Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing APG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 5, 2026
APi Group Corporation (APG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
8
analysts
8 bullish · 0 bearish · 8 covering APG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$53
+23.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
8
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.5B
APG price targets
Three scenarios for where APG stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 5, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
APi Group Corporation
APG · NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionDecember year-end
APi Group is a diversified industrial services company that provides safety, specialty, and industrial services across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. It generates revenue through three main segments: Safety Services (fire protection, HVAC, and entry systems), Specialty Services (infrastructure maintenance and industrial plant services), and Industrial Services (energy pipeline and transmission infrastructure). The company's competitive advantage lies in its end-to-end integrated service capabilities—particularly in safety systems—and its established relationships with public and private sector clients across critical infrastructure markets.
Market Cap
$18.5B
Revenue TTM
$8.2B
Net Income TTM
$324M
Net Margin
4.0%
APG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.37
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.39
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.41
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.32/$0.30
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.39/$0.37 | +5.4% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41/$0.39 | +5.1% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.41 | +6.5% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.32/$0.30 | +5.1% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.1B
+10.8% YoY
FY2
$10.0B
+11.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.96
+29.2% YoY
FY2
$1.07
+11.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$680M
FCF Margin: 8.3%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.44
Expected Revenue
$2.2B
APG beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
APG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Life Safety
83.3%
+15.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
65.5%
+18.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Life Safety is the largest disclosed segment at 83.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 15.1% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 65.5%, up 18.2% YoY.
APG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $43 — implies +2.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APG
-61.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.9x
348% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
APG
-61.8x
vs
Industrials
25.5x
342% discount
vs APG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-61.8x
vs
5Y Average
172.5x
136% discount
Forward PE
25.2x
S&P 500
18.9x
+33%
Industrials
21.1x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-61.8x
S&P 500
24.9x
-348%
Industrials
25.5x
-342%
5Y Avg
172.5x
-136%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Industrials
1.55x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
+55%
Industrials
13.6x
+74%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+38%
Price/FCF
27.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+31%
Industrials
20.2x
+38%
5Y Avg
25.8x
+8%
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-26%
Industrials
1.6x
+47%
5Y Avg
1.3x
+75%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Industrials
1.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | APG | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg APG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.2x | 18.9x+33% | 21.1x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | -61.8x | 24.9x-348% | 25.5x-342% | 172.5x-136% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.55x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 15.3x+55% | 13.6x+74% | 17.1x+38% |
| Price/FCF | 27.8x | 21.3x+31% | 20.2x+38% | 25.8x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-26% | 1.6x+47% | 1.3x+75% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.23% | — |
APG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPG Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
APG generates $680M in free cash flow at a 8.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
29.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.74
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$680M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$912M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.5× FCF
~3.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.4%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$75M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
433M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAPG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Execution Risks
APG has a high backlog and is engaged in multiple integration projects, which pose significant execution risks. Delays in energy, industrial, or data center projects could adversely affect the company's performance.
High Risk
Market Volatility
The stock price of APG is subject to fluctuations due to various factors, including financial performance and overall market sentiment. Changes in investor perception and analyst ratings can significantly impact the stock's value.
High Risk
Integration of Acquisitions
APG's growth strategy heavily relies on acquisitions, and failure to successfully integrate these businesses could negatively impact its financial condition and operational results.
Medium
Economic Conditions
Adverse developments in credit markets or a general economic downturn could reduce demand for APG's services, negatively affecting its financial performance.
Medium
Input Cost Inflation
Increasing wage and material costs pose a risk to APG's margins. Although the company can pass on some costs, persistent inflation remains a significant concern.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
While demand for APG's safety services is driven by regulations, any easing or slowing of safety requirements could negatively impact revenue.
Lower
Operational Risks
Operational risks related to the quality or safety of services provided could damage APG's reputation. Issues in service delivery may lead to customer dissatisfaction and potential financial repercussions.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
APG faces increased risks from cyber criminals targeting government pandemic response programs and a rise in online fraud scams. These cybersecurity threats could impact operational integrity and financial performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Revenue Growth and Profitability
APG has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 12.72% increase in 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching $7.91 billion. The company has also seen increases in net income and operating income year-over-year.
Recurring Revenue Model
The company's focus on inspection-led services and recurring revenue streams, which now constitute over 53% of sales, provides a stable and predictable cash flow. This model is projected to exceed 70% in some scenarios, supported by mandatory safety inspections.
Strategic Acquisitions
APG has a history of successful, disciplined acquisitions, particularly in the fire safety sector. These acquisitions bolster its portfolio and expand its reach, enhancing overall business growth.
Growth in Emerging Sectors
There is significant upside potential from APG's expanding exposure to data center and AI-related infrastructure, specifically in fire suppression and life-safety retrofits. This segment is expected to contribute to a higher CAGR through 2028.
Financial Targets and Cash Flow
The company has set ambitious targets, including $10 billion in revenue by 2028 and a 16% EBITDA margin. APG aims to generate substantial cumulative adjusted free cash flow through 2028, with projections of $3 billion to $4 billion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$42.66
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.72
+34.5% from the low
52-Week High
$49.99
-14.7% from the high
1 Month
-3.31%
3 Month
+2.57%
YTD
+9.5%
1 Year
+33.0%
3Y CAGR
+36.5%
5Y CAGR
+23.4%
10Y CAGR
+19.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.2x
vs 40.6x median
-38% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.8%
vs +13.4% median
-19% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs 3.7% median
+7% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APG APG APi Group Corporation | $18.5B | 25.2x | +10.8% | 4.0% | Buy | +23.1% |
MYR MYRG MYR Group Inc. | $6.6B | 37.4x | +8.3% | 3.7% | Hold | -2.9% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $102.5B | 48.8x | +17.7% | 3.7% | Buy | -1.3% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $28.3B | 40.6x | +15.4% | 3.0% | Buy | +16.2% |
WLD WLDN Willdan Group, Inc. | $1.5B | 23.6x | +7.9% | 8.2% | Buy | +20.5% |
CTO CTOS Custom Truck One Source, Inc. | $2.4B | 96.5x | +13.4% | -0.9% | Buy | +14.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APG Dividend and Capital Return
APG returns 0.4% annually — null% through dividends and 0.4% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$75M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
433M
FAQ
7 questionsAPG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is APi Group Corporation (APG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
APi Group Corporation (APG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 8 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $53, implying +23.1% from the current price of $43.
02What is the APG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for APG is $53 based on 8 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $55 (+28.9% from today), and the low-end target is $49 (+14.9%).
03Is APi Group Corporation (APG) stock overvalued in 2026?
APG trades at 25.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for APi Group Corporation (APG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APG in 2026 are: (1) Execution Risks — APG has a high backlog and is engaged in multiple integration projects, which pose significant execution risks. (2) Market Volatility — The stock price of APG is subject to fluctuations due to various factors, including financial performance and overall market sentiment. (3) Integration of Acquisitions — APG's growth strategy heavily relies on acquisitions, and failure to successfully integrate these businesses could negatively impact its financial condition and operational results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is APi Group Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APG will report consensus revenue of $9.1B (+10.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.96 (+29.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.0B in revenue.
06When does APi Group Corporation (APG) report its next earnings?
APi Group Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.44 and revenue of $2.2B. Over recent quarters, APG has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does APi Group Corporation generate?
APi Group Corporation (APG) generated $680M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.3%. APG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($75M TTM).