Upside case
Bull case
$412+142.1%
ANET would need investors to value it at roughly 116x earnings — about 68x more generous than today's 48x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
38 bullish · 0 bearish · 51 covering ANET
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
13
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$186
+9.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$87 – $412
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
48.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $214.3B
ANET price targets
Three scenarios for where ANET stock could go
Current
~$170
Confidence
72 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $170
Bear
$87
Base
$320
Bull
$412
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$320+87.8%
At 90x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$87-49.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 24x multiple contraction could push ANET down roughly 49% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Arista Networks, Inc.
ANET · NYSETechnologyComputer HardwareDecember year-end
Arista Networks is a leading provider of high-performance cloud networking solutions, primarily selling Ethernet switches and routers for data centers and campus networks. It generates revenue through hardware sales (~70% of total) and subscription services (~30%) including software licenses and post-contract support. The company's key advantage is its Extensible Operating System (EOS) software platform—a modular, programmable architecture that enables superior network automation and reliability compared to traditional networking vendors.
Market Cap
$214.3B
Revenue TTM
$9.7B
Net Income TTM
$3.7B
Net Margin
38.3%
ANET Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.65/$0.59
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.65
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.72
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.82/$0.76
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.65/$0.59 | +10.2% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +1.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.65 | +12.5% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.75/$0.72 | +4.5% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82/$0.76 | +8.2% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +4.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+30.4% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
+22.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.42
+30.0% YoY
FY2
$4.19
+22.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.3B
FCF Margin: 54.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ANET beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ANET Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
84.1%
+28.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
79.1%
+24.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 84.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 28.8% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 79.1%, up 24.3% YoY.
ANET Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $85 — implies -51.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
51.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ANET
61.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+147% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ANET
61.9x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+132% premium
vs ANET 5Y Avg P/E
Today
61.9x
vs
5Y Average
43.1x
+43% premium
Forward PE
48.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+152%
Technology
22.1x
+117%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
61.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+147%
Technology
26.7x
+132%
5Y Avg
43.1x
+43%
PEG Ratio
1.52x
S&P 500
1.72x
-11%
Technology
1.52x
0%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
54.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+255%
Technology
17.5x
+209%
5Y Avg
37.9x
+42%
Price/FCF
50.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
+139%
Technology
19.5x
+158%
5Y Avg
49.8x
+1%
Price/Sales
23.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+661%
Technology
2.4x
+874%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+57%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ANET | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ANET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 48.1x | 19.1x+152% | 22.1x+117% | — |
| Trailing PE | 61.9x | 25.1x+147% | 26.7x+132% | 43.1x+43% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.52x | 1.72x-11% | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.1x | 15.2x+255% | 17.5x+209% | 37.9x+42% |
| Price/FCF | 50.4x | 21.1x+139% | 19.5x+158% | 49.8x |
| Price/Sales | 23.8x | 3.1x+661% | 2.4x+874% | 15.2x+57% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
ANET trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolANET Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ANET generates $5.3B in free cash flow at a 54.4% margin — 32.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+30.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
42.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
38.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.92
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$5.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
54.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
32.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
19.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
30.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageANET Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Customer Concentration
A significant portion of Arista’s revenue—about 26%—comes from Microsoft, a single large customer. A slowdown in Microsoft’s purchasing or a shift to competitors could materially reduce Arista’s top‑line growth and earnings. The company’s revenue diversification efforts are still limited, amplifying this exposure.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Arista competes with industry giants such as Cisco and emerging white‑box vendors, while consolidation could strengthen rivals. Integrated hardware‑software solutions from competitors threaten Arista’s differentiated product line, and there are concerns about losing market share to Nvidia. These dynamics could erode Arista’s market share and profitability.
Medium
Technology & Market Cyclicality
The networking market evolves rapidly, with AI and cloud demands fluctuating by region and customer type. Delays in AI networking revenue have already weighed on the stock price, and cyclical demand can compress margins during downturns. Continued technological shifts could require costly product updates.
Medium
Financial & Corporate Risks
Arista’s stock repurchase program is discretionary; a reduction or halt could depress the share price. A 1% excise tax on repurchases adds cost, and the company’s high beta (1.29) signals greater volatility, potentially triggering litigation or investor concerns. Insider selling activity may also raise red flags.
Lower
Macro & External Factors
Inflation, interest rate swings, and lingering pandemic effects can impact capital expenditures and network infrastructure spending. While Arista’s balance sheet is strong, macroeconomic headwinds could dampen overall demand for its products.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ANET Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Driven Networking Revenue Surge
Arista is positioned to capture the AI boom, with management projecting AI‑related networking revenue to climb from $1.5 billion in 2025 to $2.75 billion by 2026. Analysts note the company could grow annual revenue by nearly 40% in both the current and next year, and its total addressable market has expanded to roughly $105 billion.
Robust Financial Growth & Debt‑Free Balance Sheet
The firm has delivered 30% year‑over‑year revenue growth, with forecasts of 29.10% this year and 21.80% next year. EPS is expected to rise 30.64% this year and 21.29% next year, while the company remains debt‑free with strong returns on equity and assets.
Ethernet Switch Market Leadership
Arista dominates the Ethernet switch market and is poised for substantial growth in optical transceiver and laser revenues. Its track record shows consistent revenue compounding and free‑cash‑flow expansion, reinforcing its competitive moat.
XPO Optics Innovation Boosting Margins
The extra‑dense pluggable optics (XPO) strategy strengthens Arista’s position in AI infrastructure, helping secure business from major clients. Recurring software and services tied to EOS and CloudVision are expected to underpin long‑term earnings and margin growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ANET Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$170.22
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$82.80
+105.6% from the low
52-Week High
$179.80
-5.3% from the high
1 Month
+34.83%
3 Month
+32.29%
YTD
+27.4%
1 Year
+88.3%
3Y CAGR
+70.3%
5Y CAGR
+53.8%
10Y CAGR
+45.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ANET vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
48.1x
vs 23.2x median
+107% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+30.4%
vs +4.2% median
+618% above peer median
Net Margin
38.3%
vs 1.3% median
+2848% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANE ANET Arista Networks, Inc. | $214.3B | 48.1x | +30.4% | 38.3% | Buy | +9.4% |
CSC CSCO Cisco Systems, Inc. | $373.4B | 22.7x | +4.2% | 18.8% | Buy | +2.3% |
EXT EXTR Extreme Networks, Inc. | $3.2B | 23.2x | +2.0% | 1.3% | Hold | +11.8% |
CIE CIEN Ciena Corporation | $77.1B | 88.6x | +15.7% | 4.5% | Buy | -38.7% |
NTG NTGR NETGEAR, Inc. | $701M | 128.1x | -3.5% | -5.8% | Hold | +40.5% |
HPE HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company | $39.9B | 12.5x | +11.7% | -0.4% | Hold | -4.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ANET Dividend and Capital Return
ANET returns 0.7% annually — null% through dividends and 0.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsANET Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $186, implying +9.4% from the current price of $170. The bear case scenario is $87 and the bull case is $412.
02What is the ANET stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ANET is $186 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+17.5% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (+2.8%). The base case model target is $320.
03Is Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) stock overvalued in 2026?
ANET trades at 48.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ANET in 2026 are: (1) Customer Concentration — A significant portion of Arista’s revenue—about 26%—comes from Microsoft, a single large customer. (2) Competitive Pressure — Arista competes with industry giants such as Cisco and emerging white‑box vendors, while consolidation could strengthen rivals. (3) Technology & Market Cyclicality — The networking market evolves rapidly, with AI and cloud demands fluctuating by region and customer type. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Arista Networks, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ANET will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+30.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.42 (+30.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ANET is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Arista Networks, Inc. generate?
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) generated $5.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 54.4%. ANET returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.6B TTM).