Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing TPG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
TPG Inc. (TPG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering TPG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$65
+42.5% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.5B
TPG price targets
Three scenarios for where TPG stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Base
$67
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$67+46.3%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TPG Inc.
TPG · NASDAQFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
TPG is a global alternative asset manager that invests in private equity, real estate, credit, and other alternative assets through various funds. It generates revenue primarily from management fees — typically 1-2% of assets under management — and performance fees or carried interest, which can be 20% or more of fund profits. The firm's competitive advantage lies in its deep sector expertise, long-term investment track record, and extensive network of relationships that provide proprietary deal flow.
Market Cap
$17.5B
Net Income TTM
$18M
TPG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+16.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.69/$0.45
Revenue
$921M/$488M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.56
Revenue
$840M/$540M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.71/$0.64
Revenue
$628M/$614M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.70/$0.61
Revenue
$557M/$608M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.69/$0.45 | +52.8% | $921M/$488M | +88.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.53/$0.56 | -5.7% | $840M/$540M | +55.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.71/$0.64 | +11.1% | $628M/$614M | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.70/$0.61 | +14.8% | $557M/$608M | -8.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.8B
+23.6% YoY
FY2
$7.7B
+34.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.41
+2894.7% YoY
FY2
$1.77
+25.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$972M
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.66
Expected Revenue
$628M
TPG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TPG Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Management fees
75.3%
+11.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Management fees is the largest disclosed segment at 75.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.5% YoY.
TPG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $116 — implies +162.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
162.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TPG
37.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+50% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
TPG
37.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+183% premium
vs TPG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.7x
vs
5Y Average
124.5x
70% discount
Forward PE
16.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-14%
Financial Services
10.4x
+58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+50%
Financial Services
13.3x
+183%
5Y Avg
124.5x
-70%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+47%
Financial Services
11.4x
+96%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+73%
Price/FCF
17.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-17%
Financial Services
10.6x
+65%
5Y Avg
20.2x
-14%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+20%
Financial Services
2.2x
+68%
5Y Avg
6.0x
-37%
Dividend Yield
17.63%
S&P 500
1.87%
+844%
Financial Services
2.70%
+554%
5Y Avg
7.16%
+146%
| Metric | TPG | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg TPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.5x | 19.1x-14% | 10.4x+58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.7x | 25.1x+50% | 13.3x+183% | 124.5x-70% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.3x | 15.2x+47% | 11.4x+96% | 12.9x+73% |
| Price/FCF | 17.4x | 21.1x-17% | 10.6x+65% | 20.2x-14% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+20% | 2.2x+68% | 6.0x-37% |
| Dividend Yield | 17.63% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 7.16% |
TPG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTPG Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TPG generates 0.4% ROE and 0.1% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.05
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
0.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$826M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$896M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
0.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
17.6%
Dividend
17.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$8.04
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
665.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
383M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageTPG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Management fees dependence
Management fees contributes 75.3% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 11.5%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
TPG trades at 37.7x trailing earnings versus 25.1x for the S&P 500 and 13.3x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $5.8B in revenue (23.6% growth) and $1.41 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $972M in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield, and a 17.6% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TPG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
TPG Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with — gross margin, — operating margin, and $972M in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Transaction Fees still matters
Transaction Fees accounts for 9.5% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 64.6%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $65, or 42.5% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $5.8B in forward revenue and $1.41 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 17.6% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TPG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.61
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$36.95
+23.4% from the low
52-Week High
$70.38
-35.2% from the high
1 Month
+20.25%
3 Month
-14.81%
YTD
-30.6%
1 Year
-3.3%
3Y CAGR
+19.8%
5Y CAGR
+6.1%
10Y CAGR
+3.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TPG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.5x
vs 16.7x median
-1% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.6%
vs +15.0% median
+57% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TPG TPG TPG Inc. | $17.5B | 16.5x | +23.6% | — | Buy | +42.5% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.9B | 16.7x | +4.5% | — | Buy | +40.2% |
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.5B | 11.9x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +31.3% |
APO APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $74.0B | 14.7x | -17.3% | — | Buy | +20.7% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.4B | 20.2x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +44.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TPG Dividend and Capital Return
TPG returns 17.6% total yield, led by a 17.63% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
17.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
17.63%
Payout Ratio
6.7%
How TPG Splits Its Return
Div 17.63%
Dividend 17.63%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$8.04
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.0%
5Y Div CAGR
13.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
383M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.61 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.98 | +20.0% | 0.0% | 12.6% |
| 2024 | $1.65 | +17.9% | 0.3% | 3.9% |
| 2023 | $1.40 | +28.4% | 4.8% | 9.5% |
| 2022 | $1.09 | — | 4.1% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsTPG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TPG Inc. (TPG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TPG Inc. (TPG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $65, implying +42.5% from the current price of $46.
02What is the TPG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TPG is $65 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $80 (+75.4% from today), and the low-end target is $47 (+3.0%). The base case model target is $67.
03Is TPG Inc. (TPG) stock overvalued in 2026?
TPG trades at 16.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TPG Inc. (TPG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TPG in 2026 are: (1) Management fees dependence — Management fees contributes 75. (2) Valuation de-rating — TPG trades at 37. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TPG Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TPG will report consensus revenue of $5.8B (+23.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.41 (+2894.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.7B in revenue.
06When does TPG Inc. (TPG) report its next earnings?
TPG Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.66 and revenue of $628M. Over recent quarters, TPG has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does TPG Inc. generate?
TPG Inc. (TPG) generated $972M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. TPG returns capital to shareholders through dividends (17.6% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).