ARKO trades 242.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $14.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ARKO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 38.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Arko Corp. (ARKO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $14.50, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $4.23, this represents a potential upside of +242.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $475M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $7.00 to a high of $22.00, representing a 103% spread in expectations. The median target of $14.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, ARKO trades at a trailing P/E of 28.2x and forward P/E of 38.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 2.38 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -13.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $11.43, with bear and bull scenarios of $7.20 and $15.06 respectively. Model confidence stands at 43/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MUSAMurphy USA Inc. | $9.4B | $506.24 | $605.67 | +19.6% | Hold | 14.5x | 11 |
 CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $22.1B | $597.31 | $823.57 | +37.9% | Buy | 28.0x | 26 |
 DINOHF Sinclair Corporation | $19.1B | $106.14 | $106.38 | +0.2% | Buy | 6.6x | 16 |
 CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LP | $837M | $21.93 | — | — | Hold | 16.5x | 15 |
 SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc. | $99M | $7.35 | $10.00 | +36.1% | Hold | 5.9x | 8 |
 ANGIAngi Inc. | $204M | $5.05 | $8.75 | +73.3% | Hold | — | 55 |
 NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | $2.3B | $58.11 | $61.00 | +5.0% | Hold | 9.7x | 7 |
 VLOValero Energy Corporation | $111.6B | $375.84 | $366.80 | -2.4% | Buy | 8.0x | 37 |
 MPCMarathon Petroleum Corporation | $113.4B | $388.38 | $388.89 | +0.1% | Buy | 7.0x | 33 |
 PSXPhillips 66 | $102.8B | $256.48 | $266.30 | +3.8% | Buy | 9.2x | 35 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ARKO stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for ARKO is $14.5, representing 242.8% upside from the current price of $4.23. With 4 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
ARKO has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $14.5 implies 242.8% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 38.4545x, ARKO trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $14.5 (242.8% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $22 for ARKO, while the most conservative target is $7. The consensus of $14.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $15 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ARKO is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ARKO stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $14.5, with estimates ranging from $7 (bear case) to $22 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $11, with bear/bull scenarios of $7/$15.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ARKO's fair value at $11 (base case), with a bear case of $7 and bull case of $15. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.
ARKO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 38.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 28.2x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on ARKO, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $14.5 price target (242.8% upside). 1 of 4 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ARKO analyst price targets range from $7 to $22, a 103% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $14.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $7-$15 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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