Upside case
Bull case
$350+25.8%
ALNY would need investors to value it at roughly 47x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
39 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering ALNY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
39
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$454
+63.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$167 – $350
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.1B
ALNY price targets
Three scenarios for where ALNY stock could go
Current
~$278
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $278
Bear
$167
Base
$266
Bull
$350
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$266-4.5%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ALNY — at roughly 35x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$167-39.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push ALNY down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ALNY · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics for rare genetic diseases. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved RNAi drugs — ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, OXLUMO, and others — targeting conditions like hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis, acute hepatic porphyria, and primary hyperoxaluria. The company's key advantage is its pioneering RNAi technology platform and intellectual property estate, which creates a significant barrier to entry in the RNAi therapeutics space.
Market Cap
$37.1B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$577M
Net Margin
13.5%
ALNY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+106.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$-0.54
Revenue
$774M/$663M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.90/$0.56
Revenue
$1.2B/$959M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.82/$1.16
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.51/$0.87
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$-0.54 | +158.9% | $774M/$663M | +16.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.90/$0.56 | +416.9% | $1.2B/$959M | +30.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82/$1.16 | -29.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.51/$0.87 | +73.2% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +4.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.4B
+25.1% YoY
FY2
$6.8B
+26.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.12
+22.6% YoY
FY2
$5.90
+15.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$641M
FCF Margin: 15.0%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.63
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
ALNY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ALNY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $481M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
GIVLAARI
64.1%
+20.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.8%
+174.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
GIVLAARI is the largest disclosed segment at 64.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 20.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.8%, up 174.5% YoY.
ALNY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $88 — implies -68.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
68.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALNY
119.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+388% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ALNY
119.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+440% premium
vs ALNY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
119.4x
vs
5Y Average
170.7x
30% discount
Forward PE
37.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+97%
Healthcare
18.3x
+103%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
119.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+388%
Healthcare
22.1x
+440%
5Y Avg
170.7x
-30%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
65.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+333%
Healthcare
14.2x
+364%
5Y Avg
95.4x
-31%
Price/FCF
79.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+285%
Healthcare
18.5x
+330%
5Y Avg
115.1x
-31%
Price/Sales
10.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+223%
Healthcare
2.6x
+279%
5Y Avg
18.5x
-46%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALNY | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ALNY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.1x | 18.8x+97% | 18.3x+103% | — |
| Trailing PE | 119.4x | 24.4x+388% | 22.1x+440% | 170.7x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 65.9x | 15.2x+333% | 14.2x+364% | 95.4x-31% |
| Price/FCF | 79.7x | 20.7x+285% | 18.5x+330% | 115.1x-31% |
| Price/Sales | 10.0x | 3.1x+223% | 2.6x+279% | 18.5x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
ALNY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALNY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ALNY generates $641M in free cash flow at a 15.0% margin — 33.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+82.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$641M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$379M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
98.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (33.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageALNY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Commercial execution risk
Alnylam faces challenges in the successful commercial launch of its flagship product Amvuttra, which is critical for near-term growth.
Medium
Clinical catalyst gap
The company has limited late-stage clinical catalysts in 2026, potentially slowing momentum in its pipeline.
Medium
TTR franchise concerns
There are concerns about the momentum of Alnylam's TTR franchise, which could impact revenue growth.
Lower
Financial performance scrutiny
Investors are closely monitoring Alnylam's consolidated financial results, with potential risks from underperformance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALNY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
RNAi therapeutics focus
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals specializes in RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics for genetically defined diseases, positioning it as a leader in this innovative biopharmaceutical field.
Investor resources availability
The company provides comprehensive investor resources, including financial filings, releases, and reports, facilitating informed investment decisions.
Stock analysis accessibility
Detailed stock analysis, price targets, and earnings estimates for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals are readily available, aiding investors in evaluating the stock's potential.
Latest financial information
Alnylam offers up-to-date financial information and investor toolkits, ensuring transparency and accessibility for stakeholders and analysts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALNY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$278.09
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$273.11
+1.8% from the low
52-Week High
$495.55
-43.9% from the high
1 Month
-2.86%
3 Month
-11.66%
YTD
-30.5%
1 Year
-11.0%
3Y CAGR
+11.3%
5Y CAGR
+9.5%
10Y CAGR
+17.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALNY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.1x
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+25.1%
vs +11.5% median
+118% above peer median
Net Margin
13.5%
vs -49.2% median
+127% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $37.1B | 37.1x | +25.1% | 13.5% | Buy | +63.4% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.2B | — | +8.7% | -30.9% | Buy | +47.7% |
ARW ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $11.5B | — | +17.1% | -48.4% | Buy | +2.7% |
NTL NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.8B | — | +11.5% | -597.0% | Buy | +66.8% |
BEA BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $3.5B | — | +17.1% | -49.2% | Buy | +40.6% |
MRN MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $25.4B | — | 0.0% | -143.6% | Hold | -37.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsALNY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $454, implying +63.4% from the current price of $278. The bear case scenario is $167 and the bull case is $350.
02What is the ALNY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALNY is $454 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $530 (+90.6% from today), and the low-end target is $370 (+33.1%). The base case model target is $266.
03Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALNY trades at 37.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALNY in 2026 are: (1) Commercial execution risk — Alnylam faces challenges in the successful commercial launch of its flagship product Amvuttra, which is critical for near-term growth. (2) Clinical catalyst gap — The company has limited late-stage clinical catalysts in 2026, potentially slowing momentum in its pipeline. (3) TTR franchise concerns — There are concerns about the momentum of Alnylam's TTR franchise, which could impact revenue growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALNY will report consensus revenue of $5.4B (+25.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.12 (+22.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.8B in revenue.
06When does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) report its next earnings?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.63 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, ALNY has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. generate?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) generated $641M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.0%. ALNY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).