Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$94.52
Price Target
$104.00
Target Range
$93.00 — $114.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E10.1x
Trailing P/E8.1x
Forward PEG0.35
Implied Growth-19.6%
Median Target$104.00
Analyst Spread20.2%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$93
-1.6%
Consensus
$104
+10.0%
Bull Case
$114
+20.6%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 67/100
Bear$67
Base$132
Bull$227
ACGL Price Target Analysis
Updated May 7, 2026As of May 7, 2026, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $104.00, based on estimates from 34 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $94.52, this represents a potential upside of +10.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $33.67B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $93.00 to a high of $114.00, representing a 20% spread in expectations. The median target of $104.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 16 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,16 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, ACGL trades at a trailing P/E of 8.1x and forward P/E of 10.1x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.35 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -19.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $132.46, with bear and bull scenarios of $66.89 and $226.64 respectively. Model confidence stands at 67/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+24.7%
Avg Forward P/E11.1x
Peers with Coverage8 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RNRRenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. | $13.0B | $300.76 | $308.33 | +2.5% | Hold | 7.7x | 28 |
 GLREGreenlight Capital Re, Ltd. | $590M | $17.80 | — | — | Buy | 8.9x | 3 |
 PREPrenetics Global Limited | $242M | $15.87 | $36.00 | +126.8% | Buy | — | 1 |
 AXSAXIS Capital Holdings Limited | $7.3B | $99.29 | $123.88 | +24.8% | Buy | 7.5x | 29 |
 MKLMarkel Corporation | $22.5B | $1799.97 | $1950.00 | +8.3% | Hold | 16.0x | 15 |
 ERIEErie Indemnity Company | $10.0B | $216.75 | — | — | — | 17.1x | — |
 AIGAmerican International Group, Inc. | $41.0B | $76.43 | $85.63 | +12.0% | Hold | 9.8x | 41 |
 HIGThe Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.5B | $132.67 | $152.00 | +14.6% | Buy | 10.1x | 42 |
 CNACNA Financial Corporation | $11.8B | $43.69 | $45.00 | +3.0% | Hold | 9.1x | 7 |
 WRBW. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.9B | $66.52 | $70.30 | +5.7% | Hold | 14.3x | 30 |
Upside Potential Comparison
PREAXSHIGAIGMKLWRBCNARNRFull ACGL Stock Analysis
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Start ComparisonACGL — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ACGL stock.
What is the ACGL stock price target for 2026?
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) has a consensus 12-month price target of $104, implying 10.0% upside from $94.52. The 34 analysts covering ACGL see moderate appreciation potential.
Is ACGL a buy, sell, or hold?
ACGL has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 34 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 16 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $104 implies 10.0% upside from current levels.
Is ACGL stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 10.0542x, ACGL trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $104 implies 10.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can ACGL stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $114 for ACGL, while the most conservative target is $93. The consensus of $104 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $227 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover ACGL stock?
ACGL is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 34 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 16 have Buy ratings, 16 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the ACGL stock forecast?
The 12-month ACGL stock forecast based on 34 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $104, with estimates ranging from $93 (bear case) to $114 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $132, with bear/bull scenarios of $67/$227.
What is ACGL's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ACGL's fair value at $132 (base case), with a bear case of $67 and bull case of $227. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 67/100.
What is ACGL's forward P/E ratio?
ACGL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 8.1x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy ACGL stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on ACGL, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $104 price target (10.0% upside). 16 of 34 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do ACGL price targets vary so much?
ACGL analyst price targets range from $93 to $114, a 20% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $104 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $67-$227 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.