Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ALGM more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering ALGM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
-12.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
96.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
ALGM price targets
Three scenarios for where ALGM stock could go
Current
~$51
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.
ALGM · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsMarch year-end
Allegro MicroSystems designs and manufactures specialized sensor and power integrated circuits for motion control and energy-efficient systems. It generates revenue primarily from automotive applications — roughly 70% of sales — and industrial markets through magnetic sensors, motor drivers, and power management ICs. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in magnetic sensing technology and long-standing relationships with automotive OEMs in safety-critical applications.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$840M
Net Income TTM
-$13M
Net Margin
-1.6%
ALGM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.06/$0.05
Revenue
$193M/$194M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.09
Revenue
$203M/$209M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$214M/$216M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.14
Revenue
$229M/$221M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.06/$0.05 | +20.0% | $193M/$194M | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.09 | +0.0% | $203M/$209M | -2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.13/$0.12 | +8.3% | $214M/$216M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15/$0.14 | +7.1% | $229M/$221M | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$749M
-10.8% YoY
FY2
$682M
-9.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.11
+256.1% YoY
FY2
$0.19
+73.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$121M
FCF Margin: 14.4%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.16
Expected Revenue
$236M
ALGM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALGM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $725M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Magnetic Sensors And Other
65.5%
-27.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
25.2%
-33.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Magnetic Sensors And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 65.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 27.0% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 25.2%, down 33.4% YoY.
ALGM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $16 — implies -68.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
68.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALGM
-131.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
622% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ALGM
-131.7x
vs
Technology
27.5x
579% discount
vs ALGM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-131.7x
vs
5Y Average
43.3x
404% discount
Forward PE
96.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+407%
Technology
21.7x
+346%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-131.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-622%
Technology
27.5x
-579%
5Y Avg
43.3x
-404%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
218.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1332%
Technology
17.4x
+1157%
5Y Avg
40.0x
+446%
Price/FCF
433.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1931%
Technology
19.8x
+2089%
5Y Avg
74.4x
+483%
Price/Sales
13.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+319%
Technology
2.4x
+444%
5Y Avg
7.2x
+81%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
8.32%
—
| Metric | ALGM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ALGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 96.7x | 19.1x+407% | 21.7x+346% | — |
| Trailing PE | -131.7x | 25.2x-622% | 27.5x-579% | 43.3x-404% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 218.4x | 15.3x+1332% | 17.4x+1157% | 40.0x+446% |
| Price/FCF | 433.3x | 21.3x+1931% | 19.8x+2089% | 74.4x+483% |
| Price/Sales | 13.1x | 3.1x+319% | 2.4x+444% | 7.2x+81% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | 8.32% |
ALGM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALGM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ALGM generates $121M in free cash flow at a 14.4% margin — returns 9.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$840M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-0.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$121M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-1.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$121M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$247M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.0× FCF
~2.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-1.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
9.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$854M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
188M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageALGM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
CHINA exposure
CHINA represents 25.2% of disclosed revenue and changed -33.4% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
High Risk
Magnetic Sensors And Other dependence
Magnetic Sensors And Other contributes 65.5% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at -27.0%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
ALGM trades at -131.7x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 27.5x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $749M in revenue (-10.8% growth) and $0.11 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $121M in trailing free cash flow, a 9.0% buyback yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALGM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with 45.0% gross margin, -0.0% operating margin, and $121M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Magnetic Sensors And Other still matters
Magnetic Sensors And Other accounts for 65.5% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was -27.0%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $45, or -12.7% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $749M in forward revenue and $0.11 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 9.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALGM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.37
52W Range Position
100%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$18.17
+182.7% from the low
52-Week High
$51.40
-0.1% from the high
1 Month
+56.57%
3 Month
+23.57%
YTD
+90.9%
1 Year
+170.9%
3Y CAGR
+10.9%
5Y CAGR
+15.6%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALGM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
96.7x
vs 50.0x median
+93% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-10.8%
vs +10.5% median
-202% below peer median
Net Margin
-1.6%
vs 22.1% median
-107% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALG ALGM Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $9.5B | 96.7x | -10.8% | -1.6% | Buy | -12.7% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $81.2B | 76.7x | +22.7% | 22.1% | Buy | -2.3% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.3B | 50.0x | +6.1% | 4.5% | Buy | -36.2% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.4B | 60.5x | +0.0% | 5.0% | Buy | +1.0% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $263.5B | 38.3x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -12.3% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $202.9B | 36.4x | +16.0% | 23.0% | Buy | -9.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALGM Dividend and Capital Return
ALGM returns 9.0% annually — null% through dividends and 9.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
9.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$854M
Estimated Shares Retired
17M
Approx. Share Reduction
8.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
188M
At 8.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsALGM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying -12.7% from the current price of $51.
02What is the ALGM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALGM is $45 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $51 (-0.7% from today), and the low-end target is $38 (-26.0%).
03Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALGM trades at 96.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALGM in 2026 are: (1) CHINA exposure — CHINA represents 25. (2) Magnetic Sensors And Other dependence — Magnetic Sensors And Other contributes 65. (3) Valuation de-rating — ALGM trades at -131. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALGM will report consensus revenue of $749M (-10.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.11 (+256.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $682M in revenue.
06When does Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) report its next earnings?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $236M. Over recent quarters, ALGM has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. generate?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) generated $121M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.4%. ALGM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($854M TTM).