Upside case
Bull case
$230+76.7%
MAA would need investors to value it at roughly 69x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 39x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering MAA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$144
+10.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$123 – $230
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
39.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
MAA price targets
Three scenarios for where MAA stock could go
Current
~$130
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $130
Bear
$123
Base
$135
Bull
$230
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$135+4.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MAA — at roughly 41x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$123-5.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push MAA down roughly 6% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.
MAA · NYSEReal EstateREIT - ResidentialDecember year-end
Mid-America Apartment Communities is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates a large portfolio of apartment communities primarily in the Sunbelt region of the United States. It generates revenue primarily through residential rental income from its owned apartment units, with additional income from property management fees and development activities. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategic concentration in high-growth Sunbelt markets and its scale as one of the largest publicly-traded apartment REITs.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$2.2B
Net Income TTM
$403M
Net Margin
18.2%
MAA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.15/$2.14
Revenue
$550M/$558M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.16/$2.17
Revenue
$554M/$557M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.23/$2.22
Revenue
$556M/$556M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.09/$0.83
Revenue
$554M/$556M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.15/$2.14 | +0.5% | $550M/$558M | -1.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.16/$2.17 | -0.5% | $554M/$557M | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.23/$2.22 | +0.5% | $556M/$556M | -0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09/$0.83 | +31.5% | $554M/$556M | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.3B
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$2.3B
+2.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.69
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$3.93
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$596M
FCF Margin: 26.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MAA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MAA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Same Store
94.0%
-0.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Same Store is the largest disclosed segment at 94.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.4% YoY.
MAA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $137 — implies +6.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
6.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MAA
34.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+37% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
MAA
34.4x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+43% premium
vs MAA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.4x
vs
5Y Average
35.6x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
39.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+104%
Real Estate
26.4x
+48%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+37%
Real Estate
24.1x
+43%
5Y Avg
35.6x
-3%
PEG Ratio
2.99x
S&P 500
1.72x
+74%
Real Estate
1.25x
+140%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+8%
Real Estate
16.7x
-1%
5Y Avg
20.4x
-19%
Price/FCF
21.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+0%
Real Estate
15.4x
+37%
5Y Avg
31.6x
-33%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+119%
Real Estate
3.0x
+130%
5Y Avg
9.3x
-27%
Dividend Yield
4.65%
S&P 500
1.87%
+149%
Real Estate
4.66%
-0%
5Y Avg
3.42%
+36%
| Metric | MAA | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg MAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 39.0x | 19.1x+104% | 26.4x+48% | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.4x | 25.1x+37% | 24.1x+43% | 35.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 2.99x | 1.72x+74% | 1.25x+140% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.5x | 15.2x | 16.7x | 20.4x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 21.1x | 21.1x | 15.4x+37% | 31.6x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+119% | 3.0x+130% | 9.3x-27% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.65% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 3.42% |
MAA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMAA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
MAA pays 4.8% total shareholder yield with 27.4% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.45
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
27.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$60M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.3B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
9.0× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.8%
Dividend
4.7%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$27M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.05
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
158.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
116M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageMAA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Rising interest rates can increase MAA's borrowing costs, potentially reducing funds available for distributions to shareholders. Higher interest rates may also lead investors to demand higher yields, negatively impacting MAA's stock market price.
High Risk
Economic Factors
Economic weakness and recessions are identified as potential risks for MAA. Declining national job growth and a potentially slower absorption rate present significant challenges that could affect the company's performance.
Medium
Apartment Supply
While apartment starts have slowed, concerns remain about new units entering the market in 2026 and 2027, which could lead to short-term weakness, especially if the economy struggles. Analysts are monitoring the divergence between renewal and new lease pricing, with expectations of rental rate growth acceleration in the second half of 2026.
Medium
Regulatory and Market Factors
Rent-control and affordability measures could pose risks to MAA's operations. Increased competition in key markets and changes in market conditions may adversely affect the stock price and the company's ability to meet market expectations.
Lower
Financial and Operational Risks
Despite a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-assets ratio of 30.2%, insufficient cash flow from operations or a decline in stock price could reduce cash available for obligations. Analysts express concerns that MAA's development lease-up assumptions may be overly aggressive given slower national employment growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MAA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Quality Portfolio and Attractive Valuation
MAA possesses high-quality apartment communities, particularly in Sunbelt regions, which are expected to drive future growth. The stock is seen as trading at an attractive valuation, with some analyses suggesting it is undervalued.
Sunbelt Market Focus
The company's concentration in Sunbelt markets is a strategic advantage, as these areas are experiencing strong demand for multifamily properties. Oversupply in these markets is also abating, which could lead to potential rent growth in the coming 12-18 months.
Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns
MAA has demonstrated robust revenue streams, with Q4 2025 revenue reaching $555.6 million. Its trailing twelve months (TTM) net income margin of 20.23% indicates operational efficiency, and a dividend yield of 4.84% shows a commitment to shareholder returns.
Development and Redevelopment Pipeline
MAA is actively investing in redevelopment and development projects, with a significant active development pipeline. This strategy, supported by recent financing, aims to enhance its portfolio and long-term value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MAA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$130.16
52W Range Position
22%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$120.30
+8.2% from the low
52-Week High
$166.04
-21.6% from the high
1 Month
+4.28%
3 Month
-0.43%
YTD
-6.4%
1 Year
-21.3%
3Y CAGR
-5.1%
5Y CAGR
-3.1%
10Y CAGR
+2.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MAA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
39.0x
vs 50.9x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
vs +4.2% median
-48% below peer median
Net Margin
18.2%
vs 30.6% median
-40% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAA MAA Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. | $15.1B | 39.0x | +2.2% | 18.2% | Buy | +10.4% |
EQR EQR Equity Residential | $24.8B | 50.9x | +3.6% | 30.6% | Hold | +5.9% |
AVB AVB AvalonBay Communities, Inc. | $25.8B | 37.6x | +4.2% | 34.6% | Hold | +3.5% |
CPT CPT Camden Property Trust | $11.0B | 68.4x | +8.5% | 32.8% | Hold | +7.4% |
UDR UDR UDR, Inc. | $12.0B | 66.1x | +2.9% | 28.6% | Buy | +9.0% |
ESS ESS Essex Property Trust, Inc. | $17.2B | 46.5x | +5.3% | 30.2% | Hold | +4.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MAA Dividend and Capital Return
MAA returns 4.8% total yield, led by a 4.65% dividend, raised 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
4.65%
Payout Ratio
1.6%
How MAA Splits Its Return
Div 4.65%
Dividend 4.65%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.05
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.0%
5Y Div CAGR
8.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$27M
Estimated Shares Retired
209.2K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
116M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $6.06 | +3.1% | 0.2% | 4.5% |
| 2024 | $5.88 | +5.0% | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $5.60 | +19.8% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 2022 | $4.67 | +14.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMAA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $144, implying +10.4% from the current price of $130. The bear case scenario is $123 and the bull case is $230.
02What is the MAA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MAA is $144 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $158 (+21.4% from today), and the low-end target is $134 (+3.0%). The base case model target is $135.
03Is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) stock overvalued in 2026?
MAA trades at 39.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MAA in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Risk — Rising interest rates can increase MAA's borrowing costs, potentially reducing funds available for distributions to shareholders. (2) Economic Factors — Economic weakness and recessions are identified as potential risks for MAA. (3) Apartment Supply — While apartment starts have slowed, concerns remain about new units entering the market in 2026 and 2027, which could lead to short-term weakness, especially if the economy struggles. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MAA will report consensus revenue of $2.3B (+2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.69 (+7.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.3B in revenue.
06When does Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MAA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. generate?
Mid-America Apartment Communities, Inc. (MAA) generated $596M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.9%. MAA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.7% yield) and share repurchases ($27M TTM).