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APi Group Corporation (APG)
Valuation Overview•Is APi Group Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Moderate quality score of 50/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
APG struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 6.7%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.0B | +12.7% | +6.5% | +17.1% | — | |
| EBITDA | $233.0M | — | +23.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $57.0M | +20.8% | +60.5% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.12 | -23.2% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $67.0M | +23.7% | +51.4% | +7.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 29.1% | 30.2% | 28.1% | 24.9% |
| Operating Margin | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Net Margin | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.4% | -0.1% |
| FCF Margin | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.30 | $0.32 | +5.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.41 | $0.44 | +6.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.39 | $0.41 | +5.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.37 | $0.39 | +5.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.23 | $0.25 | +8.7% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.52 | $0.51 | -1.9% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.51 | $0.51 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.47 | $0.49 | +4.3% |
Total return is +14.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -1.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +1.5% | -6.6% | — |
| 1Y | +14.1% | -1.9% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +28.2% | +17.3% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +23.9% | +13.0% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +19.0% | +6.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.8x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about APi Group Corporation (APG) valuation, health, and returns.
APi Group Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -43.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $22.18)
APi Group Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $22.18 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $57.61 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $53.25 (implying +33.4% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
APi Group Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 50/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.4%.
APi Group Corporation does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
APi Group Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +12.7% 1Y revenue growth and -23.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 8 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +33.4% change from current levels.
Investment risks for APi Group Corporation include: -21.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.24x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.