Upside case
Bull case
$103+174.6%
AMCR would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Amcor plc (AMCR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
8 bullish · 2 bearish · 13 covering AMCR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
3
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$50
+32.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$34 – $103
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.4B
AMCR price targets
Three scenarios for where AMCR stock could go
Current
~$38
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $38
Bear
$34
Base
$63
Bull
$103
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$63+67.1%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$34-10.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push AMCR down roughly 11% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Amcor plc
AMCR · NYSEConsumer CyclicalPackaging & ContainersJune year-end
Amcor is a global packaging company that develops and produces flexible and rigid packaging solutions for food, beverage, healthcare, and consumer goods industries. It generates revenue through two main segments—flexible packaging (~70% of sales) and rigid packaging (~30%)—selling directly to manufacturers worldwide. The company's competitive advantage lies in its global scale, deep customer relationships, and technical expertise in creating specialized packaging that meets complex regulatory and sustainability requirements.
Market Cap
$17.4B
Revenue TTM
$19.6B
Net Income TTM
$596M
Net Margin
3.0%
AMCR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+203.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.90/$0.18
Revenue
$3.3B/$3.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.00/$0.21
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.95/$0.93
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.83
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.90/$0.18 | +386.5% | $3.3B/$3.5B | -4.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.00/$0.21 | +368.8% | $5.1B/$5.2B | -2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.95/$0.93 | +2.7% | $5.7B/$5.8B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.83 | +3.6% | $5.4B/$5.5B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$21.4B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$22.4B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.61
+103.2% YoY
FY2
$2.67
+2.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 8.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AMCR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMCR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $15.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Flexibles Segment
72.4%
+5.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
47.9%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Flexibles Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 72.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.2% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 47.9%, up 9.0% YoY.
AMCR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $34 — implies -10.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMCR
23.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
6% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
AMCR
23.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+22% premium
vs AMCR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
23.5x
vs
5Y Average
4.2x
+462% premium
Forward PE
9.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
-37%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
23.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+22%
5Y Avg
4.2x
+462%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+20%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+61%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+204%
Price/FCF
21.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
+2%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+47%
5Y Avg
3.7x
+484%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+62%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+409%
Dividend Yield
7.05%
S&P 500
1.87%
+277%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
+217%
5Y Avg
19.42%
-64%
| Metric | AMCR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg AMCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.6x | 19.1x-50% | 15.1x-37% | — |
| Trailing PE | 23.5x | 25.1x | 19.3x+22% | 4.2x+462% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.2x | 15.2x+20% | 11.3x+61% | 6.0x+204% |
| Price/FCF | 21.5x | 21.1x | 14.6x+47% | 3.7x+484% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-63% | 0.7x+62% | 0.2x+409% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.05% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 19.42% |
AMCR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMCR Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
AMCR generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 8.3% margin — returns 7.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+44.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
18.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.28
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$827M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
8.7× FCF
~8.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.7%
Dividend
7.0%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$122M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.65
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
165.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
319M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAMCR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Debt Load
AMC carries approximately $4 billion in corporate borrowings and about $4 billion in discounted operating lease obligations. This heavy debt burden limits the company's long-term recovery potential and requires significant cash flow for servicing.
High Risk
Potential for Bankruptcy
AMC has warned that without significant revenue increases or substantial new liquidity, its common stock is highly speculative. The probability of bankruptcy has been estimated at 46.3%, posing a significant risk to shareholders.
Medium
Profitability Challenges
Despite improving revenues, AMC has reported net losses in recent quarters and years, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. This could deter potential investors and affect stock performance.
Medium
Dilution Risk
AMC has a history of issuing new shares to raise capital, which can dilute the value of existing shares. The potential for future equity issuance remains a concern for current shareholders.
Medium
Liquidity Concerns
While AMC has some cash reserves, its substantial debt and lease liabilities, coupled with ongoing losses, raise questions about its ability to meet financial commitments. This could impact operational stability.
Medium
Competition from Streaming Services
The rise of direct-to-streaming releases by major studios threatens AMC's traditional exclusive theatrical window. This shift could significantly impact AMC's core business and revenue generation.
Lower
Macroeconomic Factors
Broader economic conditions, such as rising interest rates, can increase the cost of debt and reduce consumer discretionary spending. This may negatively affect AMC's performance in the long run.
Lower
Shifting Consumer Preferences
Changes in consumer preferences regarding movie-viewing habits could impact demand for theatrical experiences. This evolving landscape poses a risk to AMC's revenue stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMCR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Box Office Recovery and Content Strength
AMC is poised for a box office recovery as audience demand remains strong for compelling content, evidenced by record-breaking performances during holiday weekends. The company is also capitalizing on premium formats like IMAX and Dolby Cinema, which enhance profitability by commanding higher ticket prices. Projections for domestic box office growth in 2026 range from 6% to 11% in a bull case scenario.
Operational Strengths and Revenue Streams
AMC's profitability is significantly bolstered by high-margin sales from concessions and movie-related merchandise, which often contribute more to profit than ticket sales. The company is also maintaining tight cost control alongside box office recovery, which is crucial for managing its debt. For the current fiscal year, AMC's consensus sales estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +8.9%, with further growth expected in the next fiscal year.
Market Mechanics and Sentiment
With around 22% of AMC's publicly traded shares sold short, there is potential for a short squeeze if the stock price increases rapidly. Additionally, strong interest from retail investors has historically led to significant losses for hedge funds and short sellers. Positive technical indicators suggest a general buy signal for the stock in the short term.
Financial Performance and Turnaround Potential
AMC has demonstrated year-over-year revenue growth and has shown an ability to beat sales estimates. Expectations for substantial EBITDA growth in 2026 are driven by a strong film slate and operational efficiencies, suggesting a potential shift towards a turnaround narrative.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMCR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$37.64
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$7.67
+390.7% from the low
52-Week High
$50.94
-26.1% from the high
1 Month
-5.45%
3 Month
-19.54%
YTD
+347.6%
1 Year
+304.3%
3Y CAGR
+53.4%
5Y CAGR
+25.1%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMCR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.6x
vs 12.4x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +6.6% median
+41% above peer median
Net Margin
3.0%
vs 8.6% median
-65% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMC AMCR Amcor plc | $17.4B | 9.6x | +9.3% | 3.0% | Buy | +32.8% |
SEE SEE Sealed Air Corporation | $6.2B | 12.4x | -0.3% | 9.4% | Buy | +3.2% |
SLG SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $4.2B | 10.4x | +6.0% | 4.3% | Buy | +28.0% |
SON SON Sonoco Products Company | $5.0B | 8.6x | +19.9% | 13.8% | Buy | +16.9% |
PKG PKG Packaging Corporation of America | $19.9B | 21.6x | +6.6% | 8.6% | Hold | +10.0% |
IP IP International Paper Company | $16.9B | 21.0x | +14.5% | -13.4% | Buy | +45.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMCR Dividend and Capital Return
AMCR returns 7.7% total yield, led by a 7.05% dividend, raised 11 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
7.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
7.05%
Payout Ratio
1.7%
How AMCR Splits Its Return
Div 7.05%
Dividend 7.05%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.65
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.0%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$122M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
319M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.56 | +2.0% | 4.2% | 33.0% |
| 2024 | $2.51 | +2.0% | 2.9% | 28.5% |
| 2023 | $2.46 | +2.1% | 22.2% | 46.7% |
| 2022 | $2.41 | +2.1% | 19.7% | 39.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMCR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Amcor plc (AMCR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Amcor plc (AMCR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $50, implying +32.8% from the current price of $38. The bear case scenario is $34 and the bull case is $103.
02What is the AMCR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMCR is $50 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+43.5% from today), and the low-end target is $46 (+22.2%). The base case model target is $63.
03Is Amcor plc (AMCR) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMCR trades at 9.6x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Amcor plc (AMCR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMCR in 2026 are: (1) High Debt Load — AMC carries approximately $4 billion in corporate borrowings and about $4 billion in discounted operating lease obligations. (2) Potential for Bankruptcy — AMC has warned that without significant revenue increases or substantial new liquidity, its common stock is highly speculative. (3) Profitability Challenges — Despite improving revenues, AMC has reported net losses in recent quarters and years, indicating ongoing profitability challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Amcor plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMCR will report consensus revenue of $21.4B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.61 (+103.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.4B in revenue.
06When does Amcor plc (AMCR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AMCR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Amcor plc generate?
Amcor plc (AMCR) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.3%. AMCR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.0% yield) and share repurchases ($122M TTM).