Upside case
Bull case
$283-5.9%
The bull case prices ALNY at 42x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
39 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering ALNY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
39
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$446
+48.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $283
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
45.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $40.2B
ALNY price targets
Three scenarios for where ALNY stock could go
Current
~$301
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $301
Base
$301
Bull
$283
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$301+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing ALNY — at roughly 45x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
ALNY · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics for rare genetic diseases. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its approved RNAi drugs — ONPATTRO, GIVLAARI, OXLUMO, and others — targeting conditions like hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis, acute hepatic porphyria, and primary hyperoxaluria. The company's key advantage is its pioneering RNAi technology platform and intellectual property estate, which creates a significant barrier to entry in the RNAi therapeutics space.
Market Cap
$40.2B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$577M
Net Margin
13.5%
ALNY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+106.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.32/$-0.54
Revenue
$774M/$663M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.90/$0.56
Revenue
$1.2B/$959M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.82/$1.16
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.51/$0.90
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.32/$-0.54 | +158.9% | $774M/$663M | +16.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.90/$0.56 | +416.9% | $1.2B/$959M | +30.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.82/$1.16 | -29.3% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.51/$0.90 | +68.7% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +4.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.7B
+33.2% YoY
FY2
$7.7B
+34.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.35
+76.0% YoY
FY2
$11.78
+60.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$641M
FCF Margin: 15.0%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.50
Expected Revenue
$1.1B
ALNY beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
ALNY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $481M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
GIVLAARI
64.1%
+20.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.8%
+174.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
GIVLAARI is the largest disclosed segment at 64.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 20.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.8%, up 174.5% YoY.
ALNY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $106 — implies -64.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
64.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ALNY
129.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+415% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
ALNY
129.2x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+482% premium
vs ALNY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
129.2x
vs
5Y Average
170.7x
24% discount
Forward PE
45.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+136%
Healthcare
18.8x
+139%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
129.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
+415%
Healthcare
22.2x
+482%
5Y Avg
170.7x
-24%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
71.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+369%
Healthcare
14.0x
+409%
5Y Avg
95.4x
-25%
Price/FCF
86.3x
S&P 500
21.1x
+309%
Healthcare
18.6x
+365%
5Y Avg
115.1x
-25%
Price/Sales
10.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+246%
Healthcare
2.8x
+286%
5Y Avg
18.5x
-42%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.42%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ALNY | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg ALNY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 45.0x | 19.1x+136% | 18.8x+139% | — |
| Trailing PE | 129.2x | 25.1x+415% | 22.2x+482% | 170.7x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 71.4x | 15.2x+369% | 14.0x+409% | 95.4x-25% |
| Price/FCF | 86.3x | 21.1x+309% | 18.6x+365% | 115.1x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 10.8x | 3.1x+246% | 2.8x+286% | 18.5x-42% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.42% | — |
ALNY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolALNY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
ALNY generates $641M in free cash flow at a 15.0% margin — 33.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+82.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.18
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$641M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.7B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$379M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
98.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (33.4%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageALNY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Market Volatility
Alnylam’s stock has historically suffered steep drawdowns during systemic shocks, averaging a 35% decline during Growth & Demand Scare events and 25% across 15 major shocks versus the S&P 500’s 16%. Notable downturns include the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, 2020 COVID‑19 crash, and 2015‑16 China Devaluation/Global Growth Scare, indicating high sensitivity to macro‑economic turbulence.
High Risk
Regulatory & Pricing Risks
The company is exposed to U.S. government pricing programs such as the 340B Drug Pricing Program. Failure to meet complex, frequently changing requirements could trigger substantial fines, penalties, and sanctions, jeopardizing financial stability and eroding margins.
High Risk
Competitive & Pipeline Uncertainty
Alnylam faces fierce competition from larger pharma with monoclonal antibodies, gene therapies, and small‑molecule drugs. Manufacturing RNAi medicines is scientifically complex and costly, and the TTR franchise has limited late‑stage catalysts expected in 2026, raising the risk of revenue erosion if Phase I studies fail.
Medium
Revenue & Margin Pressures
Analysts warn of sequential revenue declines and diminishing growth prospects, with management forecasting lower Q1 2026 growth versus Q4 2025. Gross margins have modestly declined due to royalty escalations and anticipated net price reductions for Amvuttra, while collaboration revenue is expected to drop in 2026 without a non‑recurring milestone payment.
Medium
Valuation & Analyst Sentiment
While some analysts maintain a Buy consensus, a significant portion recommend Hold or Sell, citing a weak risk/reward profile and concerns about operational efficiency. The stock trades below its estimated fair value, but this is offset by the overall risk profile.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ALNY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Revenue Growth
Alnylam is projected to generate nearly $2.99 billion in combined net product revenues in 2025, an 81% year‑over‑year increase. The Rare franchise alone contributed about $500 million, with key products Givlaari and Oxlumo driving steady double‑digit growth.
Expanding RNAi Pipeline
The company is scaling its ATTR‑CM programs and advancing a broader RNAi pipeline into high‑prevalence indications. R&D and SG&A expenses are rising to support these efforts, positioning Alnylam for future product opportunities and higher profitability.
Strong Market Position
Alnylam’s TTR franchise has shown robust growth and outperformed rivals, with Amvuttra remaining the only therapy with proven superior efficacy. The firm also benefits from a large pool of underdiagnosed patients, creating a long‑term growth runway.
Healthy Financials
The company maintains healthy gross margins and expanding operating leverage, while its return on equity exceeds 69%, reflecting effective management and profitability.
Positive Analyst Consensus
A majority of analysts covering Alnylam hold a positive outlook, with consensus ratings of "Buy" or "Strong Buy".
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ALNY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$301.11
52W Range Position
22%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$245.96
+22.4% from the low
52-Week High
$495.55
-39.2% from the high
1 Month
-8.85%
3 Month
-9.10%
YTD
-24.8%
1 Year
+10.1%
3Y CAGR
+12.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.8%
10Y CAGR
+17.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ALNY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
45.0x
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+33.2%
vs +0.2% median
+15645% above peer median
Net Margin
13.5%
vs -44.1% median
+131% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $40.2B | 45.0x | +33.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +48.0% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.4B | — | +15.0% | -30.9% | Buy | +42.6% |
ARW ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $10.5B | — | +0.2% | 18.5% | Buy | +8.4% |
NTL NTLA Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +8.5% | — | Buy | +56.9% |
BEA BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $3.0B | — | -1.2% | -57.2% | Buy | +41.3% |
MRN MRNA Moderna, Inc. | $18.5B | — | -17.9% | -143.6% | Hold | -22.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsALNY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $446, implying +48.0% from the current price of $301.
02What is the ALNY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ALNY is $446 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $530 (+76.0% from today), and the low-end target is $351 (+16.6%). The base case model target is $301.
03Is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock overvalued in 2026?
ALNY trades at 45.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ALNY in 2026 are: (1) Market Volatility — Alnylam’s stock has historically suffered steep drawdowns during systemic shocks, averaging a 35% decline during Growth & Demand Scare events and 25% across 15 major shocks versus the S&P 500’s 16%. (2) Regulatory & Pricing Risks — The company is exposed to U. (3) Competitive & Pipeline Uncertainty — Alnylam faces fierce competition from larger pharma with monoclonal antibodies, gene therapies, and small‑molecule drugs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ALNY will report consensus revenue of $5.7B (+33.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.35 (+76.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $7.7B in revenue.
06When does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) report its next earnings?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.50 and revenue of $1.1B. Over recent quarters, ALNY has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. generate?
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALNY) generated $641M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.0%. ALNY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).