Upside case
Bull case
$163+55.5%
CPT would need investors to value it at roughly 106x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 68x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Camden Property Trust (CPT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
41
analysts
18 bullish · 2 bearish · 41 covering CPT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
21
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$112
+7.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $163
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
68.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
CPT price targets
Three scenarios for where CPT stock could go
Current
~$105
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $105
Bear
$76
Base
$89
Bull
$163
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$89-15.2%
At 58x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$76-27.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 19x multiple contraction could push CPT down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Camden Property Trust
CPT · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
Camden Property Trust is a residential real estate investment trust that owns, operates, and develops multifamily apartment communities across the United States. It generates revenue primarily from apartment rental income — with additional income from property management fees and development activities — and distributes most of its taxable income to shareholders as dividends. The company's competitive advantage lies in its high-quality portfolio concentrated in Sun Belt markets with strong job growth, combined with its vertically integrated development and management capabilities.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$1.2B
Net Income TTM
$388M
Net Margin
32.8%
CPT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+357.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.70/$0.33
Revenue
$397M/$397M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.70/$0.29
Revenue
$396M/$398M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.76/$0.34
Revenue
$391M/$393M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.28
Revenue
$389M/$378M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.70/$0.33 | +408.7% | $397M/$397M | -0.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.70/$0.29 | +483.8% | $396M/$398M | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.76/$0.34 | +415.5% | $391M/$393M | -0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.40/$0.28 | +42.1% | $389M/$378M | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.3B
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.13
-15.4% YoY
FY2
$3.00
-4.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$714M
FCF Margin: 60.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CPT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CPT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $120M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Real Estate, Other
94.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Real Estate, Other is the largest disclosed segment at 94.0% of FY 2018 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CPT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $126 — implies +21.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CPT
29.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+18% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
CPT
29.6x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+23% premium
vs CPT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.6x
vs
5Y Average
42.8x
31% discount
Forward PE
68.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+258%
Real Estate
26.4x
+159%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+18%
Real Estate
24.1x
+23%
5Y Avg
42.8x
-31%
PEG Ratio
1.27x
S&P 500
1.72x
-26%
Real Estate
1.25x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Real Estate
16.7x
-1%
5Y Avg
20.6x
-20%
Price/FCF
28.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+35%
Real Estate
15.4x
+84%
5Y Avg
51.4x
-45%
Price/Sales
7.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+123%
Real Estate
3.0x
+134%
5Y Avg
9.5x
-26%
Dividend Yield
4.06%
S&P 500
1.87%
+117%
Real Estate
4.66%
-13%
5Y Avg
3.32%
+22%
| Metric | CPT | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg CPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 68.4x | 19.1x+258% | 26.4x+159% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.6x | 25.1x+18% | 24.1x+23% | 42.8x-31% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.27x | 1.72x-26% | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 16.7x | 20.6x-20% |
| Price/FCF | 28.4x | 21.1x+35% | 15.4x+84% | 51.4x-45% |
| Price/Sales | 7.0x | 3.1x+123% | 3.0x+134% | 9.5x-26% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.06% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 3.32% |
CPT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCPT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CPT pays 6.5% total shareholder yield with 18.1% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-23.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
61.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.70
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
18.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$25M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
5.4× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (2.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
2.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$271M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.25
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
119.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
105M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageCPT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Volatility
Rising interest and capitalization rates pose a significant risk to Camden Property Trust's (CPT) financial performance. The muted transaction activity due to rate volatility could impact future growth, although there is some optimism for 2026-2027 as supply normalizes.
High Risk
Market-Specific Demand
While overall demand for apartments has been strong, certain markets like Washington D.C. and Houston may face weaker rental demand. This localized weakness could adversely affect CPT's revenue and occupancy rates.
Medium
Legal Uncertainties
CPT is currently navigating legal uncertainties, with some analysts suggesting that certain legal actions may be politically motivated. The ultimate financial impact of these litigations remains uncertain and is being closely monitored.
Medium
Supply Dynamics
Management believes the risk of increased development starts significantly impacting the supply pipeline is low in the near term due to current construction costs and interest rates. However, ongoing challenges related to supply dynamics in some markets could still pose risks.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses indicate that CPT may be overvalued, reflected in a Value Score of D, suggesting it might not be an attractive option for value investors. Nevertheless, other analyses show a consensus price target that indicates potential upside.
Lower
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
CPT has a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.88, which is relatively moderate. While this level of debt is manageable, it could limit financial flexibility in a rising interest rate environment.
Lower
Concentration Risk
CPT's focus on Sun Belt markets, which are experiencing job and population growth, presents a concentration risk. Significant migration out of core areas could negatively impact the company's outlook.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CPT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Capital Allocation
CPT is actively selling assets in Southern California to reinvest in higher-growth Sun Belt markets. This counter-cyclical strategy aims to capitalize on depressed valuations in regions like Atlanta, Dallas, Nashville, and Austin, positioning the company for stronger future performance.
Improving Market Fundamentals
While there are concerns about current supply levels in some markets, new construction starts are declining, and supply is expected to moderate in the Sun Belt region. This is anticipated to improve pricing power for landlords and benefit CPT's portfolio.
Strong Balance Sheet and Shareholder Returns
CPT maintains a strong balance sheet and offers an attractive dividend yield (around 4.11% to 4.2%), which is well-covered and expected to continue growing. The company is also aggressively repurchasing its stock, which is trading at a discount to its net asset value (NAV).
Operational Efficiency
CPT has demonstrated a focus on operational efficiency, managing expenses effectively and maintaining stable leasing spreads even in challenging conditions.
Valuation Discount Opportunity
The stock is trading at a discount to its net asset value, offering investors potential for valuation multiple expansion as market sentiment improves.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CPT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$104.74
52W Range Position
35%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.53
+8.5% from the low
52-Week High
$120.15
-12.8% from the high
1 Month
+3.61%
3 Month
-1.72%
YTD
-4.9%
1 Year
-12.1%
3Y CAGR
-1.7%
5Y CAGR
-2.4%
10Y CAGR
+2.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CPT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
68.4x
vs 46.5x median
+47% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.5%
vs +3.6% median
+136% above peer median
Net Margin
32.8%
vs 30.2% median
+9% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.4% |
MAA MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $15.1B | 39.0x | +2.2% | 18.2% | Buy | +10.4% |
UDR UDR UDR, Inc. | $12.0B | 66.1x | +2.9% | 28.6% | Buy | +9.0% |
EQR EQR Equity Residential | $24.8B | 50.9x | +3.6% | 30.6% | Hold | +5.9% |
AVB AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $25.8B | 37.6x | +4.2% | 34.6% | Hold | +3.5% |
ESS ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. | $17.2B | 46.5x | +5.3% | 30.2% | Hold | +4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CPT Dividend and Capital Return
CPT returns 6.5% total yield, led by a 4.06% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.5%
Dividend Yield
4.06%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How CPT Splits Its Return
Div 4.06%
Buyback 2.5%
Dividend 4.06%Buybacks 2.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.25
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.8%
5Y Div CAGR
4.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$271M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
105M
At 2.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.20 | +1.9% | 2.3% | 6.1% |
| 2024 | $4.12 | +3.0% | 0.4% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $4.00 | +6.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| 2022 | $3.76 | +13.3% | 0.0% | 3.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCPT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Camden Property Trust (CPT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Camden Property Trust (CPT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $112, implying +7.4% from the current price of $105. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $163.
02What is the CPT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CPT is $112 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+14.6% from today), and the low-end target is $107 (+2.2%). The base case model target is $89.
03Is Camden Property Trust (CPT) stock overvalued in 2026?
CPT trades at 68.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Camden Property Trust (CPT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CPT in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Volatility — Rising interest and capitalization rates pose a significant risk to Camden Property Trust's (CPT) financial performance. (2) Market-Specific Demand — While overall demand for apartments has been strong, certain markets like Washington D. (3) Legal Uncertainties — CPT is currently navigating legal uncertainties, with some analysts suggesting that certain legal actions may be politically motivated. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Camden Property Trust's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CPT will report consensus revenue of $1.3B (+8.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.13 (-15.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does Camden Property Trust (CPT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CPT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Camden Property Trust generate?
Camden Property Trust (CPT) generated $714M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 60.4%. CPT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($271M TTM).