Upside case
Bull case
$129+99.1%
ALC would need investors to value it at roughly 38x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Alcon Inc. (ALC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
14 bullish · 2 bearish · 26 covering ALC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$82
+26.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$62 – $129
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.5B
ALC price targets
Three scenarios for where ALC stock could go
Current
~$65
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $65
Bear
$62
Base
$98
Bull
$129
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$98+51.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$62-4.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push ALC down roughly 5% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alcon Inc.
ALC · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesDecember year-end
Alcon is a global eye care company that develops and sells surgical equipment, intraocular lenses, and vision care products for eye care professionals and patients. It generates revenue primarily through its Surgical segment — including equipment, implants, and consumables for cataract and refractive procedures — and its Vision Care segment for contact lenses and solutions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its comprehensive portfolio across the entire eye care continuum, from surgical equipment to daily vision correction, creating strong relationships with eye care professionals.
Market Cap
$31.5B
Revenue TTM
$10.6B
Net Income TTM
$815M
Net Margin
7.7%
ALC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.76/$0.71
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.79/$0.77
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.78/$0.79
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.85/$0.80
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.76/$0.71 | +7.0% | $2.6B/$2.7B | -2.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.79/$0.77 | +2.6% | $2.6B/$2.7B | -3.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.78/$0.79 | -1.3% | $2.6B/$2.7B | -1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.85/$0.80 | +6.3% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$11.5B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.61
+57.2% YoY
FY2
$2.89
+10.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 16.1%
Next Earnings
August 10, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.79
Expected Revenue
$2.7B
ALC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ALC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Geographic Areas
35.4%
+6.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
International Geographic Areas is the largest reported region at 35.4%, up 6.3% YoY.
ALC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $74 — implies +14.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALC
32.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+34% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ALC
32.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+48% premium
vs ALC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.7x
vs
5Y Average
67.3x
51% discount
Forward PE
19.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+1%
Healthcare
18.3x
+4%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+34%
Healthcare
22.1x
+48%
5Y Avg
67.3x
-51%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-9%
Healthcare
14.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
19.8x
-30%
Price/FCF
18.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-12%
Healthcare
18.5x
-2%
5Y Avg
49.2x
-63%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-2%
Healthcare
2.6x
+15%
5Y Avg
4.2x
-28%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
S&P 500
1.91%
-73%
Healthcare
1.50%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.29%
+77%
| Metric | ALC | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ALC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.0x | 18.8x | 18.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.7x | 24.4x+34% | 22.1x+48% | 67.3x-51% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.8x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 19.8x-30% |
| Price/FCF | 18.2x | 20.7x-12% | 18.5x | 49.2x-63% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.6x+15% | 4.2x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.52% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 0.29% |
ALC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ALC generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 16.1% margin — returns 2.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.66
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.2× FCF
~2.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.8%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
2.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$723M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.33
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
16.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
487M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageALC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Earnings uncertainty
Projected EPS for the next fiscal year has a confidence score of only 54/100, indicating significant uncertainty in revenue trajectory and margin path.
High Risk
Stock price downside risk
AI models forecast a 2026 price target of $59.26, representing a 10% decline from current levels, with bear scenarios suggesting further downside.
Lower
Competitive innovation pressure
The company faces ongoing pressure to deliver bold innovation in vision care products to maintain market leadership against competitors.
Medium
Macroeconomic sensitivity
As a medical device and pharmaceutical company, Alcon's performance may be sensitive to healthcare spending trends and reimbursement policies.
Lower
Product concentration risk
Reliance on key products like intraocular lenses and eye allergy drops exposes the company to shifts in consumer preferences or treatment alternatives.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Innovative vision products
Alcon's mission focuses on providing cutting-edge vision products that improve quality of life, from cataract solutions to dry eye relief.
Leadership in ophthalmology
The company maintains a strong position in surgical and vision care, supported by a robust innovation pipeline and exposure to long-term growth in ophthalmology.
Cataract surgery solutions
Alcon's intraocular lenses offer advanced solutions for cataract patients, enabling a full range of vision post-surgery.
Vision care innovation
Alcon continues to drive innovation in contact lenses and eye care products, including lifestyle-matched contact lenses and top-selling allergy relief drops.
Secular growth exposure
The company benefits from structural growth trends in eye care, supported by increasing demand for vision-enhancing products and surgical solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$64.68
52W Range Position
9%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$61.84
+4.6% from the low
52-Week High
$92.55
-30.1% from the high
1 Month
-1.96%
3 Month
-14.60%
YTD
-16.6%
1 Year
-23.7%
3Y CAGR
-7.0%
5Y CAGR
-1.6%
10Y CAGR
+1.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.0x
vs 17.2x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.3%
vs +5.5% median
-21% below peer median
Net Margin
7.7%
vs 13.2% median
-42% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALC ALC Alcon Inc. | $31.5B | 19.0x | +4.3% | 7.7% | Buy | +26.3% |
BAX BAX Baxter International Inc. | $10.3B | 10.4x | +2.3% | -9.7% | Hold | +4.1% |
HSI HSIC Henry Schein, Inc. | $9.2B | 14.9x | +5.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +9.4% |
HOL HOLX Hologic, Inc. | $17.0B | 17.2x | +4.3% | 13.2% | Hold | +3.5% |
IDX IDXX IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | $44.6B | 38.3x | +9.9% | 24.6% | Buy | +33.0% |
EW EW Edwards Lifesciences Corporation | $50.4B | 29.0x | +9.8% | 17.6% | Buy | +10.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ALC Dividend and Capital Return
ALC returns capital mainly through $723M/year in buybacks (2.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.52% dividend — combining for 2.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.3%
Dividend Yield
0.52%
Payout Ratio
16.9%
How ALC Splits Its Return
Div 0.52%
Buyback 2.3%
Dividend 0.52%Buybacks 2.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.33
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
48.2%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$723M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
487M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.59 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.67 | +151.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% |
| 2024 | $0.26 | +12.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| 2023 | $0.24 | +15.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| 2022 | $0.20 | +86.9% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsALC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alcon Inc. (ALC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alcon Inc. (ALC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $82, implying +26.3% from the current price of $65. The bear case scenario is $62 and the bull case is $129.
02What is the ALC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALC is $82 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $97 (+50.0% from today), and the low-end target is $70 (+8.2%). The base case model target is $98.
03Is Alcon Inc. (ALC) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALC trades at 19.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alcon Inc. (ALC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALC in 2026 are: (1) Stock price downside risk — AI models forecast a 2026 price target of $59. (2) Earnings uncertainty — Projected EPS for the next fiscal year has a confidence score of only 54/100, indicating significant uncertainty in revenue trajectory and margin path. (3) Macroeconomic sensitivity — As a medical device and pharmaceutical company, Alcon's performance may be sensitive to healthcare spending trends and reimbursement policies. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alcon Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALC will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+4.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.61 (+57.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.5B in revenue.
06When does Alcon Inc. (ALC) report its next earnings?
Alcon Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-10. Consensus expects EPS of $0.79 and revenue of $2.7B. Over recent quarters, ALC has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Alcon Inc. generate?
Alcon Inc. (ALC) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.1%. ALC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($723M TTM).