
1.8%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
10.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
257M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageALL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Risk
Fluctuations in overall market prices driven by economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, or negative investor sentiment can cause significant swings in the value of the stock. These movements affect the entire market and cannot be eliminated through diversification.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Changes in interest rates impact borrowing costs for the company and the valuation of its investments, especially fixed‑income securities. Rising rates can increase debt servicing expenses and compress earnings.
Medium
Inflation Risk
Persistent high inflation erodes the real returns of the investment if earnings do not grow sufficiently to keep pace with rising prices. This can squeeze profit margins and reduce net income.
Medium
Currency Risk
Fluctuations in exchange rates can affect the company’s international operations and revenue streams. A weaker domestic currency can increase the cost of imported inputs and reduce foreign earnings when converted back.
Medium
Business Risk
Poor management decisions, weak business models, or operational issues can directly impact profitability. These factors are unique to the company and can lead to declining earnings.
Medium
Financial Risk
High levels of debt, inability to meet interest payments, or refinancing difficulties expose the company to liquidity and solvency concerns. These risks can limit growth and increase default probability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Led Rally to 2026
The bull case hinges on continued AI advancements driving new investment cycles. Analysts project the AI‑led rally to persist through 2026, supported by supportive monetary policies and emerging market opportunities. This trend is expected to sustain higher corporate earnings and capital expenditures.
Low‑Interest Rate Environment
Low interest rates make borrowing cheaper for businesses, encouraging expansion and investment. They also make stocks more attractive compared to bonds, driving capital into the market. This environment supports sustained corporate growth.
Strong Corporate Earnings & Capital Expenditures
Rising corporate profits are a direct indicator of a company's health and its ability to generate value for shareholders. Aggressive corporate spending on new technologies and infrastructure signals confidence in future growth. Together, they contribute to economic momentum.
Institutional Participation Boost
The entry of institutional investors like hedge funds and corporations signals confidence and attracts retail investors. Their participation can increase demand for stocks and support upward price momentum. This trend reinforces market optimism.
Weakening Dollar Attraction
A weakening US dollar can make US assets more attractive to international investors. This can potentially increase demand for stocks as foreign capital flows in. The effect supports broader market rally.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$218.51
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$188.08
+16.2% from the low
52-Week High
$222.22
-1.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.87%
3 Month
+1.54%
YTD
+7.2%
1 Year
+9.1%
3Y CAGR
+23.6%
5Y CAGR
+11.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.1x
vs 10.8x median
-25% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.8%
vs +3.4% median
-48% below peer median
Net Margin
18.1%
vs 12.9% median
+40% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALL ALL The Allstate Corporation | $56.2B | 8.1x | +1.8% | 18.1% | Buy | +11.8% |
PGR PGR The Progressive Corporation | $115.9B | 12.1x | +11.1% | 12.6% | Hold | +16.5% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
CB CB Chubb Limited | $125.9B | 11.9x | +3.4% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $12.0B | 9.2x | +2.4% | 8.7% | Hold | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALL Dividend and Capital Return
ALL returns 4.0% annually — 1.79% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.79%
Payout Ratio
10.1%
How ALL Splits Its Return
Div 1.79%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.79%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.6%
5Y Div CAGR
13.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
6M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
257M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.00 | +8.7% | 2.2% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $3.68 | +3.4% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $3.56 | +4.7% | 0.9% | 3.4% |
| 2022 | $3.40 | +4.9% | 6.9% | 9.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsALL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $244, implying +11.8% from the current price of $219.
02What is the ALL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALL is $244 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $281 (+28.6% from today), and the low-end target is $215 (-1.6%). The base case model target is $258.
03Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALL trades at 8.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Allstate Corporation (ALL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALL in 2026 are: (1) Market Risk — Fluctuations in overall market prices driven by economic slowdowns, geopolitical tensions, or negative investor sentiment can cause significant swings in the value of the stock. (2) Interest Rate Risk — Changes in interest rates impact borrowing costs for the company and the valuation of its investments, especially fixed‑income securities. (3) Inflation Risk — Persistent high inflation erodes the real returns of the investment if earnings do not grow sufficiently to keep pace with rising prices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Allstate Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALL will report consensus revenue of $68.3B (+1.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $40.71 (-12.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $73.5B in revenue.
06When does The Allstate Corporation (ALL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ALL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Allstate Corporation generate?
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) generated $11.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.2%. ALL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).