Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing ARWR more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
20
analysts
15 bullish · 0 bearish · 20 covering ARWR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$81
+4.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.9B
ARWR price targets
Three scenarios for where ARWR stock could go
Current
~$78
Confidence
30 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ARWR · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologySeptember year-end
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company that develops RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics for intractable diseases. It generates revenue primarily through research collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical partners — including upfront payments, milestone payments, and royalties on future sales — while advancing its own pipeline of clinical-stage candidates. The company's key advantage is its proprietary Targeted RNAi Molecule (TRiM™) platform, which enables precise delivery of RNAi therapeutics to specific tissues and cells.
Market Cap
$10.9B
Revenue TTM
$622M
Net Income TTM
-$301M
Net Margin
-48.4%
ARWR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
40%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+210.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.75/$-0.06
Revenue
$543M/$116M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-1.26/$-0.94
Revenue
$28M/$154M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.18/$-0.11
Revenue
$256M/$175M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.60
Revenue
$264M/$214M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.75/$-0.06 | +4683.3% | $543M/$116M | +366.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $-1.26/$-0.94 | -34.0% | $28M/$154M | -82.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.18/$-0.11 | -61.3% | $256M/$175M | +46.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.60 | -63.3% | $264M/$214M | +23.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+0.2% YoY
FY2
$1.5B
+37.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-4.27
-396.9% YoY
FY2
$-5.40
-26.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$51M
FCF Margin: -8.2%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-1.17
Expected Revenue
$72M
ARWR beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ARWR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $67 — implies -10.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ARWR
-6389.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
25527% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ARWR
-6389.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.3x
28721% discount
vs ARWR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-6389.3x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
18.8x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-6389.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-25527%
Healthcare
22.3x
-28721%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.70x
—
Healthcare
1.62x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
90.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
+490%
Healthcare
14.4x
+528%
5Y Avg
38.9x
+133%
Price/FCF
69.6x
S&P 500
21.4x
+225%
Healthcare
18.5x
+275%
5Y Avg
36.6x
+90%
Price/Sales
13.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+327%
Healthcare
2.8x
+366%
5Y Avg
19.7x
-33%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.90%
—
Healthcare
1.44%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ARWR | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ARWR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 18.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | -6389.3x | 25.1x-25527% | 22.3x-28721% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.70x | 1.62x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 90.4x | 15.3x+490% | 14.4x+528% | 38.9x+133% |
| Price/FCF | 69.6x | 21.4x+225% | 18.5x+275% | 36.6x+90% |
| Price/Sales | 13.2x | 3.1x+327% | 2.8x+366% | 19.7x-33% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.90% | 1.44% | — |
ARWR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 4 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolARWR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for ARWR are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$622M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+14.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
85.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-35.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-48.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.11
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$51M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-8.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-18.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$227M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$140M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-55.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
140M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageARWR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
FDA Approval Dependency
Arrowhead's success is heavily reliant on regulatory approvals for its drug candidates, particularly the FDA's decision on plozasiran, which has a PDUFA action date of November 18, 2025. A negative decision or delay could significantly impact investor confidence and the stock price.
High Risk
Clinical Trial Success
The company faces substantial risks regarding the successful completion of clinical trials, as even promising candidates can fail to reach the market. Setbacks or failures at any stage can have significant financial repercussions.
High Risk
Pipeline Concentration
Arrowhead's valuation is significantly tied to a few leading programs within its diverse pipeline, creating vulnerability if these drugs fail. This concentration risk could lead to a sharp decline in stock value.
High Risk
Transition to Commercial Stage
As Arrowhead transitions from a research-focused company to one with commercial aspirations, it faces significant execution risks. Successfully scaling production and establishing a sales infrastructure for its first product launches is critical.
Medium
Reliance on Milestone Payments
The company's revenue model is heavily dependent on milestone payments from collaborations, which can be inconsistent and unpredictable. This reliance poses a risk to financial stability.
Medium
Operating Losses and R&D Expenses
Arrowhead is facing substantial operating losses and increasing R&D expenses as it advances its pipeline. These financial pressures could impact the company's ability to sustain operations.
Medium
Patent Dispute
Arrowhead is involved in a high-stakes patent dispute with Ionis Pharmaceuticals over its drug plozasiran. The outcome of this dispute could have significant implications for the company's market position.
Lower
Stock Volatility
The stock is considered high-risk due to potential for significant daily price movements. This volatility can lead to unpredictable investment outcomes.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ARWR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
First Commercial Approval
Arrowhead received its first regulatory approval for plozasiran (Redemplo) for Familial Chylomicronemia Syndrome (FCS) in November 2025. This marks a significant shift from a 'show-me' pipeline to a commercial-stage entity.
Robust RNAi Platform
The company possesses a leading expertise in RNAi therapeutics, which underpins its diverse pipeline and partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies like Amgen and Sarepta.
Late-Stage Cardiometabolic Franchise
Arrowhead has a strong pipeline targeting cardiometabolic diseases, with significant catalysts expected. Notably, Phase 3 data for plozasiran in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) is anticipated in Q3 2026, which could represent a multibillion-dollar market.
Near-Term Catalysts
Beyond the sHTG data, other anticipated catalysts in 2026 include further data on ARO-INHBE/ARO-ALK7, initial volunteer data for ARO-MAPT, and early data for ARO-DIMER-PA.
Financial Strength and Capital Infusion
The company has a reinforced balance sheet, having raised over $1.3 billion in recent capital transactions. This financial stability supports its ongoing development and commercialization efforts.
Profitability and Earnings Growth
Arrowhead has shown a shift to profitability, with positive EPS reported in recent quarters, moving from prior losses. This move into profitability is seen as a positive indicator for valuation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ARWR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$77.95
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.44
+526.6% from the low
52-Week High
$79.48
-1.9% from the high
1 Month
+27.41%
3 Month
+24.44%
YTD
+15.0%
1 Year
+496.9%
3Y CAGR
+24.4%
5Y CAGR
+3.3%
10Y CAGR
+29.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ARWR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 25.6x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+0.2%
vs +8.5% median
-98% below peer median
Net Margin
-48.4%
vs -30.9% median
-57% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ARW ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $10.9B | — | +0.2% | -48.4% | Buy | +4.2% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $39.5B | 44.2x | +33.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +50.6% |
NTL NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.6B | — | +8.5% | -609.9% | Buy | +52.3% |
BEA BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $3.2B | — | -1.2% | -49.2% | Buy | +29.7% |
SRP SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.2B | 6.9x | +5.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +18.4% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.6B | — | +15.0% | -30.9% | Buy | +41.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsARWR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $81, implying +4.2% from the current price of $78.
02What is the ARWR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ARWR is $81 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (+41.1% from today), and the low-end target is $35 (-55.1%).
03Is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for ARWR is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ARWR in 2026 are: (1) FDA Approval Dependency — Arrowhead's success is heavily reliant on regulatory approvals for its drug candidates, particularly the FDA's decision on plozasiran, which has a PDUFA action date of November 18, 2025. (2) Clinical Trial Success — The company faces substantial risks regarding the successful completion of clinical trials, as even promising candidates can fail to reach the market. (3) Pipeline Concentration — Arrowhead's valuation is significantly tied to a few leading programs within its diverse pipeline, creating vulnerability if these drugs fail. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ARWR will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+0.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-4.27 (-396.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.5B in revenue.
06When does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) report its next earnings?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-1.17 and revenue of $72M. Over recent quarters, ARWR has beaten EPS estimates 17% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. generate?
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ARWR) had a free cash outflow of $51M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.2%. ARWR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).