Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$581.20
Price Target
$504.25
Target Range
$450.00 — $600.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E19.8x
Trailing P/E24.1x
Forward PEG1.53
Implied Growth-1.0%
Median Target$483.50
Analyst Spread29.7%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$450
-22.6%
Consensus
$504
-13.2%
Bull Case
$600
+3.2%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 61/100
Bear$308
Base$704
Bull$1283
MUSA Price Target Analysis
Updated May 8, 2026As of May 8, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $504.25, based on estimates from 11 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $581.20, this represents a potential downside of -13.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $10.75B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $450.00 to a high of $600.00, representing a 30% spread in expectations. The median target of $483.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, MUSA trades at a trailing P/E of 24.1x and forward P/E of 19.8x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.53 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -1.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $704.17, with bear and bull scenarios of $307.66 and $1283.18 respectively. Model confidence stands at 61/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+6.9%
Avg Forward P/E22.8x
Peers with Coverage6 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.6B | $850.95 | $688.10 | -19.1% | Buy | 47.1x | 25 |
 ARKOArko Corp. | $753M | $6.71 | $7.58 | +13.0% | Hold | 25.8x | 4 |
 SUNSunoco LP | $9.3B | $67.80 | $68.00 | +0.3% | Hold | 9.4x | 24 |
 DINOHF Sinclair Corporation | $12.7B | $70.50 | $61.57 | -12.7% | Buy | 12.5x | 16 |
 NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | $2.2B | $56.23 | $57.00 | +1.4% | Hold | 9.1x | 7 |
 CAPLCrossAmerica Partners LP | $812M | $21.30 | — | — | Hold | 49.5x | 15 |
 IMKTAIngles Markets, Incorporated | $1.6B | $85.78 | — | — | — | — | — |
 WMKWeis Markets, Inc. | $1.7B | $70.70 | — | — | — | 8.9x | — |
 COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $14.9B | $177.61 | — | — | Hold | — | 1 |
 PTLOPortillo's Inc. | $315M | $4.36 | $6.92 | +58.7% | Hold | 20.3x | 12 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonMUSA — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MUSA stock.
What is the MUSA stock price target for 2026?
MUSA's consensus price target is $504.25, -13.2% below the current price of $581.2. The 11 analysts tracking MUSA see downside risk at present valuations.
Is MUSA a buy, sell, or hold?
MUSA has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 11 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $504.25 implies -13.2% downside from current levels.
Is MUSA stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 19.8436x, MUSA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $504.25 implies -13.2% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can MUSA stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $600 for MUSA, while the most conservative target is $450. The consensus of $504.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $1283 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover MUSA stock?
MUSA is moderately covered, with 11 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the MUSA stock forecast?
The 12-month MUSA stock forecast based on 11 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $504.25, with estimates ranging from $450 (bear case) to $600 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $704, with bear/bull scenarios of $308/$1283.
What is MUSA's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MUSA's fair value at $704 (base case), with a bear case of $308 and bull case of $1283. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 61/100.
What is MUSA's forward P/E ratio?
MUSA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 24.1x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy MUSA stock?
Analysts are cautious on MUSA, with 2 Sell ratings and a price target of $504.25 (-13.2% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do MUSA price targets vary so much?
MUSA analyst price targets range from $450 to $600, a 30% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $504.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $308-$1283 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.