Upside case
Bull case
$81-37.0%
The bull case prices PLTR at 56x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
11 bullish · 3 bearish · 26 covering PLTR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
12
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$189
+47.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$39 – $81
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
88.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $294.4B
PLTR price targets
Three scenarios for where PLTR stock could go
Current
~$128
Confidence
70 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $128
Bear
$39
Base
$61
Bull
$81
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$61-52.2%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$39-69.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 62x multiple contraction could push PLTR down roughly 70% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Palantir Technologies Inc.
PLTR · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Palantir Technologies builds and operates advanced data analytics platforms that help government agencies and large enterprises integrate, analyze, and act on complex data. It generates revenue primarily through government contracts—particularly with defense and intelligence agencies—and commercial enterprise software subscriptions, with government work historically representing the majority of its business. The company's key advantage lies in its deep expertise in handling sensitive, classified data and its proprietary software platforms that have been battle-tested in national security applications for nearly two decades.
Market Cap
$294.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.3B
Net Margin
43.7%
PLTR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+12.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.14
Revenue
$1.0B/$938M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.17
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.25/$0.23
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.28
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.16/$0.14 | +15.8% | $1.0B/$938M | +7.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.21/$0.17 | +25.1% | $1.2B/$1.1B | +8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.25/$0.23 | +8.6% | $1.4B/$1.3B | +4.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.33/$0.28 | +19.0% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +5.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.5B
+23.5% YoY
FY2
$8.0B
+23.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.19
+34.6% YoY
FY2
$1.37
+14.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 51.5%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.35
Expected Revenue
$1.8B
PLTR beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
PLTR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Government Operating Segment
53.7%
+53.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Geographic Concentration Risk
50.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Government Operating Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 53.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 53.1% YoY.
Geographic Concentration Risk is the largest reported region at 50.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PLTR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $109 — implies -15.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PLTR
203.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+734% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
PLTR
203.9x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+603% premium
vs PLTR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
203.9x
vs
5Y Average
188.1x
+8% premium
Forward PE
88.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
+368%
Technology
22.3x
+296%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
203.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
+734%
Technology
29.0x
+603%
5Y Avg
188.1x
+8%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
203.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1238%
Technology
16.6x
+1125%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
140.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+577%
Technology
19.2x
+630%
5Y Avg
100.0x
+40%
Price/Sales
65.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2027%
Technology
2.4x
+2598%
5Y Avg
15.8x
+316%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PLTR | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg PLTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 88.1x | 18.8x+368% | 22.3x+296% | — |
| Trailing PE | 203.9x | 24.4x+734% | 29.0x+603% | 188.1x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 203.6x | 15.2x+1238% | 16.6x+1125% | — |
| Price/FCF | 140.1x | 20.7x+577% | 19.2x+630% | 100.0x+40% |
| Price/Sales | 65.8x | 3.1x+2027% | 2.4x+2598% | 15.8x+316% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
PLTR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPLTR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PLTR generates $2.7B in free cash flow at a 51.5% margin — 22.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+67.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
84.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
38.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
43.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.89
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
51.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
26.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$75M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePLTR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Stretched valuation
Palantir trades at over 115x price-sales and nearly 150x forward P/E, raising concerns about sustainability.
High Risk
AI disruption risk
PLTR faces heightened risk from AI agent disruption and the Anthropic fallout impacting its government business.
Medium
Macro headwinds
Macroeconomic challenges are driving sector-wide pressures, potentially affecting Palantir's growth trajectory.
Medium
Growth sustainability
Despite strong revenue growth (70% in Q4 2025), maintaining high growth rates (61% guidance for 2026) may be challenging.
Lower
Undervaluation concerns
Simply Wall St assigns Palantir a valuation score of 1/6, indicating it screens as undervalued on only one metric.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PLTR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Mission-critical software solutions
Palantir's software powers real-time decision-making in critical government and commercial enterprises, delivering mission-critical outcomes across various sectors.
AI and analytics leadership
Palantir leverages artificial intelligence and analytics to drive efficiency and automated decision-making for its clients, positioning it as a leader in data integration.
Strong commercial and government clientele
The firm serves both commercial and government sectors, providing robust and scalable solutions that cater to a wide range of organizational needs.
User-friendly data experience
Palantir focuses on creating an intuitive user experience for working with data, enabling users to ask and answer complex questions without technical expertise.
Long-term AI infrastructure bet
Palantir is positioned as a high-variance AI infrastructure play, where narrative and execution will be key drivers of growth over the next decade.
Contrarian growth potential
Despite high valuation concerns, some investors see Palantir's role in AI and energy infrastructure as a catalyst for future growth, strengthening their conviction.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PLTR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$128.47
52W Range Position
7%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$122.68
+4.7% from the low
52-Week High
$207.52
-38.1% from the high
1 Month
-4.89%
3 Month
-15.91%
YTD
-23.5%
1 Year
-8.2%
3Y CAGR
+101.1%
5Y CAGR
+38.3%
10Y CAGR
+29.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PLTR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
88.1x
vs 85.5x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+23.5%
vs +15.7% median
+50% above peer median
Net Margin
43.7%
vs -23.8% median
+284% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PLT PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $294.4B | 88.1x | +23.5% | 43.7% | Hold | +47.3% |
SNO SNOW Snowflake Inc. | $80.5B | 120.5x | +19.7% | -23.8% | Buy | +21.5% |
MDB MDB MongoDB, Inc. | $26.8B | 54.4x | +15.7% | -1.1% | Buy | +22.9% |
DDO DDOG Datadog, Inc. | $79.4B | 91.9x | +18.2% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.7% |
S S SentinelOne, Inc. | $5.1B | 79.1x | +9.2% | -30.4% | Buy | +26.3% |
AI AI C3.ai, Inc. | $1.5B | — | +0.0% | -187.9% | Hold | -19.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PLTR Dividend and Capital Return
PLTR does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$75M
Estimated Shares Retired
583.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.3B
FAQ
7 questionsPLTR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $189, implying +47.3% from the current price of $128. The bear case scenario is $39 and the bull case is $81.
02What is the PLTR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PLTR is $189 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $230 (+79.0% from today), and the low-end target is $138 (+7.4%). The base case model target is $61.
03Is Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PLTR trades at 88.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PLTR in 2026 are: (1) Stretched valuation — Palantir trades at over 115x price-sales and nearly 150x forward P/E, raising concerns about sustainability. (2) AI disruption risk — PLTR faces heightened risk from AI agent disruption and the Anthropic fallout impacting its government business. (3) Macro headwinds — Macroeconomic challenges are driving sector-wide pressures, potentially affecting Palantir's growth trajectory. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Palantir Technologies Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PLTR will report consensus revenue of $6.5B (+23.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.19 (+34.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.0B in revenue.
06When does Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) report its next earnings?
Palantir Technologies Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $0.35 and revenue of $1.8B. Over recent quarters, PLTR has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Palantir Technologies Inc. generate?
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 51.5%. PLTR returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($75M TTM).