Upside case
Bull case
$502+55.5%
TXN would need investors to value it at roughly 65x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 42x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
65
analysts
31 bullish · 7 bearish · 65 covering TXN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
27
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$274
-15.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$240 – $502
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
65
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
41.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $294.0B
TXN price targets
Three scenarios for where TXN stock could go
Current
~$323
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $323
Bear
$240
Base
$381
Bull
$502
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$381+18.0%
At 49x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$240-25.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 11x multiple contraction could push TXN down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Texas Instruments is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing chips for industrial, automotive, and consumer electronics applications. It generates revenue primarily from analog chips (~75% of sales) and embedded processors (~25%), selling directly to electronics manufacturers across multiple industries. The company's competitive advantage stems from its deep expertise in analog technology—which is difficult to replicate—and its efficient manufacturing scale through its own fabrication facilities.
Market Cap
$294.0B
Revenue TTM
$18.4B
Net Income TTM
$5.4B
Net Margin
29.1%
TXN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.41/$1.36
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.48/$1.49
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.29
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.68/$1.36
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.41/$1.36 | +3.7% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48/$1.49 | -0.7% | $4.7B/$4.6B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.29 | -1.6% | $4.4B/$4.4B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.68/$1.36 | +23.5% | $4.8B/$4.5B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.2B
+9.7% YoY
FY2
$22.6B
+11.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.39
+25.8% YoY
FY2
$8.47
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.7B
FCF Margin: 20.2%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.90
Expected Revenue
$5.2B
TXN beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TXN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Analog
83.9%
+15.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
38.2%
+13.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Analog is the largest disclosed segment at 83.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 38.2%, up 13.5% YoY.
TXN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $331 — implies +2.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TXN
59.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+142% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TXN
59.2x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+104% premium
vs TXN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
59.2x
vs
5Y Average
26.5x
+124% premium
Forward PE
41.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
+123%
Technology
22.3x
+88%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
59.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+142%
Technology
29.0x
+104%
5Y Avg
26.5x
+124%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
38.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+151%
Technology
16.6x
+130%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+92%
Price/FCF
112.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+446%
Technology
19.2x
+488%
5Y Avg
69.1x
+63%
Price/Sales
16.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+438%
Technology
2.4x
+582%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+80%
Dividend Yield
1.70%
S&P 500
1.91%
-11%
Technology
1.11%
+53%
5Y Avg
2.77%
-39%
| Metric | TXN | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TXN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 41.9x | 18.8x+123% | 22.3x+88% | — |
| Trailing PE | 59.2x | 24.4x+142% | 29.0x+104% | 26.5x+124% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.2x | 15.2x+151% | 16.6x+130% | 19.8x+92% |
| Price/FCF | 112.9x | 20.7x+446% | 19.2x+488% | 69.1x+63% |
| Price/Sales | 16.6x | 3.1x+438% | 2.4x+582% | 9.2x+80% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.70% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 2.77% |
TXN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTXN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TXN generates $3.7B in free cash flow at a 20.2% margin — 15.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
100.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
910M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTXN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Financial Risk
Texas Instruments faces significant financial risk from high debt levels and a substantial dividend payout, which could strain cash flows.
High Risk
Market Volatility
During major systemic shocks, TXN stock experienced an average drawdown of -19%, underperforming the S&P 500's -16% decline.
Medium
Regulatory and SEC Risks
The company's 10-K filing highlights consequential risk factors beyond standard boilerplate, indicating heightened regulatory and operational pressures.
Medium
Investment Uncertainty
With 18 disclosed risk factors, investors must weigh worst-case scenarios, as categorized by proprietary risk analysis tools.
Lower
Long-term Viability
Analyst sentiment and projections for TXN's stock price beyond 2025 suggest concerns over its long-term growth trajectory.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TXN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Analog revenue stabilization
Early signs of analog revenue stabilization indicate a potential turnaround in Texas Instruments' financial performance.
Strategic manufacturing investments
The company's strategic investments in manufacturing are expected to enhance long-term operational efficiency and competitiveness.
Durable analog leadership
Texas Instruments maintains a strong leadership position in the analog semiconductor market, underpinning its durable franchise.
300-mm expansion advantages
The nearly completed 300-mm wafer expansion is anticipated to provide long-term cost and capacity advantages.
Free-cash-flow recovery
Analysts project a recovery in free cash flow post-2026, supporting a constructive long-term outlook despite current earnings pressure.
Cyclical recovery
A slow cyclical recovery in the semiconductor industry is expected to benefit Texas Instruments' revenue and profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TXN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$322.86
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.73
+111.4% from the low
52-Week High
$331.51
-2.6% from the high
1 Month
+7.41%
3 Month
+69.23%
YTD
+81.9%
1 Year
+62.8%
3Y CAGR
+22.8%
5Y CAGR
+12.0%
10Y CAGR
+17.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TXN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
41.9x
vs 39.4x median
+6% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.7%
vs +3.2% median
+206% above peer median
Net Margin
29.1%
vs 9.5% median
+208% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $211.6B | 35.4x | +12.7% | 26.0% | Buy | +2.3% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $69.7B | 61.0x | +3.2% | 1.2% | Buy | -4.5% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $79.1B | 21.3x | +6.8% | 21.0% | Buy | -22.6% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $47.7B | 39.4x | +2.8% | 9.5% | Buy | -22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TXN Dividend and Capital Return
TXN returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 1.70% dividend, raised 22 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
1.70%
Payout Ratio
100.0%
How TXN Splits Its Return
Div 1.70%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 1.70%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
8.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
910M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.50 | +4.6% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $5.26 | +4.8% | 0.5% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $5.02 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| 2022 | $4.69 | +11.4% | 2.4% | 5.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTXN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 65 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 27 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $274, implying -15.1% from the current price of $323. The bear case scenario is $240 and the bull case is $502.
02What is the TXN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TXN is $274 based on 65 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $400 (+23.9% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-45.8%). The base case model target is $381.
03Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock overvalued in 2026?
TXN trades at 41.9x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TXN in 2026 are: (1) Financial Risk — Texas Instruments faces significant financial risk from high debt levels and a substantial dividend payout, which could strain cash flows. (2) Market Volatility — During major systemic shocks, TXN stock experienced an average drawdown of -19%, underperforming the S&P 500's -16% decline. (3) Regulatory and SEC Risks — The company's 10-K filing highlights consequential risk factors beyond standard boilerplate, indicating heightened regulatory and operational pressures. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Instruments Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TXN will report consensus revenue of $20.2B (+9.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.39 (+25.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.6B in revenue.
06When does Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) report its next earnings?
Texas Instruments Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $1.90 and revenue of $5.2B. Over recent quarters, TXN has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Instruments Incorporated generate?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.2%. TXN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).