Upside case
Bull case
$178-42.7%
The bull case prices MRVL at 44x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
73
analysts
60 bullish · 1 bearish · 73 covering MRVL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
60
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$241
-22.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$85 – $178
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
73
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
76.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $271.7B
MRVL price targets
Three scenarios for where MRVL stock could go
Current
~$311
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $311
Bear
$85
Base
$135
Bull
$178
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$135-56.5%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$85-72.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 56x multiple contraction could push MRVL down roughly 73% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marvell Technology, Inc.
MRVL · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
Marvell Technology is a semiconductor company that designs and sells data infrastructure chips for data centers, enterprise networking, and automotive applications. It generates revenue primarily from data center products (~40%), enterprise networking (~30%), and carrier infrastructure (~20%), with the remainder from consumer and automotive segments. The company's moat lies in its specialized expertise in data processing, storage, and networking semiconductors—particularly in high-growth areas like cloud computing and AI infrastructure.
Market Cap
$271.7B
Revenue TTM
$8.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
29.0%
MRVL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+1.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.67
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.76/$0.74
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.80/$0.79
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.80/$0.80
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.67/$0.67 | -0.4% | $2.0B/$2.0B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.76/$0.74 | +2.3% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.80/$0.79 | +1.0% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.80/$0.80 | +0.3% | $2.4B/$2.4B | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+26.3% YoY
FY2
$14.1B
+28.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.59
-8.5% YoY
FY2
$3.00
+15.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 19.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MRVL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MRVL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $6.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Data Center
100.0%
+46.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
36.2%
+18.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Data Center is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2026 revenue, up 46.5% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 36.2%, up 18.4% YoY.
MRVL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $145 — implies -53.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
53.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MRVL
101.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+314% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
MRVL
101.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+249% premium
vs MRVL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
101.2x
vs
5Y Average
25.7x
+294% premium
Forward PE
76.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+308%
Technology
22.3x
+245%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
101.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+314%
Technology
29.0x
+249%
5Y Avg
25.7x
+294%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
104.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+585%
Technology
16.6x
+527%
5Y Avg
48.5x
+115%
Price/FCF
194.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+840%
Technology
19.2x
+913%
5Y Avg
60.2x
+223%
Price/Sales
33.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+972%
Technology
2.4x
+1260%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+202%
Dividend Yield
0.08%
S&P 500
1.91%
-96%
Technology
1.11%
-93%
5Y Avg
0.35%
-78%
| Metric | MRVL | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg MRVL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 76.8x | 18.8x+308% | 22.3x+245% | — |
| Trailing PE | 101.2x | 24.4x+314% | 29.0x+249% | 25.7x+294% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 104.2x | 15.2x+585% | 16.6x+527% | 48.5x+115% |
| Price/FCF | 194.6x | 20.7x+840% | 19.2x+913% | 60.2x+223% |
| Price/Sales | 33.2x | 3.1x+972% | 2.4x+1260% | 11.0x+202% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.08% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.35% |
MRVL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMRVL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MRVL generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 19.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+34.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.83
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.8%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.8%
Dividend
0.1%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
875M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMRVL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Market Sensitivity
Marvell Technology is highly sensitive to execution risks in concentrated, capital-intensive markets with demanding technical requirements.
High Risk
Systemic Shock Impact
During 15 major systemic shocks, Marvell Technology experienced an average drawdown of -31%, significantly worse than the S&P 500's -16% decline.
Medium
Valuation Risk
The DCF model indicates Marvell's current price represents a -33% margin of safety relative to intrinsic value, suggesting overvaluation in the bear case.
Medium
Customer Concentration
The company faces risks from customer concentration, which could impact revenue stability and growth prospects.
Medium
Supply Chain Dependency
Marvell's operations are vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, which could affect product timing and delivery.
Lower
Product Timing Risk
The company's performance is partially dependent on successful product launches and timing, which carries inherent uncertainty.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MRVL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Data center-driven growth
Marvell Technology's growth is heavily driven by its data center solutions, which are a key focus of bullish investment theses.
Custom ASIC expansion
The company's expansion in custom ASICs is highlighted as a significant driver for future growth and competitive advantage.
Electro-optics solutions strength
Marvell's strong electro-optics solutions are noted as a bullish factor, contributing to its technological leadership and market position.
AI monetization catalyst
The company's potential to monetize AI technologies is seen as a catalyst for future stock performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MRVL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$310.58
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.44
+405.5% from the low
52-Week High
$329.88
-5.9% from the high
1 Month
+83.85%
3 Month
+254.46%
YTD
+247.4%
1 Year
+314.4%
3Y CAGR
+72.2%
5Y CAGR
+41.7%
10Y CAGR
+40.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MRVL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
76.8x
vs 35.5x median
+116% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.3%
vs +4.6% median
+468% above peer median
Net Margin
29.0%
vs 22.1% median
+31% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MRV MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | $271.7B | 76.8x | +26.3% | 29.0% | Buy | -22.3% |
AVG AVGO Broadcom Inc. | $1.96T | 35.5x | +19.9% | 42.2% | Buy | +21.1% |
QCO QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated | $238.3B | 21.1x | +4.6% | 22.3% | Hold | -15.5% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
SWK SWKS Skyworks Solutions, Inc. | $10.9B | 14.5x | +0.2% | 8.9% | Buy | -0.2% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $76.8B | 65.2x | +21.3% | 22.1% | Buy | +3.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MRVL Dividend and Capital Return
MRVL returns capital mainly through $2.0B/year in buybacks (0.8% buyback yield), with a modest 0.08% dividend — combining for 0.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
0.08%
Payout Ratio
7.7%
How MRVL Splits Its Return
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 0.08%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
875M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.12 | — | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| 2025 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% |
| 2024 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 2023 | $0.24 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% |
| 2022 | $0.24 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMRVL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 73 analysts covering the stock, 60 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $241, implying -22.3% from the current price of $311. The bear case scenario is $85 and the bull case is $178.
02What is the MRVL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MRVL is $241 based on 73 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $385 (+24.0% from today), and the low-end target is $155 (-50.1%). The base case model target is $135.
03Is Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) stock overvalued in 2026?
MRVL trades at 76.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MRVL in 2026 are: (1) Market Sensitivity — Marvell Technology is highly sensitive to execution risks in concentrated, capital-intensive markets with demanding technical requirements. (2) Systemic Shock Impact — During 15 major systemic shocks, Marvell Technology experienced an average drawdown of -31%, significantly worse than the S&P 500's -16% decline. (3) Valuation Risk — The DCF model indicates Marvell's current price represents a -33% margin of safety relative to intrinsic value, suggesting overvaluation in the bear case. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marvell Technology, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MRVL will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+26.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.59 (-8.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.1B in revenue.
06When does Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MRVL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Marvell Technology, Inc. generate?
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.1%. MRVL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.1% yield) and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).