Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing BBAI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
4
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering BBAI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$6
+44.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.6B
BBAI price targets
Three scenarios for where BBAI stock could go
Current
~$4
Confidence
22 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI · NYSETechnologyInformation Technology ServicesDecember year-end
BigBear.ai is an artificial intelligence and machine learning company that provides decision support solutions to government and commercial clients. It generates revenue through two main segments: Cyber & Engineering services (roughly 60% of revenue) and Analytics services (roughly 40%), both delivering high-end technology and consulting. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in national security and defense applications—particularly in cybersecurity and predictive analytics—where its AI solutions help clients aggregate and interpret complex data for real-time decision-making.
Market Cap
$19.6B
Revenue TTM
$127M
Net Income TTM
-$289M
Net Margin
-226.7%
BBAI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
8%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-29.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$-0.06
Revenue
$35M/$36M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.06/$-0.07
Revenue
$32M/$40M
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.07/$-0.06
Revenue
$33M/$33M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.04/$-0.05
Revenue
$27M/$33M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.10/$-0.06 | -66.7% | $35M/$36M | -4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.06/$-0.07 | +14.3% | $32M/$40M | -19.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.07/$-0.06 | -16.7% | $33M/$33M | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.04/$-0.05 | +20.0% | $27M/$33M | -18.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$119M
-6.9% YoY
FY2
$111M
-6.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.06
+30.0% YoY
FY2
$-0.07
-15.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$56M
FCF Margin: -44.3%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.06
Expected Revenue
$34M
BBAI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
BBAI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $158M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reportable Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Reportable Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
BBAI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $0 — implies -92.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
92.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BBAI
-5.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
120% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
BBAI
-5.0x
vs
Technology
26.7x
119% discount
vs BBAI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Technology
22.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-120%
Technology
26.7x
-119%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Technology
1.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Technology
17.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Technology
19.5x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
153.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+4807%
Technology
2.4x
+6179%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+4499%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BBAI | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg BBAI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 22.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.0x | 25.1x-120% | 26.7x-119% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 17.5x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 19.5x | — |
| Price/Sales | 153.4x | 3.1x+4807% | 2.4x+6179% | 3.3x+4499% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
BBAI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBBAI Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for BBAI are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$127M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-20.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-68.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-226.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.06
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$56M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-44.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-19.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-35.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$87M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$63M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-50.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
4.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBBAI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Stock Volatility
BBAI's stock price has historically experienced significant volatility, with heightened sensitivity to overall market conditions. This volatility can lead to dramatic price swings, impacting investor sentiment and financial performance.
High Risk
Reliance on Government Contracts
The company's strong dependence on federal contracts exposes it to vulnerabilities from potential defense budget cuts or policy changes. A decrease in government AI expenditures could significantly affect BBAI's financial results, leading to revenue fluctuations.
High Risk
Financial Challenges
BigBear.ai has faced significant financial difficulties, with losses growing to $296 million in 2024, a substantial increase from the prior year. Additionally, the company has had to restate financial results due to accounting irregularities, revealing material weaknesses in its internal controls.
Medium
Execution Concerns and Revenue Stagnation
There are doubts about BBAI's execution capabilities due to ongoing revenue stagnation, with only a 2% rise in revenue projected for 2024 compared to 2023. This raises concerns about the company's competitiveness in a favorable AI and defense spending climate.
Medium
Legal and Regulatory Risks
BBAI is facing securities class action lawsuits related to its financial disclosures and internal controls. Regulatory challenges in the AI and data analytics space could also pose risks to the company's operations and reputation.
Lower
Competition and Technological Change
BigBear.ai operates in a highly competitive AI and analytics market, requiring constant innovation to keep pace with rapid technological changes. Failure to adapt could impact the company's market position and growth prospects.
Lower
Cybersecurity and Data Privacy
Concerns regarding cybersecurity and data privacy are present, which could affect BBAI's operations and customer trust. Any significant breaches could lead to financial losses and reputational damage.
Lower
Dilution Risk
The potential issuance of new shares, such as through the conversion of convertible notes or the sale of new shares for cash, could lead to dilution for existing stockholders. This may negatively impact shareholder value.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BBAI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Significant Government Contracts
BigBear.ai has secured a five-year Army GFIM production contract valued at $165.15 million, showcasing its strong foothold in the defense sector. This contract is part of a broader pipeline of defense-related work that positions the company for sustained revenue growth.
Acquisition of Ask Sage
The recent acquisition of Ask Sage is expected to enhance BigBear.ai's software-led growth, tapping into recurring revenue potential. This acquisition supports over 100,000 users across government and commercial organizations, indicating a robust market presence.
Strong Cash Reserves
BigBear.ai's strong cash reserves provide a solid foundation for future investments and growth initiatives. Analysts are moderately bullish, with expectations that these reserves will facilitate the scaling of operations and mitigate revenue volatility.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BBAI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$4.14
52W Range Position
18%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$2.96
+39.9% from the low
52-Week High
$9.39
-55.9% from the high
1 Month
+17.95%
3 Month
+1.47%
YTD
-29.1%
1 Year
+29.0%
3Y CAGR
+14.7%
5Y CAGR
-15.6%
10Y CAGR
-8.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BBAI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 91.3x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
-6.9%
vs +19.2% median
-136% below peer median
Net Margin
-226.7%
vs -7.4% median
-2964% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BBA BBAI BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. | $19.6B | — | -6.9% | -226.7% | Hold | +44.9% |
PLT PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $311.4B | 106.2x | +32.8% | 43.7% | Hold | +43.1% |
KTO KTOS Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. | $10.0B | 76.5x | +19.2% | 1.6% | Buy | +86.4% |
SPI SPIR Spire Global, Inc. | $541.0B | — | -9.9% | -34960.3% | Buy | +4.8% |
AIO AIOT PowerFleet, Inc. | $453M | — | +33.5% | -7.4% | Buy | +140.2% |
GOV GOVX GeoVax Labs, Inc. | $1M | — | -37.1% | -862.3% | — | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsBBAI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $6, implying +44.9% from the current price of $4.
02What is the BBAI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BBAI is $6 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $6 (+44.9% from today), and the low-end target is $6 (+44.9%).
03Is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for BBAI is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BBAI in 2026 are: (1) Stock Volatility — BBAI's stock price has historically experienced significant volatility, with heightened sensitivity to overall market conditions. (2) Reliance on Government Contracts — The company's strong dependence on federal contracts exposes it to vulnerabilities from potential defense budget cuts or policy changes. (3) Financial Challenges — BigBear. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BBAI will report consensus revenue of $119M (-6.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.06 (+30.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $111M in revenue.
06When does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) report its next earnings?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.06 and revenue of $34M. Over recent quarters, BBAI has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. generate?
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) had a free cash outflow of $56M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 44.3%. BBAI returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).