Upside case
Bull case
$570+201.1%
BIIB would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
28 bullish · 1 bearish · 48 covering BIIB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$211
+11.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$139 – $570
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $27.9B
BIIB price targets
Three scenarios for where BIIB stock could go
Current
~$189
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $189
Bear
$139
Base
$248
Bull
$570
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$248+31.1%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$139-26.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push BIIB down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Biogen Inc.
BIIB · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Biogen is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing therapies for neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. It generates revenue primarily from multiple sclerosis drugs like TECFIDERA and VUMERITY (~40% of sales), spinal muscular atrophy treatment SPINRAZA (~25%), and biosimilars for autoimmune conditions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep neuroscience expertise and specialized manufacturing capabilities for complex biologics.
Market Cap
$27.9B
Revenue TTM
$9.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
13.9%
BIIB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.47/$3.90
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.81/$3.88
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.99/$1.63
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.57/$3.05
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.47/$3.90 | +40.3% | $2.6B/$2.3B | +13.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.81/$3.88 | +24.0% | $2.5B/$2.3B | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.99/$1.63 | +22.1% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.57/$3.05 | +17.0% | $2.5B/$2.3B | +8.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.8B
-0.5% YoY
FY2
$9.8B
-0.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.50
+24.3% YoY
FY2
$11.58
+0.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 26.6%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.04
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
BIIB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BIIB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
MS Product Revenues
42.0%
-7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
60.1%
-10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
MS Product Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 42.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.1% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 60.1%, down 10.2% YoY.
BIIB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $213 — implies +14.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BIIB
21.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
15% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BIIB
21.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
In line with benchmark
vs BIIB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.4x
vs
5Y Average
20.5x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-32%
Healthcare
18.8x
-32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-15%
Healthcare
22.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
20.5x
+5%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-26%
Healthcare
14.0x
-19%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-8%
Price/FCF
13.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
-35%
Healthcare
18.6x
-27%
5Y Avg
19.6x
-30%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-9%
Healthcare
2.8x
+2%
5Y Avg
3.2x
-11%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.42%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BIIB | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BIIB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.9x | 19.1x-32% | 18.8x-32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.4x | 25.1x-15% | 22.2x | 20.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3x | 15.2x-26% | 14.0x-19% | 12.3x |
| Price/FCF | 13.6x | 21.1x-35% | 18.6x-27% | 19.6x-30% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x | 2.8x | 3.2x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.42% | — |
BIIB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBIIB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BIIB generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 26.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
148M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBIIB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial and Corporate Risks
Biogen faces potential declines in investment value due to interest rate changes, market sentiment, or global financial instability. The company's ability to repurchase shares is contingent on cash balances, future capital needs, and excise taxes on repurchases.
High Risk
Technology and Innovation Risks
The company is exposed to significant risks in its R&D pipeline, including the uncertainty of drug development and the potential for clinical trial failures. A failure to obtain necessary licenses for products or technologies could severely hinder manufacturing and sales.
High Risk
Legal and Regulatory Risks
Biogen is at risk of litigation, including patent disputes and qui tam actions, which could impact its operations. The regulatory approval process for new drugs is challenging, with only a small fraction of R&D programs leading to successful commercialization.
Medium
Production and Manufacturing Risks
The company is vulnerable to risks associated with its manufacturing capacity and operations, which could affect its ability to meet market demand. Any disruptions in production could lead to significant financial losses.
Medium
Market and Sales Risks
Biogen's revenue generation is heavily dependent on its principal products, particularly in the multiple sclerosis franchise, which has seen declining sales. Market competition and the presence of counterfeit products could further jeopardize sales.
Medium
Operational and Macroeconomic Risks
Geopolitical tensions, acts of war, and large-scale crises pose risks to Biogen's operations. Economic fluctuations can impact the company's ability to collect receivables and secure financing.
Lower
Valuation and Market Sentiment
Despite recent stock gains, Biogen's valuation metrics, such as the P/E ratio, are nearing one-year highs, indicating potential overvaluation. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' but a notable number recommending 'Hold'.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BIIB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Diversifying Portfolio and Pipeline
Biogen is actively strengthening and diversifying its portfolio by developing treatments for rare diseases and neurodegenerative conditions. The company has a robust late-stage pipeline with multiple Phase 3 programs, including promising candidates like litifilimab for lupus, which could lead to new product launches and stabilize earnings.
Growth Drivers
Despite facing generic competition for its MS drugs like Tecfidera and Tysabri, Biogen has new growth drivers. Leqembi, an Alzheimer's drug, is expected to gain traction and potentially contribute significantly to revenue, alongside other growth areas like the SMA franchise with Spinraza and Skyclarys.
Financial Strength and Cash Flow
Biogen continues to generate substantial and durable cash flows, delivering $2.72 billion in free cash flow in 2024, representing a 16% yield at its market cap. This financial strength indicates a solid balance sheet, providing a margin of safety even with conservative revenue decline forecasts.
Undervaluation Potential
Some analyses suggest that Biogen's stock may be undervalued, presenting a buying opportunity. One valuation model indicates the stock is trading at a discount to its fair value, which could attract investors looking for value plays.
Market Conditions Favorability
Broader market conditions, such as historically low valuations in the healthcare sector, could favor Biogen. A shift in sentiment might re-rate the stock, providing additional upside potential.
Strong Operational Performance
Recent earnings reports have shown Biogen exceeding expectations, indicating strong operational performance and effective management. This trend could continue to bolster investor confidence and support stock performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BIIB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$189.13
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$115.25
+64.1% from the low
52-Week High
$202.41
-6.6% from the high
1 Month
+9.74%
3 Month
+2.03%
YTD
+6.4%
1 Year
+55.3%
3Y CAGR
-15.9%
5Y CAGR
-7.0%
10Y CAGR
-3.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BIIB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.9x
vs 15.6x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.5%
vs +9.3% median
-106% below peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 28.9% median
-52% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BII BIIB Biogen Inc. | $27.9B | 12.9x | -0.5% | 13.9% | Buy | +11.8% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $73.0B | 15.2x | +5.5% | 29.6% | Buy | +23.3% |
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $107.9B | 22.1x | +9.3% | 35.4% | Buy | +30.1% |
BMR BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $10.2B | 12.4x | +12.9% | 8.3% | Buy | +68.4% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $40.2B | 45.0x | +33.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +48.0% |
GIL GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $166.3B | 15.6x | +3.5% | 28.9% | Buy | +21.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsBIIB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $211, implying +11.8% from the current price of $189. The bear case scenario is $139 and the bull case is $570.
02What is the BIIB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BIIB is $211 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+37.5% from today), and the low-end target is $143 (-24.4%). The base case model target is $248.
03Is Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock overvalued in 2026?
BIIB trades at 12.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BIIB in 2026 are: (1) Financial and Corporate Risks — Biogen faces potential declines in investment value due to interest rate changes, market sentiment, or global financial instability. (2) Technology and Innovation Risks — The company is exposed to significant risks in its R&D pipeline, including the uncertainty of drug development and the potential for clinical trial failures. (3) Legal and Regulatory Risks — Biogen is at risk of litigation, including patent disputes and qui tam actions, which could impact its operations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Biogen Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BIIB will report consensus revenue of $9.8B (-0.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.50 (+24.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.8B in revenue.
06When does Biogen Inc. (BIIB) report its next earnings?
Biogen Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $3.04 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, BIIB has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Biogen Inc. generate?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.6%. BIIB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).