Upside case
Bull case
$619+120.3%
TXN would need investors to value it at roughly 82x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
65
analysts
30 bullish · 7 bearish · 65 covering TXN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
30
Hold
28
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$254
-9.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$221 – $619
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
65
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $255.7B
TXN price targets
Three scenarios for where TXN stock could go
Current
~$281
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $281
Bear
$221
Base
$406
Bull
$619
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$406+44.7%
At 54x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$221-21.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push TXN down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Instruments Incorporated
TXN · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Texas Instruments is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog and embedded processing chips for industrial, automotive, and consumer electronics applications. It generates revenue primarily from analog chips (~75% of sales) and embedded processors (~25%), selling directly to electronics manufacturers across multiple industries. The company's competitive advantage stems from its deep expertise in analog technology—which is difficult to replicate—and its efficient manufacturing scale through its own fabrication facilities.
Market Cap
$255.7B
Revenue TTM
$18.4B
Net Income TTM
$5.4B
Net Margin
29.1%
TXN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.41/$1.36
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.48/$1.49
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.29
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.68/$1.36
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.41/$1.36 | +3.7% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.48/$1.49 | -0.7% | $4.7B/$4.6B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.29 | -1.6% | $4.4B/$4.4B | -0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.68/$1.36 | +23.5% | $4.8B/$4.5B | +6.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.4B
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$21.9B
+7.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.15
+21.8% YoY
FY2
$7.89
+10.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.7B
FCF Margin: 20.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TXN beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TXN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $16.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Analog
83.9%
+15.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
38.2%
+13.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Analog is the largest disclosed segment at 83.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 38.2%, up 13.5% YoY.
TXN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $280 — implies -0.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TXN
51.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+105% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TXN
51.5x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+93% premium
vs TXN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
51.5x
vs
5Y Average
26.5x
+95% premium
Forward PE
37.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+95%
Technology
22.1x
+68%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
51.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+105%
Technology
26.7x
+93%
5Y Avg
26.5x
+95%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
33.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+119%
Technology
17.5x
+91%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+68%
Price/FCF
98.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+366%
Technology
19.5x
+403%
5Y Avg
69.1x
+42%
Price/Sales
14.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+363%
Technology
2.4x
+492%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+57%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
S&P 500
1.87%
+4%
Technology
1.16%
+68%
5Y Avg
2.77%
-30%
| Metric | TXN | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TXN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.2x | 19.1x+95% | 22.1x+68% | — |
| Trailing PE | 51.5x | 25.1x+105% | 26.7x+93% | 26.5x+95% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.4x | 15.2x+119% | 17.5x+91% | 19.8x+68% |
| Price/FCF | 98.2x | 21.1x+366% | 19.5x+403% | 69.1x+42% |
| Price/Sales | 14.5x | 3.1x+363% | 2.4x+492% | 9.2x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.95% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 2.77% |
TXN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTXN Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TXN generates $3.7B in free cash flow at a 20.2% margin — 15.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
57.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
35.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.87
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
20.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
15.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
32.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.5%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.48
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
100.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
910M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTXN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Pressure in Core Segments
TXN’s Analog and Embedded Processing businesses, which account for a significant portion of revenue, face intense competition from rivals heavily investing in AI and high‑growth areas. Loss of market share in these segments could erode margins and long‑term profitability.
High Risk
Cyclical Demand Sensitivity
The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical; macroeconomic downturns can sharply reduce demand for TXN’s industrial and automotive chips, directly impacting revenue and earnings.
High Risk
Core Segment Market Share Decline
TXN is experiencing declining market share in its Analog and Embedded Processing lines, raising concerns about its competitive positioning and potential erosion of revenue streams.
Medium
Technological Obsolescence Risk
Rapid tech evolution in semiconductors threatens obsolescence; TXN’s limited exposure to the AI capital‑expenditure cycle may limit growth relative to competitors.
Medium
Geopolitical & Trade Risk
Trade policy shifts and investigations, such as a Chinese probe into US‑imported analog chips and allegations of chip diversion to Russian weapons, create operational uncertainty, though current impact on revenue is estimated minimal.
Medium
Revenue Growth & Valuation
TXN’s 3‑year revenue growth rate is -3.6%, and its P/E ratio sits near a 10‑year high, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential downside. Insider selling activity has also been noted.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TXN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analog & Embedded Processing Leadership
Texas Instruments dominates the analog and embedded processing chip market, supplying the "brains" that manage power and translate real‑world signals in a wide array of electronic devices. The company offers tens of thousands of products to a diversified customer base of over 100,000 clients, reducing dependence on any single market.
Industrial & Automotive Demand Focus
A large portion of TXN’s revenue comes from industrial and automotive sectors, which feature long product lifecycles and secular growth. These segments provide durable demand visibility and are prioritized for their high growth potential.
U.S. 300‑mm Wafer Manufacturing Expansion
TXN is investing heavily in expanding its 300‑millimeter wafer fabrication capacity in the United States, creating a vertical integration advantage. The multiyear capacity‑expansion cycle is temporarily suppressing free cash flow but is expected to restore the company’s historical free‑cash‑flow profile and improve gross margins.
Data Center and Emerging Market Growth
The data center segment, supplying power‑management and signal‑chain chips to AI server racks, has shown significant year‑over‑year revenue growth and now represents a notable portion of total revenue. Industrial revenue is also recovering with positive YOY gains, while automotive content growth continues to lift chip dollar value per vehicle.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TXN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$280.87
52W Range Position
95%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.73
+83.9% from the low
52-Week High
$287.83
-2.4% from the high
1 Month
+40.84%
3 Month
+25.40%
YTD
+58.2%
1 Year
+72.9%
3Y CAGR
+19.2%
5Y CAGR
+9.1%
10Y CAGR
+17.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TXN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.2x
vs 35.4x median
+5% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.5%
vs -1.1% median
+1038% above peer median
Net Margin
29.1%
vs 9.5% median
+208% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $197.6B | 35.4x | +16.0% | 23.0% | Buy | -7.5% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $53.3B | 62.8x | -8.5% | -2.2% | Buy | -11.7% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $50.8B | 48.2x | -3.6% | 1.2% | Buy | +0.6% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $73.8B | 20.0x | +5.6% | 21.0% | Buy | -17.0% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $40.4B | 35.1x | -1.1% | 9.5% | Buy | -39.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TXN Dividend and Capital Return
TXN returns 2.5% total yield, led by a 1.95% dividend, raised 22 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
1.95%
Payout Ratio
100.0%
How TXN Splits Its Return
Div 1.95%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 1.95%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.5%
5Y Div CAGR
8.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
910M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.50 | +4.6% | 0.9% | 4.1% |
| 2024 | $5.26 | +4.8% | 0.5% | 3.3% |
| 2023 | $5.02 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| 2022 | $4.69 | +11.4% | 2.4% | 5.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsTXN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 65 analysts covering the stock, 30 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $254, implying -9.7% from the current price of $281. The bear case scenario is $221 and the bull case is $619.
02What is the TXN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TXN is $254 based on 65 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $325 (+15.7% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (-37.7%). The base case model target is $406.
03Is Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock overvalued in 2026?
TXN trades at 37.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TXN in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Pressure in Core Segments — TXN’s Analog and Embedded Processing businesses, which account for a significant portion of revenue, face intense competition from rivals heavily investing in AI and high‑growth areas. (2) Cyclical Demand Sensitivity — The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical; macroeconomic downturns can sharply reduce demand for TXN’s industrial and automotive chips, directly impacting revenue and earnings. (3) Core Segment Market Share Decline — TXN is experiencing declining market share in its Analog and Embedded Processing lines, raising concerns about its competitive positioning and potential erosion of revenue streams. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Texas Instruments Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TXN will report consensus revenue of $20.4B (+10.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.15 (+21.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.9B in revenue.
06When does Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TXN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Texas Instruments Incorporated generate?
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 20.2%. TXN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).