Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of March 1, 2026, Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $451.25, based on estimates from 11 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $390.74, this represents a potential upside of +15.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $7.25B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $410.00 to a high of $500.00, representing a 20% spread in expectations. The median target of $447.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, MUSA trades at a trailing P/E of 16.2x and forward P/E of 15.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.41 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -0.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $417.13, with bear and bull scenarios of $176.68 and $1090.34 respectively. Model confidence stands at 59/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Price is only half the story. See total return with reinvested dividends.
Launch CalculatorSee our Bear / Base / Bull DCF models and intrinsic value estimates.
View ValuationSee how MUSA stacks up against sector leader Alibaba Group Holding Limited.
Start ComparisonMurphy USA Inc. (MUSA) has a consensus 12-month price target of $451.25, implying 15.5% upside from $390.74. The 11 analysts covering MUSA see moderate appreciation potential.
MUSA has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 11 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $451.25 implies 15.5% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 15.6407x, MUSA trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $451.25 implies 15.5% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $500 for MUSA, while the most conservative target is $410. The consensus of $451.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $1090 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MUSA is moderately covered, with 11 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 2 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MUSA stock forecast based on 11 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $451.25, with estimates ranging from $410 (bear case) to $500 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $417, with bear/bull scenarios of $177/$1090.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MUSA's fair value at $417 (base case), with a bear case of $177 and bull case of $1090. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 59/100.
MUSA trades at a forward P/E ratio of 15.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 16.2x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on MUSA, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $451.25 price target (15.5% upside). 3 of 11 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MUSA analyst price targets range from $410 to $500, a 20% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $451.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $177-$1090 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.