Upside case
Bull case
$508+61.1%
AIT would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
15
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 15 covering AIT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$322
+2.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$98 – $508
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
15
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.7B
AIT price targets
Three scenarios for where AIT stock could go
Current
~$315
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $315
Bear
$98
Base
$394
Bull
$508
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$394+25.0%
At 37x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$98-69.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 20x multiple contraction could push AIT down roughly 69% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.
AIT · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionJune year-end
Applied Industrial Technologies is a leading industrial distributor that provides motion, power, control, and automation solutions to manufacturing and industrial customers. It generates revenue primarily through product distribution—including bearings, power transmission components, fluid power systems, and automation products—with additional income from technical services, equipment repair, and installation work. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive technical expertise, value-added services, and deep customer relationships built over decades in specialized industrial markets.
Market Cap
$11.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.8B
Net Income TTM
$404M
Net Margin
8.3%
AIT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.80/$2.63
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.63/$2.48
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.51/$2.48
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.65/$2.63
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.80/$2.63 | +6.5% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.63/$2.48 | +6.0% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.51/$2.48 | +1.2% | $1.2B/$1.2B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.65/$2.63 | +0.8% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.0B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$5.2B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.62
+9.4% YoY
FY2
$12.65
+8.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$437M
FCF Margin: 9.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AIT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AIT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Engineered Solutions Segment
100.0%
+12.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other Countries
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Engineered Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 12.5% YoY.
Other Countries is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AIT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $414 — implies +36.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AIT
31.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+24% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
AIT
31.2x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+20% premium
vs AIT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.2x
vs
5Y Average
19.7x
+58% premium
Forward PE
29.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+55%
Industrials
20.8x
+42%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+24%
Industrials
25.9x
+20%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+58%
PEG Ratio
0.42x
S&P 500
1.75x
-76%
Industrials
1.59x
-74%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+39%
Industrials
13.9x
+52%
5Y Avg
13.8x
+53%
Price/FCF
25.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+17%
Industrials
20.6x
+21%
5Y Avg
19.5x
+29%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Industrials
1.6x
+61%
5Y Avg
1.4x
+81%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
S&P 500
1.88%
-72%
Industrials
1.24%
-58%
5Y Avg
1.03%
-50%
| Metric | AIT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg AIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.5x | 19.1x+55% | 20.8x+42% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.2x | 25.2x+24% | 25.9x+20% | 19.7x+58% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.42x | 1.75x-76% | 1.59x-74% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.2x | 15.3x+39% | 13.9x+52% | 13.8x+53% |
| Price/FCF | 25.1x | 21.3x+17% | 20.6x+21% | 19.5x+29% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-18% | 1.6x+61% | 1.4x+81% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.03% |
AIT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAIT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
AIT generates $437M in free cash flow at a 9.0% margin — 18.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
30.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$437M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
18.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$388M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$184M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
21.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$153M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.64
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
37M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAIT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
AIT stock is currently perceived as overvalued, with its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio exceeding its historical median. This premium valuation raises concerns that if the company's growth does not meet high expectations, the stock price could experience significant downward pressure.
High Risk
Cost Pressures and Margin Challenges
The company is facing increased operating expenses and LIFO adjustments, leading to a decline in EBITDA margins. Persistent cost pressures, coupled with the inability to pass these costs onto customers, could adversely affect earnings and investor confidence.
Medium
Insider Selling
In the past three months, insiders have sold AIT shares worth $10.8 million, which may indicate a lack of confidence in the stock's future performance. Such significant insider selling can raise red flags for potential investors.
Medium
Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Uncertainties
Despite raising its fiscal 2026 guidance, AIT acknowledges that macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties could impact its outlook. These external factors may affect demand, supply chains, and overall business operations.
Lower
Shifting Customer Preferences
There is a risk of shifting customer preferences towards web capabilities and direct shipments, which could result in market share losses. This trend may particularly pressure gross margins in the national account sector.
Lower
Capital Expenditure and Disclosure
Analysts suggest that AIT's capital expenditures may be inadequate compared to larger distribution peers. Additionally, less comprehensive disclosures regarding growth and margin expansion initiatives could hinder its competitive position.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AIT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance and Growth
AIT has demonstrated solid revenue growth, with Q3 2026 sales reaching $1.25 billion, a 7.3% increase year-over-year. For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, sales grew 8.2% to $3.61 billion, with net income rising 3.8%.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Several analysts maintain a positive outlook on AIT, with Oppenheimer raising its price target to $350 and Mizuho to $330. The consensus rating among analysts is 'Moderate Buy,' reflecting confidence in the company's performance.
Strategic Acquisitions and Shareholder Returns
AIT has been active in acquisitions, including the recent completion of Thompson Industrial Supply, which is expected to contribute to future growth. The company has also raised its dividend for 16 consecutive years, demonstrating a commitment to returning capital to shareholders.
Improving Demand and Market Position
The company is benefiting from macro tailwinds such as easing oil prices and lower Treasury yields, which are improving the outlook for industrial demand. Demand in automation and fluid power is particularly strong within its Engineered Solutions segment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AIT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$315.39
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$213.78
+47.5% from the low
52-Week High
$316.46
-0.3% from the high
1 Month
+17.01%
3 Month
+8.11%
YTD
+21.5%
1 Year
+42.9%
3Y CAGR
+34.6%
5Y CAGR
+25.0%
10Y CAGR
+21.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AIT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.5x
vs 26.8x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +6.1% median
-40% below peer median
Net Margin
8.3%
vs 9.5% median
-12% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AIT AIT Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. | $11.7B | 29.5x | +3.6% | 8.3% | Buy | +2.2% |
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $55.6B | 26.8x | +5.7% | 9.5% | Hold | -1.1% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $5.9B | 24.1x | +1.2% | 5.4% | Hold | -6.9% |
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $51.3B | 36.1x | +8.9% | 15.3% | Hold | +4.2% |
DNO DNOW Dnow Inc. | $1.4B | 21.3x | +21.9% | -2.7% | Buy | +25.9% |
WDF WDFC WD-40 Company | $4.2B | 35.2x | +6.1% | 14.4% | Hold | +42.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AIT Dividend and Capital Return
AIT returns capital mainly through $153M/year in buybacks (1.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.52% dividend — combining for 1.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 16 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
Payout Ratio
16.2%
How AIT Splits Its Return
Div 0.52%
Buyback 1.3%
Dividend 0.52%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.64
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.6%
5Y Div CAGR
7.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$153M
Estimated Shares Retired
484.6K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
37M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.02 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.84 | +24.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $1.48 | +5.7% | 1.0% | 1.7% |
| 2023 | $1.40 | +2.9% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| 2022 | $1.36 | +3.0% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsAIT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 15 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $322, implying +2.2% from the current price of $315. The bear case scenario is $98 and the bull case is $508.
02What is the AIT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AIT is $322 based on 15 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $350 (+11.0% from today), and the low-end target is $300 (-4.9%). The base case model target is $394.
03Is Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) stock overvalued in 2026?
AIT trades at 29.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AIT in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Concerns — AIT stock is currently perceived as overvalued, with its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio exceeding its historical median. (2) Cost Pressures and Margin Challenges — The company is facing increased operating expenses and LIFO adjustments, leading to a decline in EBITDA margins. (3) Insider Selling — In the past three months, insiders have sold AIT shares worth $10. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AIT will report consensus revenue of $5.0B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.62 (+9.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.2B in revenue.
06When does Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AIT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. generate?
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc. (AIT) generated $437M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.0%. AIT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($153M TTM).