Upside case
Bull case
$128+395.9%
APOS would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewNo CoverageUpdated —
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Mixed
Covering
—
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 0 covering APOS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $128
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
—
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.0B
APOS price targets
Three scenarios for where APOS stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
28 / 100
Updated
—
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$23
Base
$49
Bull
$128
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$49+88.8%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-12.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push APOS down roughly 12% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Apollo Global Management, Inc.
APOS · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
Apollo Global Management is a leading alternative asset manager that invests across credit, private equity, and real assets. It generates fees from asset management — including management fees and performance fees — and insurance-related income through its retirement services business, Athene, which contributes roughly half of its earnings. Apollo's competitive advantage lies in its deep credit expertise, permanent capital structure through Athene, and ability to execute complex transactions across market cycles.
Market Cap
$15.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.5B
APOS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
3 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 3 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 3Q3 2025
EPS
$1.02/$1.84
Revenue
$6.8B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.86/$1.90
Revenue
$9.8B/$4.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.47/$2.04
Revenue
$9.9B/$4.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.02/$1.84 | -44.6% | $6.8B/$4.6B | +49.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.86/$1.90 | +50.5% | $9.8B/$4.9B | +98.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.47/$2.04 | +21.1% | $9.9B/$4.8B | +106.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$37.0B
+15.4% YoY
FY2
$45.3B
+22.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.49
+45.4% YoY
FY2
$10.46
+23.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
APOS beat EPS estimates in 2 of 3 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
APOS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $32.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Retirement Services Segment
84.4%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Retirement Services Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 84.4% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
APOS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $150 — implies +483.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
483.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
APOS
4.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
81% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
APOS
4.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
65% discount
vs APOS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
4.7x
vs
5Y Average
3.9x
+20% premium
Forward PE
2.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-85%
Financial Services
10.5x
-73%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
4.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-81%
Financial Services
13.4x
-65%
5Y Avg
3.9x
+20%
PEG Ratio
0.07x
S&P 500
1.75x
-96%
Financial Services
1.03x
-93%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
1.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-93%
Financial Services
11.4x
-90%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+97%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
3.7x
—
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-85%
Financial Services
2.3x
-79%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
6.61%
—
| Metric | APOS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg APOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.8x | 19.1x-85% | 10.5x-73% | — |
| Trailing PE | 4.7x | 25.2x-81% | 13.4x-65% | 3.9x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.07x | 1.75x-96% | 1.03x-93% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.1x | 15.3x-93% | 11.4x-90% | 0.6x+97% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 3.7x |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-85% | 2.3x-79% | 0.5x-13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 6.61% |
APOS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAPOS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
APOS generates 12.0% ROE and 0.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.84
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
10.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$7.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
578M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageAPOS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Leveraged Entities
Apollo Global Management's investments in highly leveraged entities are more sensitive to revenue declines, increased expenses, and interest rate fluctuations. This heightened sensitivity increases the risk of loss compared to less indebted companies.
High Risk
Debt Financing Markets
The retirement services business relies on access to lending and debt markets for capital and liquidity. Changes in these markets can significantly impact the company's access to capital, potentially affecting its operations.
High Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Changes in market interest rates can affect the attractiveness of APOS's distribution rate compared to alternative investments. This could lead to sales of APOS shares and a decline in its value, especially with the transition of LIBOR.
Medium
Revenue and Earnings Volatility
The timing of performance fees from managed funds can be uncertain, contributing to volatility in the company's results. This variability can lead to fluctuations in share price and make quarterly performance less indicative of future results.
Medium
Credit Risk
Apollo faces the risk of loss due to borrowers defaulting on loans or failing to meet contractual obligations. This credit risk could adversely affect the company's financial stability.
Medium
Liquidity Risk
There is a risk of being unable to sell assets quickly without a significant loss in value, or not having enough cash to meet short-term obligations. The illiquidity of loan investments can make it difficult for Apollo to sell them when needed.
Lower
Legal & Regulatory Risks
Legal and regulatory risks account for 23% of total risks for Apollo, suggesting potential exposure to compliance issues, changes in regulations, or legal disputes that could impact operations.
Lower
Market Volatility
The stock price can be volatile due to various market factors, including economic downturns and competition, which can adversely affect business operations and financial results.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why APOS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Fee-Based Earnings
Apollo is recognized as a leading alternative asset manager with a dependable fee-based earnings stream, which is often underappreciated by the market. This model provides stability and predictability, contributing to the company's overall resilience.
Strategic Positioning in Private Markets
The company excels in private credit, insurance-linked capital, and opportunistic private equity. Apollo has a proven ability to deploy capital effectively during market dislocations, capitalizing on opportunities where public markets pull back.
Capital Deployment and Origination
Apollo has a history of making significant investments during market downturns, deploying capital at attractive returns. Its proprietary origination capabilities allow it to manufacture yield, enhancing its competitive edge.
Growth and Expansion
Analysts project earnings growth, with estimates for EPS to grow at a compound annual rate of 13.2% over the next three to five years. The company is also focused on global wealth expansion and share buybacks, further supporting its growth trajectory.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A majority of analysts covering Apollo Global Management stock have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating. This positive sentiment reflects confidence in the company's strategic direction and potential for stock price appreciation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
APOS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$25.89
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$25.25
+2.5% from the low
52-Week High
$27.43
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+1.13%
3 Month
-1.63%
YTD
-1.8%
1 Year
-1.9%
3Y CAGR
+0.1%
5Y CAGR
+0.1%
10Y CAGR
+0.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
APOS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.8x
vs 16.5x median
-83% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.4%
vs +17.9% median
-14% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
APO APOS Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $15.0B | 2.8x | +15.4% | — | — | — |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $97.7B | 20.9x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +25.3% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $89.9B | 16.5x | -20.3% | — | Buy | +41.9% |
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.3B | 11.8x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +32.5% |
TPG TPG TPG Inc. | $17.3B | 16.3x | +23.6% | — | Buy | +44.4% |
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.7B | 20.3x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +43.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
APOS Dividend and Capital Return
APOS does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.38
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
578M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.95 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.91 | +0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.91 | +218.6% | 5.6% | 12.4% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | — | 3.5% | 9.9% |
FAQ
6 questionsAPOS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) has limited published analyst coverage at this time. The model scenario range runs from $23 to $128 around a current price of $26. Use the scenario targets and valuation multiples on this page as a guide.
02Is Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) stock overvalued in 2026?
APOS trades at 2.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for APOS in 2026 are: (1) Leveraged Entities — Apollo Global Management's investments in highly leveraged entities are more sensitive to revenue declines, increased expenses, and interest rate fluctuations. (2) Debt Financing Markets — The retirement services business relies on access to lending and debt markets for capital and liquidity. (3) Interest Rate Risk — Changes in market interest rates can affect the attractiveness of APOS's distribution rate compared to alternative investments. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Apollo Global Management, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates APOS will report consensus revenue of $37.0B (+15.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.49 (+45.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $45.3B in revenue.
05When does Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for APOS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Apollo Global Management, Inc. generate?
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APOS) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. APOS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).