12.5% Below Target

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) has a consensus 12-month price target of $102.57, implying 12.5% upside from $91.18. The 34 analysts covering ACGL see moderate appreciation potential.

ACGL has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 34 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 16 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $102.57 implies 12.5% upside from current levels.

With a forward P/E of 9.8161x, ACGL trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $102.57 implies 12.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $114 for ACGL, while the most conservative target is $93. The consensus of $102.57 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $118 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

ACGL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 34 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 16 have Buy ratings, 16 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

The 12-month ACGL stock forecast based on 34 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $102.57, with estimates ranging from $93 (bear case) to $114 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $90, with bear/bull scenarios of $57/$118.

Our quantitative valuation model calculates ACGL's fair value at $90 (base case), with a bear case of $57 and bull case of $118. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 53/100.

ACGL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 7.8x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ACGL, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $102.57 price target (12.5% upside). 16 of 34 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

ACGL analyst price targets range from $93 to $114, a 20% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $102.57 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $57-$118 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.