Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing MTSI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
23
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 23 covering MTSI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$254
-18.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
69.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.2B
MTSI price targets
Three scenarios for where MTSI stock could go
Current
~$310
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
MTSI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsOctober year-end
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor components for wireless and wireline communications infrastructure. It generates revenue primarily from sales of RF, microwave, and optical semiconductors—roughly 60% from telecommunications infrastructure and 40% from industrial and defense applications. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in high-performance analog semiconductors for demanding applications like 5G base stations, military radar, and data center interconnects.
Market Cap
$23.2B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$162M
Net Margin
15.9%
MTSI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.85/$0.84
Revenue
$236M/$230M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.89
Revenue
$252M/$260M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.94/$0.93
Revenue
$261M/$260M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.02/$0.99
Revenue
$272M/$269M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.85/$0.84 | +1.1% | $236M/$230M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.90/$0.89 | +1.1% | $252M/$260M | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.94/$0.93 | +1.2% | $261M/$260M | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.02/$0.99 | +3.0% | $272M/$269M | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.2B
+19.8% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+21.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.09
+46.0% YoY
FY2
$3.36
+8.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$133M
FCF Margin: 13.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.07
Expected Revenue
$285M
MTSI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MTSI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $730M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
44.9%
+4.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 44.9%, up 4.6% YoY.
MTSI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $180 — implies -36.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
36.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MTSI
-424.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
1782% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MTSI
-424.4x
vs
Technology
27.2x
1660% discount
vs MTSI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-424.4x
vs
5Y Average
74.9x
667% discount
Forward PE
69.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+263%
Technology
21.7x
+219%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-424.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-1782%
Technology
27.2x
-1660%
5Y Avg
74.9x
-667%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
122.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+706%
Technology
17.3x
+609%
5Y Avg
39.7x
+209%
Price/FCF
120.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+466%
Technology
19.8x
+509%
5Y Avg
41.6x
+190%
Price/Sales
24.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+666%
Technology
2.4x
+891%
5Y Avg
8.6x
+180%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MTSI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MTSI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 69.2x | 19.1x+263% | 21.7x+219% | — |
| Trailing PE | -424.4x | 25.2x-1782% | 27.2x-1660% | 74.9x-667% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 122.7x | 15.2x+706% | 17.3x+609% | 39.7x+209% |
| Price/FCF | 120.5x | 21.3x+466% | 19.8x+509% | 41.6x+190% |
| Price/Sales | 24.0x | 3.1x+666% | 2.4x+891% | 8.6x+180% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.18% | — |
MTSI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMTSI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MTSI generates $133M in free cash flow at a 13.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
15.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$133M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$112M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$426M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$43M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
74M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMTSI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Valuation
MTSI's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting potential overvaluation. Some analyses indicate the stock may be overvalued by as much as 159.6% based on a discounted cash flow model.
High Risk
Cyclical Spending
MTSI's performance is vulnerable to cyclical spending in the telecommunications and defense markets. A slowdown in these sectors could lead to decreased revenue and profitability.
High Risk
AI Vulnerabilities
As MTSI integrates AI into its systems, it faces significant risks such as data poisoning, model manipulation, and adversarial evasion. These vulnerabilities could impact operational integrity and financial performance.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
The semiconductor industry is highly competitive, and MTSI must navigate challenges related to technology shifts and evolving industry dynamics. This competitive pressure could affect market share and profitability.
Medium
Demand Volatility
Demand in the data center and telecom sectors can be volatile, which may lead to fluctuations in MTSI's revenue. Such volatility poses risks to financial stability and growth projections.
Medium
Cash Flow Concerns
There are concerns regarding near-term cash flow and working capital friction for MTSI. These financial pressures could limit operational flexibility and investment opportunities.
Lower
New Product Launch Delays
Delays in new product launches could hinder MTSI's growth trajectory. Such setbacks may affect market competitiveness and revenue generation.
Lower
Economic Downturns
MTSI's exposure to defense and industrial markets carries risks related to budget cuts and economic downturns. These factors could adversely impact revenue and profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MTSI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High-Growth Market Exposure
MTSI is strategically positioned in rapidly expanding markets such as data centers, 5G telecommunications, and defense applications. Its products are crucial for high-speed data transfer in advanced data centers and AI infrastructure, focusing on next-generation 800G and 1.6T optical interconnects.
Diversified Product Portfolio and Technology
MTSI offers a broad range of semiconductor solutions, including high-performance analog, digital, and optical semiconductors. The company's diverse technology portfolio spans silicon, gallium arsenide (GaAs), gallium nitride (GaN), and indium phosphide (InP), optimizing technology selection for specific applications.
Revenue Growth and Profitability
MTSI has demonstrated robust revenue growth, with a reported 32.3% increase in quarterly revenue, reaching $252.1 million. The company has also seen improvements in its gross profit margins, reaching 55.3% for the quarter.
Strategic Acquisitions and R&D
Investment in research and development and strategic acquisitions, such as the acquisition of Engin-IC for GaN MMICs, bolster MTSI's competitive edge and strengthen its position in the AI and data center chip market.
Strong Financial Health
MTSI has a healthy financial position, with short-term assets exceeding short-term and long-term liabilities. The company's debt-to-equity ratio has significantly reduced over the past five years, and its debt is well-covered by operating cash flow.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The consensus among analysts is largely positive, with a significant majority recommending a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy.' Analysts highlight MTSI's poised future growth in the optical systems industry and its well-diversified portfolio.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MTSI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$309.81
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$109.09
+184.0% from the low
52-Week High
$313.26
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+32.94%
3 Month
+31.35%
YTD
+77.1%
1 Year
+179.9%
3Y CAGR
+78.0%
5Y CAGR
+41.7%
10Y CAGR
+23.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MTSI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
69.2x
vs 80.0x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+19.8%
vs +0.8% median
+2247% above peer median
Net Margin
15.9%
vs 8.9% median
+78% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MTS MTSI MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. | $23.2B | 69.2x | +19.8% | 15.9% | Buy | -18.0% |
LIT LITE Lumentum Holdings Inc. | $67.4B | 121.0x | +21.6% | 12.0% | Buy | -31.9% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $2.3B | 93.2x | +0.8% | -11.5% | Buy | +0.3% |
QRV QRVO Qorvo, Inc. | $8.2B | 13.7x | -2.1% | 9.2% | Hold | -4.1% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $9.8B | 13.8x | -4.9% | 8.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.1B | 80.0x | +16.7% | -8.3% | Buy | -2.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MTSI Dividend and Capital Return
MTSI returns 0.2% annually — null% through dividends and 0.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$43M
Estimated Shares Retired
139.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
74M
FAQ
7 questionsMTSI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $254, implying -18.0% from the current price of $310.
02What is the MTSI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MTSI is $254 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $300 (-3.2% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-43.5%).
03Is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock overvalued in 2026?
MTSI trades at 69.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MTSI in 2026 are: (1) High Valuation — MTSI's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is significantly higher than the industry average, suggesting potential overvaluation. (2) Cyclical Spending — MTSI's performance is vulnerable to cyclical spending in the telecommunications and defense markets. (3) AI Vulnerabilities — As MTSI integrates AI into its systems, it faces significant risks such as data poisoning, model manipulation, and adversarial evasion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MTSI will report consensus revenue of $1.2B (+19.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.09 (+46.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) report its next earnings?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.07 and revenue of $285M. Over recent quarters, MTSI has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. generate?
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) generated $133M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.0%. MTSI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($43M TTM).