Upside case
Bull case
$182+36.4%
PLTR would need investors to value it at roughly 143x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 105x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
10 bullish · 4 bearish · 26 covering PLTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
12
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$195
+45.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $182
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
104.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $306.6B
PLTR price targets
Three scenarios for where PLTR stock could go
Current
~$134
Confidence
63 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $134
Base
$134
Bull
$182
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$134+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PLTR — at roughly 105x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Palantir Technologies builds and operates advanced data analytics platforms that help government agencies and large enterprises integrate, analyze, and act on complex data. It generates revenue primarily through government contracts—particularly with defense and intelligence agencies—and commercial enterprise software subscriptions, with government work historically representing the majority of its business. The company's key advantage lies in its deep expertise in handling sensitive, classified data and its proprietary software platforms that have been battle-tested in national security applications for nearly two decades.
Market Cap
$306.6B
Revenue TTM
$5.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
43.7%
PLTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.14
Revenue
$1.0B/$938M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.17
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.23
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.28
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.16/$0.14 | +15.8% | $1.0B/$938M | +7.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.21/$0.17 | +25.1% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.23 | +8.6% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +4.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.33/$0.28 | +19.0% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +5.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.9B
+32.8% YoY
FY2
$9.2B
+32.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.27
+42.7% YoY
FY2
$1.69
+33.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 51.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PLTR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PLTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Government Operating Segment
53.7%
+53.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Geographic Concentration Risk
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Government Operating Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 53.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 53.1% YoY.
Geographic Concentration Risk is the largest reported region at 50.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PLTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $62 — implies -56.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
56.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PLTR
212.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+742% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
PLTR
212.4x
vs
Technology
27.5x
+673% premium
vs PLTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
212.4x
vs
5Y Average
188.1x
+13% premium
Forward PE
104.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+449%
Technology
21.7x
+382%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
212.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+742%
Technology
27.5x
+673%
5Y Avg
188.1x
+13%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
212.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1290%
Technology
17.4x
+1121%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
145.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+584%
Technology
19.8x
+637%
5Y Avg
100.0x
+46%
Price/Sales
68.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2087%
Technology
2.4x
+2738%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+334%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PLTR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg PLTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 104.6x | 19.1x+449% | 21.7x+382% | — |
| Trailing PE | 212.4x | 25.2x+742% | 27.5x+673% | 188.1x+13% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 212.0x | 15.3x+1290% | 17.4x+1121% | — |
| Price/FCF | 145.9x | 21.3x+584% | 19.8x+637% | 100.0x+46% |
| Price/Sales | 68.5x | 3.1x+2087% | 2.4x+2738% | 15.8x+334% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
PLTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPLTR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PLTR generates $2.7B in free cash flow at a 51.5% margin — 22.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+67.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
84.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
38.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
43.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
51.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$75M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePLTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Excessive Valuation & Growth Pressure
Palantir trades at P/E >100x and P/S 40‑80x, far above industry averages. It requires 60‑70% YoY revenue growth to justify the premium; any miss in guidance could trigger material repricing.
High Risk
Government Contract Concentration
Over 55% of Palantir’s revenue comes from U.S. government contracts. Loss or repricing of key contracts, or political shifts such as D.O.G.E. initiatives, could sharply reduce top line.
High Risk
Intensifying Competition & IP Risk
Competitors like other AI firms offer cheaper, more accessible solutions. Legal actions against ex‑employees and potential IP loss could erode pricing power and market share.
Medium
Regulatory & Geopolitical Scrutiny
UK NHS data‑privacy investigations and European sovereign AI frameworks may limit commercial expansion. Geopolitical tensions could cap defense revenue growth.
Medium
AI Agent Disruption
Advances in autonomous AI agents could reduce reliance on third‑party platforms like Palantir, compressing margins and slowing adoption.
Lower
Shareholder Dilution & Tax Credit Loss
Future equity issuances could dilute Class A voting power, and the company may not fully utilize net operating loss carryforwards, impacting future profitability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PLTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Accelerating Revenue Growth
Palantir’s Q4 2025 revenue hit $1.41 billion, up 70% year‑over‑year. The company projects U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.144 billion in 2026, a growth of at least 115%, and overall revenue growth of 61% to roughly $7.2 billion.
Expanding Commercial Business
U.S. commercial revenue surged 137% year‑over‑year in Q4 2025, driven by rapid adoption of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). This acceleration signals strong demand from private sector customers.
Strong Financials & Capital Efficiency
Palantir holds $7.2 billion in cash with no debt and generated $2.27 billion in free cash flow in FY2025, a 51% margin. Free cash flow consistently outpaces net income, underscoring a capital‑light, scalable model.
AI Platform Traction
The AIP is gaining significant traction with large enterprises and the U.S. government, supported by numerous bootcamps that ensure operational onboarding and user engagement.
Government Demand
Government revenue grew 66% year‑over‑year in Q4 2025, and Palantir secured a $448 million U.S. Navy ShipOS contract. Geopolitical tensions are expected to boost defense spending, further supporting demand.
Operating System Potential
Analysts see Palantir evolving into the central governing system for enterprise AI, embedding its platforms deeply within organizations. This would lock in long contracts, expand usage, and create high switching costs.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PLTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$133.79
52W Range Position
28%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$105.32
+27.0% from the low
52-Week High
$207.52
-35.5% from the high
1 Month
-9.56%
3 Month
-1.55%
YTD
-20.3%
1 Year
+22.9%
3Y CAGR
+158.6%
5Y CAGR
+46.1%
10Y CAGR
+30.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PLTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
104.6x
vs 72.5x median
+44% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+32.8%
vs +20.5% median
+60% above peer median
Net Margin
43.7%
vs -28.4% median
+254% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLT PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $306.6B | 104.6x | +32.8% | 43.7% | Hold | +45.4% |
SNO SNOW Snowflake Inc. | $47.9B | 78.0x | +29.1% | -28.4% | Buy | +68.0% |
MDB MDB MongoDB, Inc. | $21.6B | 45.0x | +20.5% | -2.9% | Buy | +55.8% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $46.8B | 67.0x | +23.6% | 3.1% | Buy | +21.5% |
S S SentinelOne, Inc. | $4.8B | 80.7x | +17.7% | -45.0% | Buy | +21.9% |
AI AI C3.ai, Inc. | $1.3B | — | +9.2% | -141.4% | Hold | -22.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PLTR Dividend and Capital Return
PLTR does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$75M
Estimated Shares Retired
560.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.3B
FAQ
7 questionsPLTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $195, implying +45.4% from the current price of $134.
02What is the PLTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PLTR is $195 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+71.9% from today), and the low-end target is $151 (+12.9%). The base case model target is $134.
03Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PLTR trades at 104.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PLTR in 2026 are: (1) Excessive Valuation & Growth Pressure — Palantir trades at P/E >100x and P/S 40‑80x, far above industry averages. (2) Government Contract Concentration — Over 55% of Palantir’s revenue comes from U. (3) Intensifying Competition & IP Risk — Competitors like other AI firms offer cheaper, more accessible solutions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Palantir Technologies Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PLTR will report consensus revenue of $6.9B (+32.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.27 (+42.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.2B in revenue.
06When does Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PLTR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Palantir Technologies Inc. generate?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 51.5%. PLTR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($75M TTM).