Upside case
Bull case
$169+91.9%
BHP would need investors to value it at roughly 33x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
7 bullish · 5 bearish · 31 covering BHP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
19
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$72
-18.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$81 – $169
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $223.1B
BHP price targets
Three scenarios for where BHP stock could go
Current
~$88
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $88
Bear
$81
Base
$128
Bull
$169
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$128+45.7%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$81-8.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push BHP down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BHP Group Limited
BHP · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsJune year-end
BHP Group is a global diversified mining company that extracts and sells essential commodities like iron ore, copper, and coal. It generates revenue primarily from selling these mined resources—with iron ore contributing roughly half of earnings, copper about a quarter, and coal making up most of the remainder. Its key advantage is owning and operating some of the world's largest, lowest-cost, and longest-life mining assets, which creates a significant scale and cost moat.
Market Cap
$223.1B
Revenue TTM
$107.6B
Net Income TTM
$21.6B
Net Margin
20.1%
BHP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$2.75/$2.75
Revenue
$28.4B/$28.5B
Q1 2025
EPS
$1.74/$1.98
Revenue
$25.2B/$25.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.12/$2.09
Revenue
$26.0B/$26.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.24/$2.41
Revenue
$27.9B/$27.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $2.75/$2.75 | +0.0% | $28.4B/$28.5B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74/$1.98 | -12.1% | $25.2B/$25.0B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.12/$2.09 | +1.4% | $26.0B/$26.0B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.24/$2.41 | -7.1% | $27.9B/$27.3B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$101.8B
-5.4% YoY
FY2
$96.8B
-5.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.52
-11.6% YoY
FY2
$7.11
-5.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$20.9B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
August 17, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.74
Expected Revenue
$30.1B
BHP beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
BHP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $47.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
66.9%
-7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 66.9%, down 7.7% YoY.
BHP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $120 — implies +36.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BHP
24.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
In line with benchmark
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
BHP
24.7x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
In line with benchmark
vs BHP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.7x
vs
5Y Average
13.0x
+90% premium
Forward PE
17.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-10%
Basic Materials
14.9x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1%
Basic Materials
23.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+90%
PEG Ratio
8.80x
S&P 500
1.66x
+430%
Basic Materials
1.23x
+616%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-36%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-12%
5Y Avg
5.5x
+75%
Price/FCF
24.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+16%
Basic Materials
29.0x
-17%
5Y Avg
10.3x
+133%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+41%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+131%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+69%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
S&P 500
1.91%
+50%
Basic Materials
1.41%
+104%
5Y Avg
7.32%
-61%
| Metric | BHP | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg BHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.0x | 18.8x | 14.9x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.7x | 24.4x | 23.6x | 13.0x+90% |
| PEG Ratio | 8.80x | 1.66x+430% | 1.23x+616% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7x | 15.2x-36% | 11.0x-12% | 5.5x+75% |
| Price/FCF | 24.0x | 20.7x+16% | 29.0x-17% | 10.3x+133% |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+41% | 1.9x+131% | 2.6x+69% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 7.32% |
BHP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBHP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
BHP generates $20.9B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 24.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$107.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
82.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
41.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$20.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
70.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBHP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Global economic slowdown
Macroeconomic risks include the potential for a global economic slowdown, particularly given the interconnected nature of Australian markets with global trade and commodity cycles.
High Risk
Overvaluation risk
The stock is currently overvalued by 68% based on DCF analysis, indicating potential downside risk if the market corrects.
Medium
Revenue decline
Revenue growth is forecasted to decline by 5.4% in the next fiscal year, signaling potential operational or demand challenges.
Medium
Commodity cycle exposure
As a leading producer of iron ore and copper, BHP is highly exposed to volatile commodity price cycles.
Lower
Operational execution risk
With operations spanning multiple regions, execution risks such as supply chain disruptions or labor issues could impact performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BHP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Market leadership in resources
BHP is the world's largest mining company by market capitalization and a leading producer of iron ore, copper, and metallurgical coal.
Strong financial performance
BHP provides robust financial reports, operational reviews, and consistent dividends, making it attractive to investors.
Diversified commodity exposure
BHP's portfolio spans iron ore, copper, and other critical resources, positioning it to benefit from multiple commodity cycles.
Long-term growth outlook
Analysts highlight BHP's potential for growth through 2026-2031, driven by its operational efficiency and commodity demand.
Macroeconomic tailwinds
BHP is well-positioned to capitalize on global demand for resources, particularly in infrastructure and energy transition sectors.
Dividend yield appeal
BHP's dividend yield and shareholder returns are key attractions for income-focused investors.
Operational scale and efficiency
With over 39,000 employees and contractors, BHP leverages its scale to maintain cost leadership and operational excellence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BHP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.87
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$45.74
+92.1% from the low
52-Week High
$93.83
-6.4% from the high
1 Month
+4.58%
3 Month
+28.65%
YTD
+42.3%
1 Year
+84.5%
3Y CAGR
+12.1%
5Y CAGR
+7.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BHP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.0x
vs 18.6x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-5.4%
vs +7.0% median
-177% below peer median
Net Margin
20.1%
vs 10.3% median
+94% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $223.1B | 17.0x | -5.4% | 20.1% | Hold | -18.6% |
RIO RIO Rio Tinto Group | $199.8B | 11.7x | -4.0% | 19.4% | Hold | +1.7% |
VAL VALE Vale S.A. | $67.3B | 7.6x | +3.3% | 7.1% | Hold | +15.4% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $98.7B | 25.4x | +7.1% | 10.3% | Buy | +4.0% |
SCC SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $159.4B | 26.0x | +13.4% | 32.3% | Hold | -18.6% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $7.0B | — | +7.0% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BHP Dividend and Capital Return
BHP returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.86% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
Payout Ratio
70.9%
How BHP Splits Its Return
Div 2.86%
Dividend 2.86%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-30.3%
5Y Div CAGR
0.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.20 | -24.7% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| 2024 | $2.92 | -13.4% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 2023 | $3.37 | -48.0% | 0.1% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | $6.48 | +7.7% | 0.1% | 12.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsBHP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BHP Group Limited (BHP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $72, implying -18.6% from the current price of $88. The bear case scenario is $81 and the bull case is $169.
02What is the BHP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BHP is $72 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+8.1% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (-45.4%). The base case model target is $128.
03Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock overvalued in 2026?
BHP trades at 17.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BHP in 2026 are: (1) Global economic slowdown — Macroeconomic risks include the potential for a global economic slowdown, particularly given the interconnected nature of Australian markets with global trade and commodity cycles. (2) Overvaluation risk — The stock is currently overvalued by 68% based on DCF analysis, indicating potential downside risk if the market corrects. (3) Revenue decline — Revenue growth is forecasted to decline by 5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BHP Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BHP will report consensus revenue of $101.8B (-5.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.52 (-11.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $96.8B in revenue.
06When does BHP Group Limited (BHP) report its next earnings?
BHP Group Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-17. Consensus expects EPS of $2.74 and revenue of $30.1B. Over recent quarters, BHP has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does BHP Group Limited generate?
BHP Group Limited (BHP) generated $20.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. BHP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).