Upside case
Bull case
$575+78.4%
CB would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Chubb Limited (CB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
43
analysts
23 bullish · 2 bearish · 43 covering CB
Strong Buy
1
Buy
22
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$344
+6.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$205 – $575
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
43
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $125.9B
CB price targets
Three scenarios for where CB stock could go
Current
~$323
Confidence
76 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $323
Bear
$205
Base
$397
Bull
$575
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$397+23.2%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$205-36.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push CB down roughly 36% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Chubb Limited
CB · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
Chubb is a global insurance and reinsurance company offering commercial and personal property & casualty coverage worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums across four main segments: North America Commercial P&C (~40% of revenue), North America Personal P&C (~20%), Overseas General Insurance (~30%), and North America Agricultural Insurance (~10%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its underwriting expertise, global scale, and focus on serving affluent clients and complex commercial risks where technical knowledge creates barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$125.9B
Revenue TTM
$59.8B
Net Income TTM
$10.3B
Net Margin
17.2%
CB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$6.14/$5.98
Revenue
$14.9B/$14.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.49/$6.17
Revenue
$16.1B/$13.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.52/$6.77
Revenue
$13.1B/$12.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$6.82/$6.60
Revenue
$14.0B/$13.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $6.14/$5.98 | +2.7% | $14.9B/$14.2B | +5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.49/$6.17 | +21.4% | $16.1B/$13.0B | +24.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.52/$6.77 | +11.1% | $13.1B/$12.9B | +1.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.82/$6.60 | +3.3% | $14.0B/$13.6B | +3.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$61.8B
+3.4% YoY
FY2
$67.2B
+8.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$28.36
+9.0% YoY
FY2
$31.69
+11.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$13.5B
FCF Margin: 22.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment Life
100.0%
+7.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Segment Life is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 7.2% YoY.
CB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $280 — implies -14.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CB
12.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
50% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CB
12.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
6% discount
vs CB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
11.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-38%
Financial Services
10.4x
+15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-50%
Financial Services
13.3x
-6%
5Y Avg
12.5x
+0%
PEG Ratio
0.46x
S&P 500
1.72x
-73%
Financial Services
1.01x
-54%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-28%
Financial Services
11.4x
-4%
5Y Avg
11.6x
-6%
Price/FCF
8.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-59%
Financial Services
10.6x
-18%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+11%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-33%
Financial Services
2.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+3%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
S&P 500
1.87%
-37%
Financial Services
2.70%
-56%
5Y Avg
1.41%
-17%
| Metric | CB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.9x | 19.1x-38% | 10.4x+15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.5x | 25.1x-50% | 13.3x | 12.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.46x | 1.72x-73% | 1.01x-54% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.9x | 15.2x-28% | 11.4x | 11.6x |
| Price/FCF | 8.7x | 21.1x-59% | 10.6x-18% | 7.8x+11% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-33% | 2.2x | 2.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.18% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 1.41% |
CB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CB posts 17.2% net margin with 13.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$59.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$26.00
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
13.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$19.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
1.2%
Buyback
2.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.80
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
14.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
390M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Underwriting & Claims Risk
Chubb's insurance business is cyclical; excess underwriting capacity and unfavorable premium rates expose the company to volatile loss experience. Unexpectedly high claims can materially erode earnings and capital, potentially requiring write‑downs or reserves.
High Risk
Investment Portfolio Risk
Chubb’s investment assets are subject to market risk; declines in financial markets can trigger realized and unrealized losses, reducing book value and net income. A downturn in bond or equity markets could compress investment income and affect capital adequacy.
Medium
Regulatory & Policy Risk
As a global insurer, Chubb operates under multiple jurisdictions. Changes in insurance regulations or government policies can alter underwriting guidelines, capital requirements, or tax treatment, impacting profitability and operational flexibility.
Medium
Capital Utilization Efficiency
Concerns exist that Chubb’s return on equity is suppressed by excess capital. Inefficient capital deployment can limit dividend growth and reduce shareholder returns, potentially affecting valuation.
Medium
Macroeconomic Conditions
Broader economic downturns, recessions, or GDP contractions can negatively affect the insurance industry and Chubb’s profitability. A slowdown can reduce premium growth and increase claim frequency.
Lower
Interest Rate Risk
Changes in interest rates impact Chubb’s investment portfolio performance and investment income. Volatility can also influence the attractiveness of new insurance policies and affect operating results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
25% Rise in Life Net Written Premiums
Chubb reported a 25% year‑over‑year increase in Life Net Written Premiums, reflecting stronger demand in its core life insurance business. This growth contributes directly to higher top‑line revenue and supports future earnings expansion.
Steady Growth in Property & Casualty
The property and casualty insurance segment continues to expand at a consistent pace, adding incremental premiums that bolster Chubb’s overall underwriting performance. This steady growth helps offset any pricing softness in the segment.
Double‑Digit EPS Growth from Global Reinsurance
Chubb’s Global Reinsurance unit is projected to deliver double‑digit earnings per share growth, driven by favorable risk‑adjusted returns and a growing portfolio of reinsurance contracts. This catalyst enhances the company’s profitability outlook.
Geographic Diversification Fuels Premium Expansion
Strategic expansion into Asia and Latin America positions Chubb to capture premium growth in high‑potential markets. Diversification across geographies reduces concentration risk and supports sustained revenue growth.
Dividend Increase Demonstrates Resilience
Despite headwinds such as wildfire losses, Chubb has raised its quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in cash flow generation and shareholder value creation. The dividend hike underscores the company’s financial strength.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$322.57
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$264.10
+22.1% from the low
52-Week High
$345.67
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
-1.32%
3 Month
-2.63%
YTD
+4.0%
1 Year
+12.1%
3Y CAGR
+17.5%
5Y CAGR
+13.5%
10Y CAGR
+10.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.9x
vs 10.0x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.4%
vs +1.8% median
+92% above peer median
Net Margin
17.2%
vs 12.9% median
+34% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB CB Chubb Limited | $125.9B | 11.9x | +3.4% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
AIG AIG American International Group, Inc. | $42.1B | 10.0x | +1.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +9.1% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
ALL ALL The Allstate Corporation | $56.2B | 8.1x | +1.8% | 18.1% | Buy | +11.8% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $12.0B | 9.2x | +2.4% | 8.7% | Hold | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CB Dividend and Capital Return
CB returns capital mainly through $3.7B/year in buybacks (2.9% buyback yield), with a modest 1.18% dividend — combining for 4.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 9 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.9%
Dividend Yield
1.18%
Payout Ratio
14.6%
How CB Splits Its Return
Div 1.18%
Buyback 2.9%
Dividend 1.18%Buybacks 2.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.80
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.1%
5Y Div CAGR
4.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
390M
At 2.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.97 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.82 | +6.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% |
| 2024 | $3.59 | +5.3% | 1.6% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $3.41 | +3.6% | 2.6% | 4.1% |
| 2022 | $3.29 | +3.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsCB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Chubb Limited (CB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Chubb Limited (CB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 43 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $344, implying +6.7% from the current price of $323. The bear case scenario is $205 and the bull case is $575.
02What is the CB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CB is $344 based on 43 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $373 (+15.6% from today), and the low-end target is $309 (-4.2%). The base case model target is $397.
03Is Chubb Limited (CB) stock overvalued in 2026?
CB trades at 11.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Chubb Limited (CB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CB in 2026 are: (1) Underwriting & Claims Risk — Chubb's insurance business is cyclical; excess underwriting capacity and unfavorable premium rates expose the company to volatile loss experience. (2) Investment Portfolio Risk — Chubb’s investment assets are subject to market risk; declines in financial markets can trigger realized and unrealized losses, reducing book value and net income. (3) Regulatory & Policy Risk — As a global insurer, Chubb operates under multiple jurisdictions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Chubb Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CB will report consensus revenue of $61.8B (+3.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $28.36 (+9.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $67.2B in revenue.
06When does Chubb Limited (CB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Chubb Limited generate?
Chubb Limited (CB) generated $13.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.6%. CB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.2% yield) and share repurchases ($3.7B TTM).