Upside case
Bull case
$1008+148.9%
ADI would need investors to value it at roughly 88x earnings — about 53x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
54
analysts
43 bullish · 0 bearish · 54 covering ADI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
43
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$374
-7.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$306 – $1008
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
54
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $197.6B
ADI price targets
Three scenarios for where ADI stock could go
Current
~$405
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $405
Bear
$306
Base
$864
Bull
$1008
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$864+113.4%
At 76x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$306-24.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push ADI down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Analog Devices, Inc.
ADI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsNovember year-end
Analog Devices is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits for industrial, automotive, communications, and consumer markets. It generates revenue primarily through sales of data converters (~30%), power management ICs (~25%), amplifiers (~15%), and RF/microwave components (~15%) to industrial and automotive customers. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in high-performance analog design—a difficult-to-master discipline—and its extensive portfolio of precision components that are deeply embedded in mission-critical systems.
Market Cap
$197.6B
Revenue TTM
$11.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.7B
Net Margin
23.0%
ADI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.85/$1.70
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.05/$1.95
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.26/$2.24
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.46/$2.31
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.85/$1.70 | +8.8% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +5.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.05/$1.95 | +5.1% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26/$2.24 | +0.9% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.46/$2.31 | +6.5% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.6B
+16.0% YoY
FY2
$14.9B
+9.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.38
+70.3% YoY
FY2
$9.73
+3.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.6B
FCF Margin: 38.8%
Next Earnings
May 20, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.88
Expected Revenue
$3.5B
ADI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ADI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $9.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial
45.8%
-34.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
30.1%
-31.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial is the largest disclosed segment at 45.8% of FY 2024 revenue, down 34.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 30.1%, down 31.8% YoY.
ADI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $309 — implies -22.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
22.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADI
88.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+254% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ADI
88.8x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+232% premium
vs ADI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
88.8x
vs
5Y Average
44.4x
+100% premium
Forward PE
35.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+86%
Technology
22.1x
+60%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
88.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+254%
Technology
26.7x
+232%
5Y Avg
44.4x
+100%
PEG Ratio
13.03x
S&P 500
1.72x
+659%
Technology
1.52x
+755%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
41.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+172%
Technology
17.5x
+137%
5Y Avg
21.8x
+90%
Price/FCF
46.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+119%
Technology
19.5x
+137%
5Y Avg
27.0x
+71%
Price/Sales
17.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+474%
Technology
2.4x
+634%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+100%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
S&P 500
1.87%
-49%
Technology
1.16%
-17%
5Y Avg
1.80%
-47%
| Metric | ADI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ADI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.4x | 19.1x+86% | 22.1x+60% | — |
| Trailing PE | 88.8x | 25.1x+254% | 26.7x+232% | 44.4x+100% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.03x | 1.72x+659% | 1.52x+755% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.3x | 15.2x+172% | 17.5x+137% | 21.8x+90% |
| Price/FCF | 46.2x | 21.1x+119% | 19.5x+137% | 27.0x+71% |
| Price/Sales | 17.9x | 3.1x+474% | 2.4x+634% | 9.0x+100% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.96% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 1.80% |
ADI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ADI generates $4.6B in free cash flow at a 38.8% margin — returns 2.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+25.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
62.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.1%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
1.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
84.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
497M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risk
Heightened geopolitical tensions can trigger a risk‑off sentiment that disproportionately affects technology stocks. Rising oil prices and Treasury yields, often accompanying geopolitical instability, can pressure semiconductor valuations. Customer uncertainty in core markets further amplifies vulnerability.
High Risk
Valuation & Earnings Pressure
ADI trades at a premium relative to peers, raising expectations for earnings growth. A slower‑than‑expected recovery in industrial and communications demand, or pricing pressure as inventories normalize, could erode earnings and limit short‑term upside. Elevated valuation makes the stock more sensitive to any earnings miss.
Medium
Semiconductor Cycle Risk
The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, with growth periods followed by consolidation. While a cyclical upturn is underway, analysts project industrial demand may settle below the trend line, potentially moderating growth rates. This normalization could compress margins and revenue growth.
Medium
Automotive & Industrial Demand
Industrial revenue grew year‑over‑year but fell slightly below estimates, indicating potential weakening demand dynamics. Automotive revenue declined quarter‑over‑quarter, influenced by macroeconomic factors and tariff‑related adjustments. Sustained growth in the automotive sector remains uncertain.
Lower
Inventory & Customer Uncertainty
Persistent excess inventory and customer uncertainty could lead to flat or declining sequential revenue in the upcoming quarter. This risk is compounded by potential delays in order cycles and reduced demand from key customers.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant Converter Chip Market Share
Analog Devices is a leading analog, mixed‑signal, and digital‑signal processing chipmaker with a significant share of the converter chip market. Its strong position in this core segment underpins steady revenue growth and provides a competitive moat against rivals.
Growth in EV, Satellite, AI Test Demand
The company benefits from expanding demand in electric vehicles, low‑earth‑orbit satellites, and AI‑driven chip testing equipment. These end‑markets are projected to grow rapidly, driving higher sales volumes for ADI’s high‑performance analog solutions.
Thailand Facility Expansion Boosts Supply Resilience
ADI’s recent expansion of its advanced manufacturing facility in Thailand is designed to improve supply resilience and reduce response times. This geographic diversification helps the company meet global demand spikes and mitigate regional supply chain disruptions.
GaN Power Solutions for High‑Performance Systems
The firm is pushing into advanced Gallium Nitride (GaN) power solutions, which are critical for high‑performance, safety‑critical applications. GaN technology offers higher efficiency and power density, positioning ADI at the forefront of next‑generation power electronics.
Strong Dividend Growth and Low Debt
ADI has a track record of increasing its dividend, returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Coupled with a low debt‑to‑equity ratio, the company’s financial health supports continued investment in growth initiatives.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$404.77
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$194.26
+108.4% from the low
52-Week High
$408.37
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+23.65%
3 Month
+25.66%
YTD
+47.9%
1 Year
+104.7%
3Y CAGR
+30.2%
5Y CAGR
+21.3%
10Y CAGR
+21.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.4x
vs 37.2x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.0%
vs -1.1% median
+1527% above peer median
Net Margin
23.0%
vs 9.5% median
+143% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $197.6B | 35.4x | +16.0% | 23.0% | Buy | -7.5% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $255.7B | 37.2x | +10.5% | 29.1% | Buy | -9.7% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $53.3B | 62.8x | -8.5% | -2.2% | Buy | -11.7% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $73.8B | 20.0x | +5.6% | 21.0% | Buy | -17.0% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $50.8B | 48.2x | -3.6% | 1.2% | Buy | +0.6% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $40.4B | 35.1x | -1.1% | 9.5% | Buy | -39.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADI Dividend and Capital Return
ADI returns 2.1% annually — 0.96% through dividends and 1.1% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.1%
Dividend Yield
0.96%
Payout Ratio
84.9%
How ADI Splits Its Return
Div 0.96%
Buyback 1.1%
Dividend 0.96%Buybacks 1.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
22Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.2%
5Y Div CAGR
9.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
497M
At 1.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.96 | +7.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $3.68 | +7.0% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $3.44 | +13.2% | 3.7% | 5.8% |
| 2022 | $3.04 | +10.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsADI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 54 analysts covering the stock, 43 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $374, implying -7.5% from the current price of $405. The bear case scenario is $306 and the bull case is $1008.
02What is the ADI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADI is $374 based on 54 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $430 (+6.2% from today), and the low-end target is $270 (-33.3%). The base case model target is $864.
03Is Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADI trades at 35.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADI in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & Geopolitical Risk — Heightened geopolitical tensions can trigger a risk‑off sentiment that disproportionately affects technology stocks. (2) Valuation & Earnings Pressure — ADI trades at a premium relative to peers, raising expectations for earnings growth. (3) Semiconductor Cycle Risk — The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, with growth periods followed by consolidation. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Analog Devices, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADI will report consensus revenue of $13.6B (+16.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.38 (+70.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.9B in revenue.
06When does Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) report its next earnings?
Analog Devices, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-20. Consensus expects EPS of $2.88 and revenue of $3.5B. Over recent quarters, ADI has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Analog Devices, Inc. generate?
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) generated $4.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.8%. ADI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($2.2B TTM).