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MUSAMurphy USA Inc.
$551.26$10.2B
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MUSA logo

Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Price Target Analysis

Updated Jun 18, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 11 analysts

4.9% Above Target

MUSA trades 4.9% above Wall Street's consensus target of $524.25.

Current Price$551.26
Average Target$524.25
Target
Current
Low$450.00
Median$483.50
High$680.00

Analyst Target Range

Forward P/E17.3x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio1.33
(Fair)
Implied Growth+7.4%
(Low)
Analyst Spread43.9%
(Moderate)

Price Forecast (1 Year)

Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path

Current$551.26
Consensus$524.25
High$680.00
Low$450.00

Consensus Scenario Assumptions

The base valuation assumes MUSA achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 17.3x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 11 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.

Analyst Ratings Distribution

Breakdown of 11 published analyst recommendations for MUSA

55% hold / mixed conviction
+5
BearishBullish
Weighted analyst sentiment score based on 11 ratings
ConsensusHold
Coverage11 Analysts
Net Score+5
Bull / Bear27% / 18%
Strong Buy00%
Buy327%
Hold655%
Sell218%
Strong Sell00%
Strong Buy
00%
Buy
327%
Hold
655%
Sell
218%
Strong Sell
00%
Recommendation Mix27% Buy · 55% Hold · 18% Sell
Buy (3)Hold (6)Sell (2)

MUSA Price Target Analysis

Updated June 22, 2026

As of June 22, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $524.25, based on estimates from 11 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $551.26, this represents a potential downside of -4.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $10.20B.

Analyst price targets range from a low of $450.00 to a high of $680.00, representing a 44% spread in expectations. The median target of $483.50 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates.

The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.

From a valuation perspective, MUSA trades at a trailing P/E of 22.9x and forward P/E of 17.3x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.33 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +7.4% over the next year.

Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $831.53, with bear and bull scenarios of $523.87 and $1095.63 respectively. Model confidence stands at 52/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.

Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.

Analyst Sentiment Comparison

Industry Peer Analysis
Avg Peer Upside
+16.4%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
17.8x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
6 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
CompanyMarket CapPriceTargetUpside PotentialRatingFwd P/EAnalysts
CASY logo
CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.
$31.2B$842.25$916.92
+8.9%
Buy39.5x25
ARKO logo
ARKOArko Corp.
$840M$7.49$7.58
+1.2%
Hold25.8x4
SUN logo
SUNSunoco LP
$8.7B$63.50$74.50
+17.3%
Hold7.4x24
DINO logo
DINOHF Sinclair Corporation
$11.6B$64.50$71.67
+11.1%
Buy7.3x16
NTB logo
NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
$2.3B$58.58$61.00
+4.1%
Hold9.5x7
CAPL logo
CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LP
$840M$22.02——Hold20.8x15
IMKTA logo
IMKTAIngles Markets, Incorporated
$1.7B$87.43—————
WMK logo
WMKWeis Markets, Inc.
$1.9B$76.74———9.7x—
COKE logo
COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.
$15.2B$181.54——Hold—1
PTLO logo
PTLOPortillo's Inc.
$307M$4.26$6.63
+55.6%
Hold22.2x12

MUSA — Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MUSA stock.

What is the MUSA stock price target for 2026?

Wall Street's consensus price target for MUSA is $524.25, -4.9% from its current price of $551.26. The below-market target from 11 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.

Is MUSA a buy, sell, or hold?

MUSA has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 11 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $524.25 implies -4.9% downside from current levels.

Is MUSA stock overvalued or undervalued?

With a forward P/E of 17.3396x, MUSA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $524.25 implies -4.9% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.

How high can MUSA stock go?

The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $680 for MUSA, while the most conservative target is $450. The consensus of $524.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $1096 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.

How many analysts cover MUSA stock?

MUSA is moderately covered, with 11 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.

What is the MUSA stock forecast?

The 12-month MUSA stock forecast based on 11 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $524.25, with estimates ranging from $450 (bear case) to $680 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $832, with bear/bull scenarios of $524/$1096.

What is MUSA's fair value based on fundamentals?

Our quantitative valuation model calculates MUSA's fair value at $832 (base case), with a bear case of $524 and bull case of $1096. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 52/100.

What is MUSA's forward P/E ratio?

MUSA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.3x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 22.9x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.

Should I buy MUSA stock?

Analysts are cautious on MUSA, with 2 Sell ratings and a price target of $524.25 (-4.9% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Why do MUSA price targets vary so much?

MUSA analyst price targets range from $450 to $680, a 44% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $524.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $524-$1096 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.

Consensus-Based Analysis Tools

Full Stock Analysis

Deep dive into MUSA consensus models and risk factors.

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Intrinsic Valuation

DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.

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Historical Returns

10-year return with dividends reinvested.

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Peer Comparison

Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.

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