Upside case
Bull case
$88-77.5%
The bull case prices MTSI at 18x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
15 bullish · 2 bearish · 24 covering MTSI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$361
-7.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$42 – $88
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
77.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.9B
MTSI price targets
Three scenarios for where MTSI stock could go
Current
~$391
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $391
Bear
$42
Base
$67
Bull
$88
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$67-82.9%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$42-89.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 69x multiple contraction could push MTSI down roughly 89% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsOctober year-end
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor components for wireless and wireline communications infrastructure. It generates revenue primarily from sales of RF, microwave, and optical semiconductors—roughly 60% from telecommunications infrastructure and 40% from industrial and defense applications. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in high-performance analog semiconductors for demanding applications like 5G base stations, military radar, and data center interconnects.
Market Cap
$29.9B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
$177M
Net Margin
16.5%
MTSI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.89
Revenue
$252M/$260M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.93
Revenue
$261M/$260M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.02/$0.99
Revenue
$272M/$269M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.09/$1.07
Revenue
$289M/$285M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.90/$0.89 | +1.1% | $252M/$260M | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.93 | +1.2% | $261M/$260M | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.02/$0.99 | +3.0% | $272M/$269M | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09/$1.07 | +1.9% | $289M/$285M | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.3B
+18.8% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+17.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.11
+35.6% YoY
FY2
$3.72
+19.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$168M
FCF Margin: 15.6%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.34
Expected Revenue
$335M
MTSI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MTSI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $730M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
44.9%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 44.9%, up 4.6% YoY.
MTSI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $259 — implies -33.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MTSI
-536.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
2293% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MTSI
-536.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
1948% discount
vs MTSI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-536.2x
vs
5Y Average
75.1x
814% discount
Forward PE
77.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+314%
Technology
22.3x
+250%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-536.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
-2293%
Technology
29.0x
-1948%
5Y Avg
75.1x
-814%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
157.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+932%
Technology
16.6x
+844%
5Y Avg
39.8x
+294%
Price/FCF
154.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+648%
Technology
19.2x
+706%
5Y Avg
41.6x
+272%
Price/Sales
30.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+899%
Technology
2.4x
+1166%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+259%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MTSI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MTSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 77.9x | 18.8x+314% | 22.3x+250% | — |
| Trailing PE | -536.2x | 24.4x-2293% | 29.0x-1948% | 75.1x-814% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 157.0x | 15.2x+932% | 16.6x+844% | 39.8x+294% |
| Price/FCF | 154.9x | 20.7x+648% | 19.2x+706% | 41.6x+272% |
| Price/Sales | 30.9x | 3.1x+899% | 2.4x+1166% | 8.6x+259% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
MTSI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMTSI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MTSI generates $168M in free cash flow at a 15.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+27.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
55.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.29
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$168M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$112M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$426M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$43M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
76M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMTSI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Earnings volatility
Analyst estimates show potential earnings volatility with an EPS FY+1 of $3.36 and revenue growth of 20.8%, indicating uncertainty in future performance.
Medium
Market sentiment risk
Short interest and analyst price targets suggest potential bearish sentiment, which could pressure the stock price.
Lower
Business model scrutiny
Investor relations materials highlight the need for deeper analysis of MACOM's business segments, which may reveal vulnerabilities under scrutiny.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MTSI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue growth
MACOM is projected to achieve 20.8% revenue growth, indicating robust business expansion.
Undervalued in key markets
Francesco Ferrari highlights valuation dislocations in telecom, data center, and defense markets, suggesting upside potential.
Positive analyst sentiment
Bullish theses from analysts like Francesco Ferrari and Oliver | MMMT Wealth emphasize MACOM's growth prospects.
Attractive forward P/E
With a forward P/E of 42.37, MACOM's valuation appears reasonable relative to growth expectations.
Exposure to high-growth sectors
MACOM's focus on telecom, data center, and defense markets positions it well for long-term growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MTSI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$391.41
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$118.16
+231.3% from the low
52-Week High
$418.75
-6.5% from the high
1 Month
+9.87%
3 Month
+78.82%
YTD
+123.7%
1 Year
+191.4%
3Y CAGR
+84.9%
5Y CAGR
+46.2%
10Y CAGR
+27.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MTSI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
77.9x
vs 79.4x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+18.8%
vs +3.3% median
+461% above peer median
Net Margin
16.5%
vs 8.9% median
+84% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTS MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $29.9B | 77.9x | +18.8% | 16.5% | Buy | -7.8% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $60.7B | 103.7x | +13.3% | 17.7% | Buy | +16.0% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $3.3B | 119.3x | +3.3% | -11.5% | Buy | -28.3% |
QRV QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | $9.1B | 15.1x | +2.2% | 9.2% | Hold | -9.7% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 14.5x | +0.2% | 8.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.2B | 79.4x | +13.1% | -6.1% | Buy | -3.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MTSI Dividend and Capital Return
MTSI returns 0.1% annually — null% through dividends and 0.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$43M
Estimated Shares Retired
110.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
76M
FAQ
7 questionsMTSI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $361, implying -7.8% from the current price of $391. The bear case scenario is $42 and the bull case is $88.
02What is the MTSI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MTSI is $361 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $450 (+15.0% from today), and the low-end target is $260 (-33.6%). The base case model target is $67.
03Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MTSI trades at 77.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MTSI in 2026 are: (1) Earnings volatility — Analyst estimates show potential earnings volatility with an EPS FY+1 of $3. (2) Market sentiment risk — Short interest and analyst price targets suggest potential bearish sentiment, which could pressure the stock price. (3) Business model scrutiny — Investor relations materials highlight the need for deeper analysis of MACOM's business segments, which may reveal vulnerabilities under scrutiny. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MTSI will report consensus revenue of $1.3B (+18.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.11 (+35.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) report its next earnings?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.34 and revenue of $335M. Over recent quarters, MTSI has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. generate?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) generated $168M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.6%. MTSI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($43M TTM).