Upside case
Bull case
$41+53.5%
BF-B would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
36
analysts
6 bullish · 7 bearish · 36 covering BF-B
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
23
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$20 – $41
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
36
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.4B
BF-B price targets
Three scenarios for where BF-B stock could go
Current
~$27
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $27
Bear
$20
Base
$31
Bull
$41
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$31+16.5%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$20-26.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push BF-B down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Brown-Forman Corporation
BF-B · NYSEConsumer DefensiveBeverages - Wineries & DistilleriesApril year-end
Brown-Forman is a premium spirits company that produces and markets iconic alcoholic beverage brands like Jack Daniel's whiskey. It generates revenue primarily through the sale of its spirits portfolio—with Jack Daniel's representing over half of sales—and also earns income from barrel sales and contract bottling services. The company's moat lies in its century-old brand equity, particularly the globally recognized Jack Daniel's trademark, which commands pricing power and consumer loyalty.
Market Cap
$12.4B
Revenue TTM
$3.9B
Net Income TTM
$715M
Net Margin
18.2%
BF-B Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-3.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.36/$0.47
Revenue
$924M/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.47/$0.47
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.47
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.12/$0.31
Revenue
$912M/$885M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.36/$0.47 | -24.3% | $924M/$1.0B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.47/$0.47 | +1.5% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$0.47 | +24.5% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +5.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.12/$0.31 | -61.2% | $912M/$885M | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
+0.6% YoY
FY2
$4.0B
+1.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.69
+8.6% YoY
FY2
$1.76
+4.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$893M
FCF Margin: 22.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BF-B beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
BF-B Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Whiskey
71.1%
-0.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
44.4%
-6.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Whiskey is the largest disclosed segment at 71.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 0.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 44.4%, down 6.6% YoY.
BF-B Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $28 — implies +4.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BF-B
17.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
29% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
BF-B
17.4x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
8% discount
vs BF-B 5Y Avg P/E
Today
17.4x
vs
5Y Average
27.3x
36% discount
Forward PE
15.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-17%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
17.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-29%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
-8%
5Y Avg
27.3x
-36%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-15%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+16%
5Y Avg
20.5x
-37%
Price/FCF
13.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
-9%
5Y Avg
43.1x
-68%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+259%
5Y Avg
5.7x
-44%
Dividend Yield
3.43%
S&P 500
1.91%
+79%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+12%
5Y Avg
2.33%
+48%
| Metric | BF-B | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg BF-B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.7x | 18.8x-17% | 14.2x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 17.4x | 24.4x-29% | 18.9x | 27.3x-36% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.2x-15% | 11.1x+16% | 20.5x-37% |
| Price/FCF | 13.9x | 20.7x-33% | 15.3x | 43.1x-68% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 0.9x+259% | 5.7x-44% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.43% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.33% |
BF-B trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBF-B Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BF-B generates $893M in free cash flow at a 22.7% margin — 13.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
60.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$893M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$308M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
~2.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$400M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
59.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
466M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBF-B Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings report risks
Brown-Forman disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant challenges.
Medium
Investment analysis uncertainty
Detailed stock analysis and price target predictions suggest potential volatility and uncertainty in Brown-Forman's performance.
Lower
Market sentiment risk
Mixed analyst opinions and stock forecasts could lead to fluctuating investor sentiment around Brown-Forman.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BF-B Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong fiscal performance
Brown-Forman reported solid fiscal fourth-quarter results with net sales of US$912 million and full-year sales of US$3.93 billion, indicating robust financial health.
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) have been highlighted by analysts, suggesting positive sentiment and potential upside.
Premium spirits demand
The company's diversification in premium spirits positions it well, though there is a noted risk if demand slows more broadly.
Reiterated guidance
Management reiterated fiscal 2026 guidance, providing clarity and confidence in their outlook despite expected low-single-digit declines in organic net sales and operating income.
Tequila market potential
Brown-Forman's exposure to the tequila market offers growth opportunities, though prolonged pressure in this segment could pose risks.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BF-B Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.64
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.61
+17.8% from the low
52-Week High
$31.92
-16.5% from the high
1 Month
+1.49%
3 Month
+16.13%
YTD
+1.9%
1 Year
+3.9%
3Y CAGR
-25.7%
5Y CAGR
-18.3%
10Y CAGR
-3.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BF-B vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.7x
vs 14.6x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.6%
vs +2.7% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
18.2%
vs 10.5% median
+74% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BF- BF-B Brown-Forman Corporation | $12.4B | 15.7x | +0.6% | 18.2% | Hold | — |
DEO DEO Diageo plc | $44.7B | 17.1x | +2.7% | 14.7% | Hold | +38.6% |
BUD BUD Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV | $138.9B | 18.4x | +2.7% | 10.5% | Buy | +10.2% |
STZ STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. | $24.5B | 12.0x | +3.9% | 11.8% | Buy | +26.2% |
BEA BEAM Beam Therapeutics Inc. | $3.5B | — | +17.1% | -49.2% | Buy | +40.6% |
MGP MGPI MGP Ingredients, Inc. | $351M | 10.3x | 0.0% | -46.0% | Buy | +76.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BF-B Dividend and Capital Return
BF-B returns 6.7% total yield, led by a 3.43% dividend, raised 41 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.2%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
3.43%
Payout Ratio
59.7%
How BF-B Splits Its Return
Div 3.43%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 3.43%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
41Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.8%
5Y Div CAGR
5.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$400M
Estimated Shares Retired
15M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
466M
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.46 | — | 3.3% | 6.9% |
| 2025 | $0.91 | +3.6% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +5.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $0.83 | +8.2% | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | $0.77 | -55.4% | 0.0% | 2.6% |
FAQ
6 questionsBF-B Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 36 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $20 and the bull case is $41.
02Is Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) stock overvalued in 2026?
BF-B trades at 15.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BF-B in 2026 are: (1) Earnings report risks — Brown-Forman disclosed 24 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, indicating significant challenges. (2) Investment analysis uncertainty — Detailed stock analysis and price target predictions suggest potential volatility and uncertainty in Brown-Forman's performance. (3) Market sentiment risk — Mixed analyst opinions and stock forecasts could lead to fluctuating investor sentiment around Brown-Forman. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Brown-Forman Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BF-B will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (+0.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.69 (+8.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.0B in revenue.
05When does Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BF-B is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Brown-Forman Corporation generate?
Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B) generated $893M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.7%. BF-B returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.4% yield) and share repurchases ($400M TTM).