Upside case
Bull case
$431+444.5%
BHP would need investors to value it at roughly 85x earnings — about 70x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
BHP Group Limited (BHP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
31
analysts
7 bullish · 5 bearish · 31 covering BHP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
19
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$72
-9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$49 – $431
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
31
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $201.2B
BHP price targets
Three scenarios for where BHP stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
34 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $79
Bear
$49
Base
$159
Bull
$431
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$159+100.5%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$49-38.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push BHP down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
BHP Group Limited
BHP · NYSEBasic MaterialsIndustrial MaterialsJune year-end
BHP Group is a global diversified mining company that extracts and sells essential commodities like iron ore, copper, and coal. It generates revenue primarily from selling these mined resources—with iron ore contributing roughly half of earnings, copper about a quarter, and coal making up most of the remainder. Its key advantage is owning and operating some of the world's largest, lowest-cost, and longest-life mining assets, which creates a significant scale and cost moat.
Market Cap
$201.2B
Revenue TTM
$107.6B
Net Income TTM
$21.6B
Net Margin
20.1%
BHP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$2.75/$2.75
Revenue
$28.4B/$28.5B
Q1 2025
EPS
$1.74/$1.98
Revenue
$25.2B/$25.0B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.12/$2.09
Revenue
$26.0B/$26.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.24/$2.41
Revenue
$27.9B/$27.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $2.75/$2.75 | +0.0% | $28.4B/$28.5B | -0.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.74/$1.98 | -12.1% | $25.2B/$25.0B | +0.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.12/$2.09 | +1.4% | $26.0B/$26.0B | -0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.24/$2.41 | -7.1% | $27.9B/$27.3B | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$94.6B
-12.1% YoY
FY2
$90.7B
-4.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.50
-11.8% YoY
FY2
$7.14
-4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$20.9B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BHP beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
BHP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $47.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
66.9%
-7.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 66.9%, down 7.7% YoY.
BHP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $93 — implies +17.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
17.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BHP
22.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
11% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
BHP
22.3x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
In line with benchmark
vs BHP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.3x
vs
5Y Average
13.0x
+72% premium
Forward PE
15.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-18%
Basic Materials
15.2x
+3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-11%
Basic Materials
22.3x
0%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+72%
PEG Ratio
7.93x
S&P 500
1.72x
+362%
Basic Materials
1.17x
+577%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-20%
5Y Avg
5.5x
+59%
Price/FCF
21.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+3%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-15%
5Y Avg
10.3x
+110%
Price/Sales
3.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+26%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+107%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+53%
Dividend Yield
3.17%
S&P 500
1.87%
+70%
Basic Materials
1.32%
+140%
5Y Avg
7.32%
-57%
| Metric | BHP | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg BHP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.7x | 19.1x-18% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.3x | 25.1x-11% | 22.3x | 13.0x+72% |
| PEG Ratio | 7.93x | 1.72x+362% | 1.17x+577% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8x | 15.2x-42% | 11.0x-20% | 5.5x+59% |
| Price/FCF | 21.7x | 21.1x | 25.6x-15% | 10.3x+110% |
| Price/Sales | 3.9x | 3.1x+26% | 1.9x+107% | 2.6x+53% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.17% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 7.32% |
BHP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBHP Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
BHP generates $20.9B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 24.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$107.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-6.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
82.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
41.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$20.9B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$12.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.6× FCF
~0.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
39.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.2%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
70.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBHP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
BHP's revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to swings in iron ore, copper, and coal prices. Global economic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical events can trigger sharp price movements, directly impacting earnings. The company’s exposure to these commodities means that even modest price changes can materially affect cash flow.
High Risk
Geopolitical & Market Access
Tensions between nations, trade policy shifts, and instability can disrupt global trade flows and limit BHP’s access to key markets. China, a major consumer of BHP’s products, is particularly significant; any trade restrictions or tariffs could reduce demand and revenue. The company’s reliance on international markets makes it vulnerable to geopolitical developments.
High Risk
Climate Change Physical Risks
Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and other physical climate risks can damage assets, disrupt operations, and erode asset values. These impacts threaten operational efficiency and growth options, potentially leading to higher costs and reduced profitability. BHP’s exposure to climate-related physical risks is a significant concern for long-term financial performance.
Medium
Operational & Value Chain Risks
Events at operated or non-operated assets, including disruptions within the value chain, can cause damage, operational impacts, and financial losses. Physical climate impacts can exacerbate these risks, leading to increased downtime and repair costs. Operational reliability is critical to maintaining production levels and meeting financial targets.
Medium
Low-Carbon Transition Risks
Policy, regulatory, technological, and market shifts toward a low-carbon future pose transition risks for BHP. Changes in customer preferences or new technologies could reduce demand for certain commodities, affecting revenue streams. The company’s ability to adapt to these changes will influence its competitive position.
Medium
ESG & Reputational Risks
BHP faces risks related to environmental compliance, community relations, and ethical conduct. Legal liabilities, reputational damage, and increased operational costs can arise from environmental incidents or social issues, including water usage, biodiversity, and tailings management. These factors can impact investor perception and regulatory scrutiny.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BHP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Lowest-Cost Iron Ore Production
BHP is the world’s lowest-cost iron ore producer, enabling it to maintain high profitability even in price‑volatile markets. This cost advantage underpins sector‑leading margins that have averaged over 50% for the past 20 years.
Strong Financial Resilience
The company’s quick ratio of 1.28 demonstrates ample liquidity to meet short‑term obligations. In FY 2025 BHP reported an underlying attributable profit of $10.2 billion and a return on capital employed of 20.6%.
Dividend Stability and Shareholder Returns
BHP has a consistent dividend policy, paying fully franked dividends that typically range between 4% and 6% of earnings. This long‑standing commitment signals financial resilience and rewards shareholders.
Strategic Growth in Megatrends
BHP is expanding exposure to electrification and digitalisation through its copper portfolio and is entering the potash market with the Jansen project in Canada. The company is also strengthening its pipeline of growth options in copper.
Market Upside Potential
Analysts project a potential upside of over 12% for the stock, with a projected 9.3% increase over the next 12 months. BHP’s P/E ratio is considered attractive relative to peers and the broader industry average.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BHP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.24
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$45.74
+73.2% from the low
52-Week High
$83.22
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
+8.86%
3 Month
+14.67%
YTD
+28.3%
1 Year
+63.0%
3Y CAGR
+9.2%
5Y CAGR
+2.9%
10Y CAGR
+12.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BHP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.7x
vs 16.8x median
-7% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-12.1%
vs +3.7% median
-425% below peer median
Net Margin
20.1%
vs 10.3% median
+94% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $201.2B | 15.7x | -12.1% | 20.1% | Hold | -9.8% |
RIO RIO Rio Tinto Group | $200.6B | 12.3x | -9.3% | 19.4% | Hold | +1.2% |
VAL VALE Vale S.A. | $69.5B | 8.0x | -0.4% | 7.1% | Hold | +4.5% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $82.9B | 21.3x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +16.1% |
SCC SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $141.3B | 24.2x | +15.5% | 32.3% | Hold | -8.6% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | +4.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BHP Dividend and Capital Return
BHP returns 3.2% total yield, led by a 3.17% dividend.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.17%
Payout Ratio
70.9%
How BHP Splits Its Return
Div 3.17%
Dividend 3.17%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-30.3%
5Y Div CAGR
0.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.20 | -24.7% | 0.0% | 5.2% |
| 2024 | $2.92 | -13.4% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
| 2023 | $3.37 | -48.0% | 0.1% | 8.8% |
| 2022 | $6.48 | +7.7% | 0.1% | 12.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsBHP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
BHP Group Limited (BHP) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 31 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $72, implying -9.8% from the current price of $79. The bear case scenario is $49 and the bull case is $431.
02What is the BHP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BHP is $72 based on 31 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $95 (+19.9% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (-39.4%). The base case model target is $159.
03Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock overvalued in 2026?
BHP trades at 15.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for BHP Group Limited (BHP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BHP in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — BHP's revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to swings in iron ore, copper, and coal prices. (2) Geopolitical & Market Access — Tensions between nations, trade policy shifts, and instability can disrupt global trade flows and limit BHP’s access to key markets. (3) Climate Change Physical Risks — Extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and other physical climate risks can damage assets, disrupt operations, and erode asset values. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is BHP Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BHP will report consensus revenue of $94.6B (-12.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.50 (-11.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $90.7B in revenue.
06When does BHP Group Limited (BHP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BHP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does BHP Group Limited generate?
BHP Group Limited (BHP) generated $20.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. BHP returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).