Upside case
Bull case
$640+47.3%
ADI would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
54
analysts
43 bullish · 0 bearish · 54 covering ADI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
43
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$444
+2.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$306 – $640
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
54
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
35.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $211.6B
ADI price targets
Three scenarios for where ADI stock could go
Current
~$434
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $434
Bear
$306
Base
$486
Bull
$640
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$486+11.8%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ADI — at roughly 40x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$306-29.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push ADI down roughly 30% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Analog Devices, Inc.
ADI · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsNovember year-end
Analog Devices is a semiconductor company that designs and manufactures analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits for industrial, automotive, communications, and consumer markets. It generates revenue primarily through sales of data converters (~30%), power management ICs (~25%), amplifiers (~15%), and RF/microwave components (~15%) to industrial and automotive customers. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in high-performance analog design—a difficult-to-master discipline—and its extensive portfolio of precision components that are deeply embedded in mission-critical systems.
Market Cap
$211.6B
Revenue TTM
$12.7B
Net Income TTM
$3.3B
Net Margin
26.0%
ADI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.05/$1.95
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.26/$2.24
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.46/$2.31
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.09/$2.89
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.05/$1.95 | +5.1% | $2.9B/$2.8B | +4.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26/$2.24 | +0.9% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.46/$2.31 | +6.5% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.09/$2.89 | +6.9% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.4B
+12.7% YoY
FY2
$16.4B
+13.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.70
+43.5% YoY
FY2
$10.79
+11.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.6B
FCF Margin: 35.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ADI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ADI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Industrial
44.7%
+14.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
41.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Industrial is the largest disclosed segment at 44.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.3% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 41.4%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ADI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $457 — implies +5.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
5.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ADI
95.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+290% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ADI
95.3x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+228% premium
vs ADI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
95.3x
vs
5Y Average
44.5x
+114% premium
Forward PE
35.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+88%
Technology
22.3x
+59%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
95.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
+290%
Technology
29.0x
+228%
5Y Avg
44.5x
+114%
PEG Ratio
13.99x
S&P 500
1.66x
+743%
Technology
1.51x
+829%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
44.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+190%
Technology
16.6x
+166%
5Y Avg
21.8x
+102%
Price/FCF
49.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+139%
Technology
19.2x
+157%
5Y Avg
27.0x
+83%
Price/Sales
19.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+521%
Technology
2.4x
+688%
5Y Avg
9.0x
+114%
Dividend Yield
0.89%
S&P 500
1.91%
-53%
Technology
1.11%
-19%
5Y Avg
1.79%
-50%
| Metric | ADI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ADI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 35.4x | 18.8x+88% | 22.3x+59% | — |
| Trailing PE | 95.3x | 24.4x+290% | 29.0x+228% | 44.5x+114% |
| PEG Ratio | 13.99x | 1.66x+743% | 1.51x+829% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.2x | 15.2x+190% | 16.6x+166% | 21.8x+102% |
| Price/FCF | 49.5x | 20.7x+139% | 19.2x+157% | 27.0x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 19.2x | 3.1x+521% | 2.4x+688% | 9.0x+114% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.89% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 1.79% |
ADI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolADI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ADI generates $4.6B in free cash flow at a 35.8% margin — returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+29.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
32.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.76
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
35.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.87
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
84.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
487M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageADI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Cyclicality Risk
Analog Devices operates in a cyclical industry, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and fluctuating demand.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
The company faces risks related to supply chain disruptions, which could impact production and delivery timelines.
Medium
Execution Risk
ADI's ability to execute its business strategy effectively is a concern, as highlighted in its 10-K filing.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
The stock's recent rally has compressed implied upside, raising questions about its valuation.
Medium
Industry Competition
ADI lags behind industry peers in financial performance, indicating competitive pressures.
Lower
Insider Selling
Insider share sales have been observed, which may signal lack of confidence in near-term performance.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Analyst opinions have converged on a Buy rating, but the bullish case may be weakening.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ADI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Earnings beat rally
The stock setup in mid-2026 resembles a textbook earnings-beat rally, briefly surpassing sell-side targets.
Strong financial performance
Analog Devices reported robust fiscal second-quarter 2026 results with sales of US$3,623.47 million and net income of US$1,176.35 million.
Share repurchases
The company has continued its share repurchase program, signaling confidence in its financial health.
Analyst consensus Buy rating
Bullish and bearish analyst opinions have converged on a Buy rating, indicating broad optimism.
Significant price rally
The stock has rallied 95% from its 52-week low, reflecting strong investor confidence.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses on platforms like r/investing_discussion and r/AIPortfolios highlight positive investor sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ADI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$434.46
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$218.37
+99.0% from the low
52-Week High
$439.42
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+3.79%
3 Month
+40.79%
YTD
+58.7%
1 Year
+89.2%
3Y CAGR
+32.2%
5Y CAGR
+21.8%
10Y CAGR
+22.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ADI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
35.4x
vs 41.9x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.7%
vs +3.2% median
+301% above peer median
Net Margin
26.0%
vs 9.5% median
+175% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ADI ADI Analog Devices, Inc. | $211.6B | 35.4x | +12.7% | 26.0% | Buy | +2.3% |
TXN TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $294.0B | 41.9x | +9.7% | 29.1% | Buy | -15.1% |
MCH MCHP Microchip Technology Incorporated | $54.0B | 63.6x | +2.7% | -2.2% | Buy | +8.1% |
NXP NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. | $79.1B | 21.3x | +6.8% | 21.0% | Buy | -22.6% |
STM STM STMicroelectronics N.V. | $69.7B | 61.0x | +3.2% | 1.2% | Buy | -4.5% |
ON ON ON Semiconductor Corporation | $47.7B | 39.4x | +2.8% | 9.5% | Buy | -22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ADI Dividend and Capital Return
ADI returns 1.9% annually — 0.89% through dividends and 1.0% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.89%
Payout Ratio
84.9%
How ADI Splits Its Return
Div 0.89%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.89%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.87
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.2%
5Y Div CAGR
9.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
487M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.96 | +7.6% | 1.9% | 3.5% |
| 2024 | $3.68 | +7.0% | 0.5% | 2.1% |
| 2023 | $3.44 | +13.2% | 3.6% | 5.7% |
| 2022 | $3.04 | +10.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsADI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 54 analysts covering the stock, 43 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $444, implying +2.3% from the current price of $434. The bear case scenario is $306 and the bull case is $640.
02What is the ADI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ADI is $444 based on 54 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $515 (+18.5% from today), and the low-end target is $360 (-17.1%). The base case model target is $486.
03Is Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock overvalued in 2026?
ADI trades at 35.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ADI in 2026 are: (1) Cyclicality Risk — Analog Devices operates in a cyclical industry, making it vulnerable to economic downturns and fluctuating demand. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — The company faces risks related to supply chain disruptions, which could impact production and delivery timelines. (3) Execution Risk — ADI's ability to execute its business strategy effectively is a concern, as highlighted in its 10-K filing. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Analog Devices, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ADI will report consensus revenue of $14.4B (+12.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.70 (+43.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.4B in revenue.
06When does Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ADI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Analog Devices, Inc. generate?
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) generated $4.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 35.8%. ADI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($2.2B TTM).