AJG trades 1.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $284.92.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AJG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 21.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 29 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $284.92, based on estimates from 29 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $281.61, this represents a potential upside of +1.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $72.35B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $260.00 to a high of $300.00, representing a 14% spread in expectations. The median target of $287.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 18 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,10 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, AJG trades at a trailing P/E of 49.0x and forward P/E of 21.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 3.32 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +116.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $444.30, with bear and bull scenarios of $279.91 and $585.41 respectively. Model confidence stands at 59/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MMCMarsh & McLennan Companies, Inc. | $85.3B | $174.06 | $199.40 | +14.6% | Hold | 16.9x | 26 |
 AONAon plc | $71.0B | $334.81 | $361.30 | +7.9% | Buy | 18.2x | 38 |
 WTWWillis Towers Watson Public Limited Company | $31.1B | $328.86 | $358.11 | +8.9% | Buy | 16.6x | 29 |
 BROBrown & Brown, Inc. | $24.1B | $72.12 | $72.67 | +0.8% | Hold | 16.3x | 31 |
 RYANRyan Specialty Holdings, Inc. | $12.5B | $47.73 | $48.50 | +1.6% | Buy | 21.9x | 19 |
 EHEHang Holdings Limited | $147M | $3.97 | $7.90 | +99.0% | Hold | — | 5 |
 ERIEErie Indemnity Company | $12.6B | $273.07 | — | — | — | 21.2x | — |
 HIGThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | $36.7B | $133.99 | $145.40 | +8.5% | Buy | 10.3x | 42 |
 CNACNA Financial Corporation | $12.8B | $47.32 | $45.00 | -4.9% | Hold | 12.4x | 7 |
 ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd. | $37.5B | $107.28 | $112.50 | +4.9% | Hold | 10.6x | 34 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AJG stock.
The consensus price target for AJG is $284.92, close to the current price of $281.61 (1.2% implied move). Based on 29 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
AJG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 29 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 18 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $284.92 implies 1.2% upside from current levels.
AJG trades at a forward P/E of 21.5019x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $284.92 (1.2% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $300 for AJG, while the most conservative target is $260. The consensus of $284.92 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $585 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AJG is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 29 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 18 have Buy ratings, 10 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AJG stock forecast based on 29 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $284.92, with estimates ranging from $260 (bear case) to $300 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $444, with bear/bull scenarios of $280/$585.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AJG's fair value at $444 (base case), with a bear case of $280 and bull case of $585. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 59/100.
AJG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 21.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 49.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
AJG appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Buy" rating and minimal upside to the $284.92 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AJG analyst price targets range from $260 to $300, a 14% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $284.92 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $280-$585 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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