Upside case
Bull case
$85-79.6%
The bull case prices ALAB at 29x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
16
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 16 covering ALAB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$240
-42.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$41 – $85
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
16
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
140.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $71.0B
ALAB price targets
Three scenarios for where ALAB stock could go
Current
~$417
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $417
Bear
$41
Base
$64
Bull
$85
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$64-84.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$41-90.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 127x multiple contraction could push ALAB down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock
ALAB · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Astera Labs designs semiconductor connectivity solutions that enable high-performance cloud and AI infrastructure. It generates revenue primarily from selling its portfolio of data, network, and memory connectivity products — including both hardware chips and supporting software — to cloud service providers and data center operators. The company's competitive advantage lies in its software-defined architecture that allows customers to scale AI infrastructure efficiently, addressing critical bottlenecks in data movement.
Market Cap
$71.0B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$268M
Net Margin
26.7%
ALAB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
78%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+86.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.32
Revenue
$192M/$172M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.39
Revenue
$231M/$206M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.52
Revenue
$271M/$250M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.61/$0.54
Revenue
$308M/$292M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/$0.32 | +35.8% | $192M/$172M | +11.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.49/$0.39 | +25.7% | $231M/$206M | +11.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$0.52 | +12.4% | $271M/$250M | +8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.61/$0.54 | +13.6% | $308M/$292M | +5.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+37.7% YoY
FY2
$2.0B
+42.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.47
-0.2% YoY
FY2
$1.43
-2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$343M
FCF Margin: 34.2%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.69
Expected Revenue
$360M
ALAB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALAB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $853M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
SINGAPORE
32.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
SINGAPORE is the largest reported region at 32.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ALAB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $202 — implies -51.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
51.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALAB
341.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1298% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ALAB
341.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+1079% premium
vs ALAB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
341.9x
vs
5Y Average
136.4x
+151% premium
Forward PE
140.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+646%
Technology
22.3x
+530%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
341.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1298%
Technology
29.0x
+1079%
5Y Avg
136.4x
+151%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
393.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+2485%
Technology
16.6x
+2265%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
252.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1117%
Technology
19.2x
+1212%
5Y Avg
137.9x
+83%
Price/Sales
83.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2593%
Technology
2.4x
+3315%
5Y Avg
39.5x
+111%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALAB | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ALAB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 140.3x | 18.8x+646% | 22.3x+530% | — |
| Trailing PE | 341.9x | 24.4x+1298% | 29.0x+1079% | 136.4x+151% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 393.1x | 15.2x+2485% | 16.6x+2265% | — |
| Price/FCF | 252.0x | 20.7x+1117% | 19.2x+1212% | 137.9x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 83.3x | 3.1x+2593% | 2.4x+3315% | 39.5x+111% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ALAB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALAB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ALAB generates $343M in free cash flow at a 34.2% margin — 12.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+104.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
76.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$343M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$168M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$132M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
20.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
170M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALAB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Revenue growth sustainability
Despite strong recent revenue growth (93% YoY in Q1 2026), maintaining this trajectory in the competitive semiconductor/AI infrastructure space may prove challenging.
High Risk
Earnings estimate risk
Proprietary models project FY+1 EPS of $1.47, which is below consensus estimates, indicating potential earnings disappointment risk.
High Risk
Market valuation concerns
Stock shows -34.8% implied upside to consensus target, suggesting potential overvaluation relative to fundamentals.
Medium
Competitive positioning
As a fabless semiconductor company focused on AI infrastructure, Astera faces intense competition from larger, more established players in the space.
Medium
Technology transition risk
Company's focus on 'AI Infrastructure 2.0' requires continuous innovation to maintain leadership as industry standards evolve.
Medium
Execution risk
With rapid growth (76.3% gross margins), maintaining operational efficiency and scaling production could pressure margins.
Lower
Regulatory disclosure burden
Company disclosed 64 risk factors in recent earnings, indicating complex operational and market exposures.
Lower
Market sentiment volatility
As a recent IPO (March 2024), stock may experience higher volatility as investor sentiment shifts in the semiconductor sector.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALAB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI Infrastructure Leadership
Astera Labs is leading the transition to AI Infrastructure 2.0 with purpose-built silicon hardware and software solutions grounded in open standards.
Strong Revenue Growth
The company doubled its revenue to $852.5 million in fiscal 2025, indicating robust financial performance and growth potential.
High-Speed Connectivity Solutions
Astera specializes in designing high-speed connectivity solutions for data centers and AI, addressing a critical need in the industry.
Technological Moat
The company has a strong technological moat, supported by its scale-up fabric strategy and strategic investments in photonics and high-speed connectivity.
Intelligent Automation Platform
Astera's agentic platform simplifies data prep, modeling, and analytics, accelerating workflows from raw data to real insights.
Undervalued Stock Potential
Despite strong performance, the stock trades 52% below its 52-week high, presenting a unique upside opportunity.
Robust Demand Positioning
The company is favorably positioned with robust demand for its high-performance connectivity solutions, underpinning its growth trajectory.
Advanced Battery Management
Astera offers the most advanced battery management system in the industry, with runtime capabilities of up to 20 hours.
Bull-Case Price Targets
In-depth analysis suggests a bull-case price target of $288, supported by 78% margins and innovative products like Scorpio switches.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALAB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$417.07
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$84.78
+391.9% from the low
52-Week High
$421.20
-1.0% from the high
1 Month
+93.46%
3 Month
+230.12%
YTD
+132.3%
1 Year
+319.0%
3Y CAGR
+88.7%
5Y CAGR
+46.4%
10Y CAGR
+21.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALAB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
140.3x
vs 77.9x median
+80% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+37.7%
vs +6.6% median
+471% above peer median
Net Margin
26.7%
vs 16.5% median
+62% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALA ALAB Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock | $71.0B | 140.3x | +37.7% | 26.7% | Buy | -42.6% |
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $271.7B | 76.8x | +26.3% | 29.0% | Buy | -22.3% |
CRU CRUS Cirrus Logic, Inc. | $8.4B | 18.2x | +5.4% | 20.7% | Buy | +2.2% |
MTS MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $29.9B | 77.9x | +18.8% | 16.5% | Buy | -7.8% |
ALG ALGM Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $10.9B | 111.0x | +6.6% | -1.7% | Buy | -10.9% |
AXT AXTI AXT, Inc. | $3.7B | 340.6x | +2.2% | -24.1% | Buy | -29.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsALAB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $240, implying -42.6% from the current price of $417. The bear case scenario is $41 and the bull case is $85.
02What is the ALAB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALAB is $240 based on 16 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $297 (-28.8% from today), and the low-end target is $153 (-63.3%). The base case model target is $64.
03Is Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALAB trades at 140.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALAB in 2026 are: (1) Revenue growth sustainability — Despite strong recent revenue growth (93% YoY in Q1 2026), maintaining this trajectory in the competitive semiconductor/AI infrastructure space may prove challenging. (2) Earnings estimate risk — Proprietary models project FY+1 EPS of $1. (3) Market valuation concerns — Stock shows -34. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALAB will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+37.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.47 (-0.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.0B in revenue.
06When does Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) report its next earnings?
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.69 and revenue of $360M. Over recent quarters, ALAB has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock generate?
Astera Labs, Inc. Common Stock (ALAB) generated $343M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.2%. ALAB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).