Upside case
Bull case
$70+57.5%
CNA would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
7
analysts
2 bullish · 1 bearish · 7 covering CNA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
2
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$45
+1.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$27 – $70
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
7
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.0B
CNA price targets
Three scenarios for where CNA stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$27
Base
$49
Bull
$70
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$49+9.4%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CNA — at roughly 10x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$27-38.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push CNA down roughly 39% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
CNA Financial Corporation
CNA · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - Property & CasualtyDecember year-end
CNA Financial is a commercial property and casualty insurance provider focused on the U.S. market. It generates revenue primarily through insurance premiums across its Specialty, Commercial, and International segments — with specialty lines like professional liability and healthcare insurance forming a significant portion. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in complex commercial risks and its long-standing relationships with brokers in niche professional markets.
Market Cap
$12.0B
Revenue TTM
$14.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
8.7%
CNA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.23/$0.94
Revenue
$3.7B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.50/$1.25
Revenue
$3.7B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.16/$1.20
Revenue
$3.8B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.83/$1.30
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.23/$0.94 | +30.9% | $3.7B/$2.8B | +34.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.50/$1.25 | +20.0% | $3.7B/$2.8B | +32.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.16/$1.20 | -3.3% | $3.8B/$2.9B | +30.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.83/$1.30 | -36.2% | $2.6B/$2.9B | -11.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.1B
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$16.2B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.88
+4.1% YoY
FY2
$5.13
+5.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.4B
FCF Margin: 16.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CNA beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
CNA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Segment
43.3%
+24.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Specialty Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Commercial Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 43.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 24.5% YoY.
Specialty Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CNA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $75 — implies +56.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
56.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CNA
9.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
62% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CNA
9.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
29% discount
vs CNA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.5x
vs
5Y Average
12.1x
21% discount
Forward PE
9.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-52%
Financial Services
10.4x
-11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-62%
Financial Services
13.3x
-29%
5Y Avg
12.1x
-21%
PEG Ratio
0.72x
S&P 500
1.72x
-58%
Financial Services
1.01x
-29%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Financial Services
11.4x
-23%
5Y Avg
11.3x
-23%
Price/FCF
5.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-76%
Financial Services
10.6x
-53%
5Y Avg
5.4x
-6%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-74%
Financial Services
2.2x
-63%
5Y Avg
0.9x
-13%
Dividend Yield
8.63%
S&P 500
1.87%
+362%
Financial Services
2.70%
+220%
5Y Avg
7.27%
+19%
| Metric | CNA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CNA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.2x | 19.1x-52% | 10.4x-11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.5x | 25.1x-62% | 13.3x-29% | 12.1x-21% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.72x | 1.72x-58% | 1.01x-29% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8x | 15.2x-42% | 11.4x-23% | 11.3x-23% |
| Price/FCF | 5.0x | 21.1x-76% | 10.6x-53% | 5.4x |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-74% | 2.2x-63% | 0.9x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | 8.63% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 7.27% |
CNA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCNA Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CNA posts 8.7% net margin with 11.6% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$14.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.69
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
11.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$425M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.9%
Dividend
8.6%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$34M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
81.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
271M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCNA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Catastrophe Losses
Significant weather events or natural disasters can lead to substantial claims, impacting CNA's combined ratio and profitability. For instance, Hurricane Milton in Q4 resulted in elevated catastrophe losses, which pose a persistent risk to the company's financial stability.
High Risk
Social Inflation
Social inflation has caused loss cost trends to double in some lines over the last five years, particularly in casualty lines like commercial auto and general liability. This trend is forecasted to lead to underwriting losses, with a projected general liability combined ratio of 107.1% for 2025.
High Risk
Reserve Estimation Risks
Accurately estimating insurance reserves is complex and uncertain, posing a risk of reserve inadequacy. This could lead to future charges against earnings, negatively affecting investor confidence and the company's financial health.
Medium
Economic and Market Volatility
Economic downturns and market fluctuations can adversely affect CNA's business by reducing demand for insurance products and increasing claims. These factors can also lead to investment portfolio losses, impacting overall profitability.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
CNA is exposed to cyber threats, having been a victim of ransomware attacks. The financial and operational risks associated with such incidents are significant, with the average cost of a ransomware attack being substantial and breach discovery taking months.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Challenges
The heavily regulated insurance industry faces risks from changes in laws, regulations, or accounting standards. Legal proceedings and compliance obligations require significant resources and can lead to financial liabilities or reputational damage.
Lower
Long-Term Care Exposure
CNA has approximately $13 billion in reserves for existing long-term care policies, which pose ongoing risks despite ceasing to sell new individual policies. The history of rate inadequacy and reserve increases in this segment remains a concern.
Lower
Investment Portfolio Volatility
CNA's diversified investment portfolio is subject to market volatility, which can lead to losses. The company reported net investment losses in Q1 2024, contributing to a decrease in total comprehensive income due to unrealized losses on investments.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CNA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervalued Stock with Growth Potential
CNA Financial is trading at a P/E ratio of approximately 10.14x, significantly below the insurance industry average of 11.62x and the broader peer group average of 17.67x. An excess returns analysis indicates the stock is about 29.7% undervalued compared to its estimated intrinsic value of $68.25 per share.
Strong Underwriting Performance
CNA has shown impressive underwriting results, with its P&C combined ratio improving from 101.1% in Q1 2025 to 92.7% in Q3. The commercial segment achieved a record-low combined ratio of 90.5% in Q4 2025, while overall retention rose to 84%.
Consistent Dividend Growth
CNA Financial has increased its dividend for nine consecutive years, recently raising its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.48 per share. The company also issued a special dividend of $2.00 per share in Q4 2025, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.99%.
Healthy Profit Margins
CNA's net profit margin was 8.5% over the last twelve months, reflecting an improvement from the previous year. The company has maintained an underlying combined ratio under 92% for five consecutive years, indicating strong profitability.
Positive Earnings Growth Outlook
Earnings for CNA Financial are projected to grow by 12.74% in the coming year, increasing from $4.63 to $5.22 per share. This growth is supported by a technical rating of 6 out of 10, indicating positive short-term and long-term trends.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CNA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.53
52W Range Position
22%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$42.77
+4.1% from the low
52-Week High
$50.72
-12.2% from the high
1 Month
-4.01%
3 Month
-11.12%
YTD
-5.0%
1 Year
-7.4%
3Y CAGR
+3.7%
5Y CAGR
-1.3%
10Y CAGR
+3.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CNA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.2x
vs 11.9x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.4%
vs +3.4% median
-30% below peer median
Net Margin
8.7%
vs 12.9% median
-33% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $12.0B | 9.2x | +2.4% | 8.7% | Hold | +1.1% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $65.2B | 10.8x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +3.9% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.9B | 10.2x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.3% |
CB CB Chubb Limited | $125.9B | 11.9x | +3.4% | 17.2% | Buy | +6.7% |
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.9B | 14.3x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +5.7% |
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.1B | 15.7x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +10.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CNA Dividend and Capital Return
CNA returns 8.9% total yield, led by a 8.63% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
8.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
8.63%
Payout Ratio
81.9%
How CNA Splits Its Return
Div 8.63%
Dividend 8.63%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
2.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$34M
Estimated Shares Retired
763.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
271M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.84 | +2.1% | 0.3% | 8.3% |
| 2024 | $3.76 | +30.6% | 0.2% | 7.9% |
| 2023 | $2.88 | -20.0% | 0.2% | 7.0% |
| 2022 | $3.60 | +58.6% | 0.3% | 8.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCNA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 7 analysts covering the stock, 2 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $45, implying +1.1% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $27 and the bull case is $70.
02What is the CNA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CNA is $45 based on 7 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $45 (+1.1% from today), and the low-end target is $45 (+1.1%). The base case model target is $49.
03Is CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CNA trades at 9.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CNA in 2026 are: (1) Catastrophe Losses — Significant weather events or natural disasters can lead to substantial claims, impacting CNA's combined ratio and profitability. (2) Social Inflation — Social inflation has caused loss cost trends to double in some lines over the last five years, particularly in casualty lines like commercial auto and general liability. (3) Reserve Estimation Risks — Accurately estimating insurance reserves is complex and uncertain, posing a risk of reserve inadequacy. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is CNA Financial Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CNA will report consensus revenue of $15.1B (+2.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.88 (+4.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.2B in revenue.
06When does CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CNA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does CNA Financial Corporation generate?
CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) generated $2.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.3%. CNA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.6% yield) and share repurchases ($34M TTM).