Upside case
Bull case
$1706+50.3%
GWW would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
38
analysts
10 bullish · 4 bearish · 38 covering GWW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
24
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1157
+2.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$708 – $1706
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $54.0B
GWW price targets
Three scenarios for where GWW stock could go
Current
~$1135
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1135
Bear
$708
Base
$1436
Bull
$1706
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1436+26.5%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$708-37.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push GWW down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
W.W. Grainger, Inc.
GWW · NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionDecember year-end
W.W. Grainger is a leading distributor of maintenance, repair, and operating (MRO) products and services to businesses and institutions. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across its High-Touch Solutions North America segment — which accounts for the majority of sales — and its Endless Assortment segment, which includes online marketplaces like Zoro and MonotaRO. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive product assortment, extensive distribution network, and deep customer relationships built through technical support and inventory management services.
Market Cap
$54.0B
Revenue TTM
$17.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
Net Margin
9.5%
GWW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$9.86/$9.48
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$9.97/$10.07
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$10.21/$9.98
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$9.44/$9.46
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $9.86/$9.48 | +4.0% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.97/$10.07 | -1.0% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21/$9.98 | +2.3% | $4.7B/$4.6B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.44/$9.46 | -0.2% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +0.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$19.0B
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$20.1B
+6.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$41.01
+14.4% YoY
FY2
$44.78
+9.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
FCF Margin: 7.4%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$10.20
Expected Revenue
$4.6B
GWW beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
GWW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $16.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
High-Touch Solutions (N.A.)
81.4%
+3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
81.2%
+4.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
High-Touch Solutions (N.A.) is the largest disclosed segment at 81.4% of FY 2024 revenue, up 3.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 81.2%, up 4.2% YoY.
GWW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $1181 — implies +2.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GWW
32.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+28% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GWW
32.1x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+25% premium
vs GWW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.1x
vs
5Y Average
24.5x
+31% premium
Forward PE
26.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+36%
Industrials
20.7x
+26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+28%
Industrials
25.7x
+25%
5Y Avg
24.5x
+31%
PEG Ratio
1.44x
S&P 500
1.72x
-16%
Industrials
1.64x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+26%
Industrials
13.7x
+41%
5Y Avg
16.3x
+18%
Price/FCF
40.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+92%
Industrials
21.2x
+92%
5Y Avg
32.3x
+25%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-4%
Industrials
1.6x
+90%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
S&P 500
1.87%
-54%
Industrials
1.27%
-32%
5Y Avg
1.07%
-20%
| Metric | GWW | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GWW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.0x | 19.1x+36% | 20.7x+26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.1x | 25.1x+28% | 25.7x+25% | 24.5x+31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.44x | 1.72x-16% | 1.64x-12% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2x | 15.2x+26% | 13.7x+41% | 16.3x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 40.5x | 21.1x+92% | 21.2x+92% | 32.3x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 1.6x+90% | 2.4x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.86% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 1.07% |
GWW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGWW Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
GWW 32.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$35.84
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
32.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
19.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$585M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.9× FCF
~1.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$9.73
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
48M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGWW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Gross Margin Decline
Grainger has experienced a decline in gross margin, with free cash flow conversion falling below its historical average. This erosion of profitability signals tightening cost pressures and reduced pricing power in the MRO market.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Uncertainties
Volatility in the global economy—including trade policy shifts, currency fluctuations, and inflation—can increase procurement costs. Potential tariffs on trade partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China could raise costs, impacting profits if the company absorbs these increases.
Medium
Market Pressures
The US MRO market has contracted, and Grainger has issued downward revisions to organic sales growth guidance. A slight contraction in operating margin further highlights current market pressures on profitability.
Medium
Intense Competition
Grainger faces fierce competition from established peers like Fastenal and HD Supply, as well as emerging players such as Amazon. This rivalry can erode market share and constrain growth prospects.
Medium
Dependence on Economic Cycles
Grainger’s performance is closely tied to the health of industrial and commercial sectors. Economic downturns in these sectors can negatively impact sales and profitability.
Lower
Slowing Growth
Revenue growth has been modest, with analysts projecting slim growth in the coming year. This may indicate market saturation or increasing competitive pressure, limiting upside potential.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GWW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
E-commerce Growth
Platforms like Zoro and Grainger.com are expected to drive revenue and improve margins, with the Endless Assortment segment—home to Zoro—showing robust sales growth, especially among smaller businesses. This digital channel expansion is projected to enhance customer retention and broaden Grainger’s market reach.
Infrastructure & Reshoring
Rising infrastructure spending and reshoring initiatives create tailwinds that enable Grainger to capture additional market share. The company’s positioning in these growth areas is expected to translate into higher sales volumes and stronger demand for its product mix.
Financial Strength
Grainger posted a 4.5% year‑over‑year revenue increase and boasts a high return on equity of 47.46%. For 2026, the company projects organic sales growth of 6.5%–9% and margin expansion, underscoring its robust profitability and efficient management.
Digital & AI Initiatives
Grainger is advancing digital channels and AI‑driven initiatives to boost marketing, seller effectiveness, and customer experience. These efforts aim to streamline operations, reduce costs, and further improve gross margins.
Shareholder Returns
The company has a history of consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, reinforcing its commitment to delivering value to investors.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GWW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1134.78
52W Range Position
73%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$906.52
+25.2% from the low
52-Week High
$1218.63
-6.9% from the high
1 Month
+1.57%
3 Month
-4.09%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year
+6.5%
3Y CAGR
+18.9%
5Y CAGR
+19.8%
10Y CAGR
+17.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GWW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.0x
vs 29.3x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.7%
vs +5.7% median
+0% above peer median
Net Margin
9.5%
vs 5.4% median
+77% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GWW GWW W.W. Grainger, Inc. | $54.0B | 26.0x | +5.7% | 9.5% | Hold | +2.0% |
MSM MSM MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. | $5.7B | 23.7x | +1.2% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.1% |
FAS FAST Fastenal Company | $50.9B | 35.8x | +8.9% | 15.3% | Hold | +5.1% |
SIT SITE SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $5.4B | 27.8x | +5.7% | 3.2% | Buy | +34.1% |
DXP DXPE DXP Enterprises, Inc. | $2.8B | 29.3x | +11.9% | 4.4% | Hold | -14.1% |
WSO WSO Watsco, Inc. | $17.1B | 33.4x | +0.1% | 6.8% | Hold | -5.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GWW Dividend and Capital Return
GWW returns capital mainly through $1.0B/year in buybacks (1.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.86% dividend — combining for 2.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 40 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
0.86%
Payout Ratio
27.4%
How GWW Splits Its Return
Div 0.86%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 0.86%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$9.73
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
40Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.2%
5Y Div CAGR
8.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
920.9K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
48M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $8.83 | +10.2% | 2.2% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $8.01 | +9.7% | 2.3% | 3.1% |
| 2023 | $7.30 | +7.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $6.78 | +6.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsGWW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1157, implying +2.0% from the current price of $1135. The bear case scenario is $708 and the bull case is $1706.
02What is the GWW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GWW is $1157 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1300 (+14.6% from today), and the low-end target is $1044 (-8.0%). The base case model target is $1436.
03Is W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) stock overvalued in 2026?
GWW trades at 26.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GWW in 2026 are: (1) Gross Margin Decline — Grainger has experienced a decline in gross margin, with free cash flow conversion falling below its historical average. (2) Macroeconomic Uncertainties — Volatility in the global economy—including trade policy shifts, currency fluctuations, and inflation—can increase procurement costs. (3) Market Pressures — The US MRO market has contracted, and Grainger has issued downward revisions to organic sales growth guidance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is W.W. Grainger, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GWW will report consensus revenue of $19.0B (+5.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $41.01 (+14.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.1B in revenue.
06When does W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) report its next earnings?
W.W. Grainger, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $10.20 and revenue of $4.6B. Over recent quarters, GWW has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does W.W. Grainger, Inc. generate?
W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.4%. GWW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).