Upside case
Bull case
$10-83.3%
The bull case prices ALGM at 19x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
13 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering ALGM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$53
-10.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $10
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
111.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
ALGM price targets
Three scenarios for where ALGM stock could go
Current
~$59
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $59
Bear
$5
Base
$7
Bull
$10
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$7-87.4%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-92.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 102x multiple contraction could push ALGM down roughly 92% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.
ALGM · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsMarch year-end
Allegro MicroSystems designs and manufactures specialized sensor and power integrated circuits for motion control and energy-efficient systems. It generates revenue primarily from automotive applications — roughly 70% of sales — and industrial markets through magnetic sensors, motor drivers, and power management ICs. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in magnetic sensing technology and long-standing relationships with automotive OEMs in safety-critical applications.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$890M
Net Income TTM
-$15M
Net Margin
-1.7%
ALGM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.09/$0.09
Revenue
$203M/$209M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.12
Revenue
$214M/$216M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.15/$0.14
Revenue
$229M/$221M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.17/$0.16
Revenue
$243M/$236M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.09/$0.09 | +0.0% | $203M/$209M | -2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.13/$0.12 | +8.3% | $214M/$216M | -0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.15/$0.14 | +7.1% | $229M/$221M | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.17/$0.16 | +4.2% | $243M/$236M | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$949M
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$1.0B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.19
+340.8% YoY
FY2
$0.41
+114.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$125M
FCF Margin: 14.0%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.21
Expected Revenue
$251M
ALGM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ALGM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $725M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Magnetic Sensors And Other
65.5%
-27.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
25.2%
-33.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Magnetic Sensors And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 65.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 27.0% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 25.2%, down 33.4% YoY.
ALGM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -30.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALGM
-732.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
3098% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ALGM
-732.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
2627% discount
vs ALGM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-732.9x
vs
5Y Average
43.3x
1793% discount
Forward PE
111.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+490%
Technology
22.3x
+399%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-732.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-3098%
Technology
29.0x
-2627%
5Y Avg
43.3x
-1793%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
100.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+559%
Technology
16.6x
+503%
5Y Avg
33.8x
+197%
Price/FCF
87.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+323%
Technology
19.2x
+356%
5Y Avg
70.5x
+24%
Price/Sales
12.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+297%
Technology
2.4x
+404%
5Y Avg
6.9x
+79%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALGM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ALGM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 111.0x | 18.8x+490% | 22.3x+399% | — |
| Trailing PE | -732.9x | 24.4x-3098% | 29.0x-2627% | 43.3x-1793% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 100.2x | 15.2x+559% | 16.6x+503% | 33.8x+197% |
| Price/FCF | 87.5x | 20.7x+323% | 19.2x+356% | 70.5x+24% |
| Price/Sales | 12.3x | 3.1x+297% | 2.4x+404% | 6.9x+79% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
ALGM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALGM Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ALGM generates $125M in free cash flow at a 14.0% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$890M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+22.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
46.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-1.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.08
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$125M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$169M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$119M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-1.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
185M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALGM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Industrial Revenue Decline
A 25% decline in industrial revenue highlights significant challenges in the company's core markets.
Medium
Market Volatility
The bear case suggests potential valuation de-rating and stock price downside despite growth projections.
Medium
Growth Cycle Risks
While positioned for growth in automotive and robotics, execution risks remain in scaling operations.
Lower
Cash Flow Uncertainty
Projected free cash flow growth may face headwinds from macroeconomic or industry-specific factors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALGM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Nvidia sector sentiment boost
Allegro MicroSystems' stock rose 8.2% following Nvidia's investment in Marvell, lifting overall sector sentiment.
Strong semiconductor solutions focus
The company specializes in high-performance power and sensing integrated circuits, enabling precise motion control and energy-efficient power management.
Compelling valuation upside
At 30x-35x earnings, the stock could support $60-$70, with further upside if FY28/FY29 EPS estimates reach $1.75.
Bullish analyst thesis
Analysts have highlighted a strong bull case for Allegro MicroSystems, with shares trading at $28.41 as of early October.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALGM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$59.00
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.41
+163.3% from the low
52-Week High
$59.55
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+42.68%
3 Month
+87.18%
YTD
+119.2%
1 Year
+89.9%
3Y CAGR
+12.2%
5Y CAGR
+17.3%
10Y CAGR
+12.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALGM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
111.0x
vs 45.5x median
+144% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.6%
vs +9.7% median
-32% below peer median
Net Margin
-1.7%
vs 22.1% median
-108% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALG ALGM Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. | $10.9B | 111.0x | +6.6% | -1.7% | Buy | -10.9% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $76.8B | 65.2x | +21.3% | 22.1% | Buy | +3.3% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.5B | 45.5x | +7.7% | 5.5% | Buy | +0.5% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.9B | 65.3x | +2.9% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.3% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $211.6B | 35.4x | +12.7% | 26.0% | Buy | +2.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALGM Dividend and Capital Return
ALGM does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2M
Estimated Shares Retired
29.0K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
185M
FAQ
7 questionsALGM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $53, implying -10.9% from the current price of $59. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $10.
02What is the ALGM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALGM is $53 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $62 (+5.1% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (-23.7%). The base case model target is $7.
03Is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALGM trades at 111.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALGM in 2026 are: (1) Industrial Revenue Decline — A 25% decline in industrial revenue highlights significant challenges in the company's core markets. (2) Market Volatility — The bear case suggests potential valuation de-rating and stock price downside despite growth projections. (3) Growth Cycle Risks — While positioned for growth in automotive and robotics, execution risks remain in scaling operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Allegro MicroSystems, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALGM will report consensus revenue of $949M (+6.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.19 (+340.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.0B in revenue.
06When does Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) report its next earnings?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.21 and revenue of $251M. Over recent quarters, ALGM has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. generate?
Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. (ALGM) generated $125M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.0%. ALGM returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2M TTM).