Upside case
Bull case
$37+14.5%
AMH would need investors to value it at roughly 51x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 45x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
36
analysts
19 bullish · 0 bearish · 36 covering AMH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
17
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
+7.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$25 – $37
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.8B
AMH price targets
Three scenarios for where AMH stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Bear
$25
Base
$40
Bull
$37
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$40+24.1%
At 55x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$25-23.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push AMH down roughly 23% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
American Homes 4 Rent
AMH · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
American Homes 4 Rent is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates a large portfolio of single-family homes for rent across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from residential rental income — collecting monthly rents from tenants — with additional income from property sales and ancillary services. The company's scale advantage — owning tens of thousands of homes across multiple markets — creates operational efficiencies and brand recognition that smaller landlords cannot match.
Market Cap
$11.8B
Revenue TTM
$1.9B
Net Income TTM
$453M
Net Margin
24.4%
AMH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+43.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.46/$0.45
Revenue
$459M/$449M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.47/$0.46
Revenue
$458M/$475M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.47/$0.46
Revenue
$478M/$459M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.47/$0.22
Revenue
$455M/$459M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.46/$0.45 | +2.2% | $459M/$449M | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.47/$0.46 | +2.2% | $458M/$475M | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.47/$0.46 | +2.2% | $478M/$459M | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.47/$0.22 | +113.9% | $455M/$459M | -0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.0B
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$2.1B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.23
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$1.34
+8.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$864M
FCF Margin: 46.6%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.18
Expected Revenue
$471M
AMH beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AMH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
+6.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 6.8% YoY.
AMH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $40 — implies +25.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
25.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AMH
27.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+9% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
AMH
27.5x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
+13% premium
vs AMH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.5x
vs
5Y Average
49.3x
44% discount
Forward PE
44.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+135%
Real Estate
26.5x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+9%
Real Estate
24.3x
+13%
5Y Avg
49.3x
-44%
PEG Ratio
0.82x
S&P 500
1.75x
-53%
Real Estate
1.22x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
17.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+15%
Real Estate
16.7x
+5%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+15%
Price/FCF
15.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-26%
Real Estate
15.7x
+0%
5Y Avg
21.5x
-27%
Price/Sales
6.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+102%
Real Estate
3.0x
+107%
5Y Avg
8.1x
-22%
Dividend Yield
3.82%
S&P 500
1.88%
+104%
Real Estate
4.67%
-18%
5Y Avg
2.51%
+53%
| Metric | AMH | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg AMH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.7x | 19.1x+135% | 26.5x+69% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.5x | 25.2x | 24.3x+13% | 49.3x-44% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.82x | 1.75x-53% | 1.22x-32% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.6x | 15.3x+15% | 16.7x | 15.2x+15% |
| Price/FCF | 15.8x | 21.3x-26% | 15.7x | 21.5x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 6.3x | 3.1x+102% | 3.0x+107% | 8.1x-22% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.82% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 2.51% |
AMH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAMH Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AMH pays 5.2% total shareholder yield with 31.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
31.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.22
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
31.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$109M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.0B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
5.8× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$162M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.24
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
101.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
363M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageAMH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Natural Disasters
AMH is exposed to the risk of natural disasters, which could significantly impact its properties and operational performance. Such events can lead to substantial repair costs and potential loss of rental income.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
The company maintains significant leverage on its balance sheet, making it highly susceptible to changes in interest rates. A rise in rates could increase borrowing costs and adversely affect profitability.
High Risk
Weakening Rental Demand
Recent trends indicate softening rental demand in both multifamily and single-family rental markets. This decline raises concerns about the optimism of current forecasts and could negatively impact revenue.
Medium
Market Dynamics and Competition
An oversupply of rental homes could increase competition, leading to downward pressure on rents and occupancy rates. Additionally, slowing lease rate growth may affect AMH's revenue and FFO growth trajectory.
Medium
Economic Dependence
AMH's financial performance is highly dependent on economic trends, employment growth, and housing affordability. Any downturn in these areas could adversely affect the company's revenue and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Risks
Changes in laws and regulations, as well as potential regulatory challenges for REITs expanding their single-family portfolios, pose significant risks. These changes could impact operational flexibility and financial performance.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest that AMH may be overvalued, with a low Value Score indicating it might be a poor pick for value investors. This perception could lead to reduced investor interest and stock price pressure.
Lower
Geographic Concentration
While AMH has a diversified footprint with a focus on Sunbelt markets, a lack of exposure to coastal markets could be a disadvantage if Sunbelt markets underperform. This geographic concentration may limit growth opportunities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AMH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Market Presence and Growth
AMH has a strong presence in high-demand markets like Dallas, Indianapolis, Atlanta, and Charlotte. The company plans to build approximately 1,900 homes in 2026, leveraging its substantial land holdings for future expansion.
Solid Financial Performance
AMH reported a revenue increase of 7.03% and earnings growth of 10.21% in 2025. The company's core FFO per share grew by 6.2% in Q3 2025 and 5.4% for the full year, alongside a market capitalization of $12.95 billion as of April 28, 2026.
Strategic Share Repurchase Program
AMH has initiated a US$500 million share repurchase authorization, reflecting management's confidence in the company's stock. This strategic move is part of their focus on portfolio optimization and disciplined capital management.
Consistent Dividend Growth
The company has a history of increasing its dividend for five consecutive years, currently offering a dividend yield of 4.36%. This consistent growth in dividends signals financial stability and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Despite a consensus rating of 'Hold', a notable percentage of analysts recommend 'Buy', indicating a generally positive outlook. The average 12-month price target from analysts ranges from $34.70 to $35.39, suggesting potential upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AMH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.44
52W Range Position
44%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$27.21
+19.2% from the low
52-Week High
$39.07
-17.0% from the high
1 Month
+11.48%
3 Month
+5.19%
YTD
+1.6%
1 Year
-16.2%
3Y CAGR
-2.6%
5Y CAGR
-2.5%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AMH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.7x
vs 39.7x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
vs +4.2% median
+71% above peer median
Net Margin
24.4%
vs 30.6% median
-20% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AMH AMH American Homes 4 Rent | $11.8B | 44.7x | +7.2% | 24.4% | Buy | +7.9% |
INV INVH Invitation Homes Inc. | $17.2B | 39.7x | +4.6% | 20.9% | Hold | +12.1% |
EQR EQR Equity Residential | $24.8B | 50.8x | +3.6% | 30.6% | Hold | +6.0% |
AVB AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $25.9B | 37.9x | +4.2% | 34.6% | Hold | +2.8% |
MAA MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $15.2B | 39.0x | +2.2% | 18.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AMH Dividend and Capital Return
AMH returns 5.2% total yield, led by a 3.82% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
3.82%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How AMH Splits Its Return
Div 3.82%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 3.82%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.24
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.6%
5Y Div CAGR
43.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$162M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
363M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.20 | +15.4% | 1.4% | 5.2% |
| 2024 | $1.04 | +18.2% | 0.0% | 2.8% |
| 2023 | $0.88 | +22.2% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2022 | $0.72 | +80.0% | 1.5% | 3.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsAMH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying +7.9% from the current price of $32. The bear case scenario is $25 and the bull case is $37.
02What is the AMH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AMH is $35 based on 36 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $38 (+15.6% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (-1.4%). The base case model target is $40.
03Is American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) stock overvalued in 2026?
AMH trades at 44.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AMH in 2026 are: (1) Natural Disasters — AMH is exposed to the risk of natural disasters, which could significantly impact its properties and operational performance. (2) Interest Rate Risk — The company maintains significant leverage on its balance sheet, making it highly susceptible to changes in interest rates. (3) Weakening Rental Demand — Recent trends indicate softening rental demand in both multifamily and single-family rental markets. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is American Homes 4 Rent's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AMH will report consensus revenue of $2.0B (+7.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.23 (+1.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.1B in revenue.
06When does American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) report its next earnings?
American Homes 4 Rent is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.18 and revenue of $471M. Over recent quarters, AMH has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does American Homes 4 Rent generate?
American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) generated $864M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 46.6%. AMH returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($162M TTM).