Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IONS more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering IONS
Strong Buy
1
Buy
19
Hold
12
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$107
+39.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.7B
IONS price targets
Three scenarios for where IONS stock could go
Current
~$77
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
IONS · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Ionis Pharmaceuticals is a biotech company that discovers and develops RNA-targeted therapeutics for rare diseases and other serious conditions. It generates revenue primarily through royalties from partnered drugs like SPINRAZA for spinal muscular atrophy — which contributed over 70% of total revenue in recent years — plus milestone payments and research funding from pharmaceutical partners. Its key competitive advantage is its proprietary antisense technology platform, which enables precise targeting of disease-causing RNA and has produced multiple FDA-approved therapies.
Market Cap
$12.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
-$327M
Net Margin
-30.9%
IONS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+51.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.86/$0.27
Revenue
$452M/$132M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.61/$-1.15
Revenue
$157M/$154M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-1.41/$-1.24
Revenue
$203M/$156M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.56/$-0.85
Revenue
$246M/$196M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.86/$0.27 | +218.5% | $452M/$132M | +243.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.61/$-1.15 | +47.0% | $157M/$154M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $-1.41/$-1.24 | -14.0% | $203M/$156M | +30.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.56/$-0.85 | +34.1% | $246M/$196M | +25.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.2B
+15.0% YoY
FY2
$1.6B
+30.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.80
-41.5% YoY
FY2
$-2.92
-4.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$971M
FCF Margin: -91.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
IONS beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IONS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $837M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Commercial Member
52.1%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Commercial Member is the largest disclosed segment at 52.1% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
IONS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $36 — implies -51.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
51.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IONS
-32.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
228% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
IONS
-32.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
246% discount
vs IONS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-32.3x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Healthcare
19.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-32.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-228%
Healthcare
22.1x
-246%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Healthcare
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Healthcare
14.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Healthcare
18.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
13.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+329%
Healthcare
2.8x
+372%
5Y Avg
8.9x
+51%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Healthcare
1.40%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IONS | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg IONS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 19.0x | — |
| Trailing PE | -32.3x | 25.2x-228% | 22.1x-246% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 14.1x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 18.7x | — |
| Price/Sales | 13.5x | 3.1x+329% | 2.8x+372% | 8.9x+51% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.40% | — |
IONS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIONS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for IONS are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+47.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
98.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-33.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-30.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$971M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-91.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-12.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-10.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$372M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-58.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
165M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIONS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Clinical and Regulatory Risks
The success of drug development is highly uncertain, with clinical trials potentially failing to demonstrate safety and efficacy. This can lead to significant delays or complete failure in obtaining regulatory approval, posing a fundamental risk in the biotech sector.
High Risk
Financial Risks
Ionis aims for cash-flow breakeven by 2028, indicating a long runway before fully realizing returns from its late-stage programs. High R&D and commercial spending, along with dependence on partners, can keep earnings and cash flow under pressure.
High Risk
Commercialization and Market Adoption
Even if drugs receive approval, they may not achieve market success due to competition, pricing pressures, and reimbursement challenges. Ionis is navigating evolving reimbursement dynamics that could impact market uptake.
Medium
Manufacturing and Supply Chain
The ability to manufacture medicines at scale is crucial for Ionis. Any disruptions or challenges in manufacturing processes can significantly impact supply and commercialization efforts.
Medium
Competition
Ionis faces competition from other companies developing treatments for similar diseases, which could affect its market share and pricing power.
Medium
Intellectual Property
Protecting its intellectual property is vital for Ionis's business model. Any challenges in maintaining patent protections could jeopardize its competitive advantage.
Lower
Partner Dependence
Ionis relies on partners for certain aspects of development and commercialization, introducing a level of dependence that could impact its operational flexibility.
Lower
Global Events
Broader global events, such as health epidemics and climate change, can impact Ionis's business operations and market conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IONS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Pipeline and Product Launches
Ionis has a robust pipeline with several late-stage assets. The successful launch of Tryngroza for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS) and the upcoming launch of Donidalorsen for hereditary angioedema (HAE) are significant catalysts, with multiple other pipeline assets expected to read out or launch by 2027.
Expanding Market Reach
Ionis is strategically moving beyond rare diseases into larger markets such as severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) and other indications. This expansion, combined with favorable physician feedback and significant unmet medical needs, positions the company to capture substantial market share.
Financial Projections and Profitability
Projections indicate a move towards profitability within the next three years, with analysts forecasting strong revenue growth at an annual rate of around 26.1%. This growth, coupled with improving profit margins, is expected to drive sustained increases in revenue and operating leverage.
Partnerships and Collaborations
Ionis benefits from strategic partnerships with companies like Biogen, AstraZeneca, and Roche, which contribute to cash flow through royalties and milestones. These collaborations enhance Ionis's financial stability and support its growth initiatives.
Technological Leadership
Ionis is a leader in RNA-based therapies, leveraging its antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) technology to drive innovation in treating difficult-to-treat diseases. This technological edge positions Ionis favorably against competitors in the biotech space.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IONS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$76.85
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.66
+142.7% from the low
52-Week High
$86.74
-11.4% from the high
1 Month
+3.39%
3 Month
-11.16%
YTD
-3.5%
1 Year
+141.2%
3Y CAGR
+29.8%
5Y CAGR
+15.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IONS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 12.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+15.0%
vs +16.2% median
-7% below peer median
Net Margin
-30.9%
vs 5.6% median
-648% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.7B | — | +15.0% | -30.9% | Buy | +39.6% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $40.4B | 45.2x | +33.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +47.1% |
SRP SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.4B | 7.7x | +15.7% | 3.0% | Buy | +6.9% |
BMR BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $10.5B | 12.7x | +12.9% | 8.3% | Buy | +64.2% |
RAR RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | $2.5B | — | +16.6% | -91.0% | Buy | +98.6% |
AKR AKRO Akero Therapeutics, Inc. | $4.5B | — | — | — | Buy | -11.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsIONS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $107, implying +39.6% from the current price of $77.
02What is the IONS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IONS is $107 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $130 (+69.2% from today), and the low-end target is $87 (+13.2%).
03Is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for IONS is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IONS in 2026 are: (1) Clinical and Regulatory Risks — The success of drug development is highly uncertain, with clinical trials potentially failing to demonstrate safety and efficacy. (2) Financial Risks — Ionis aims for cash-flow breakeven by 2028, indicating a long runway before fully realizing returns from its late-stage programs. (3) Commercialization and Market Adoption — Even if drugs receive approval, they may not achieve market success due to competition, pricing pressures, and reimbursement challenges. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IONS will report consensus revenue of $1.2B (+15.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.80 (-41.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.6B in revenue.
06When does Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for IONS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. generate?
Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IONS) had a free cash outflow of $971M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 91.8%. IONS returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).