Upside case
Bull case
$371+88.5%
BIIB would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
48
analysts
29 bullish · 1 bearish · 48 covering BIIB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
29
Hold
18
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$218
+11.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$177 – $371
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
48
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $29.0B
BIIB price targets
Three scenarios for where BIIB stock could go
Current
~$197
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $197
Bear
$177
Base
$281
Bull
$371
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$281+43.1%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$177-9.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push BIIB down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Biogen Inc.
BIIB · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Biogen is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing therapies for neurological and neurodegenerative diseases. It generates revenue primarily from multiple sclerosis drugs like TECFIDERA and VUMERITY (~40% of sales), spinal muscular atrophy treatment SPINRAZA (~25%), and biosimilars for autoimmune conditions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep neuroscience expertise and specialized manufacturing capabilities for complex biologics.
Market Cap
$29.0B
Revenue TTM
$9.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
13.9%
BIIB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.47/$3.90
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.81/$3.88
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.99/$1.63
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.57/$3.05
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.47/$3.90 | +40.3% | $2.6B/$2.3B | +13.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.81/$3.88 | +24.0% | $2.5B/$2.3B | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.99/$1.63 | +22.1% | $2.3B/$2.2B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.57/$3.05 | +17.0% | $2.5B/$2.3B | +8.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.1B
+2.8% YoY
FY2
$10.3B
+1.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.65
+26.0% YoY
FY2
$12.41
+6.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 26.6%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.18
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
BIIB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BIIB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
MS Product Revenues
42.0%
-7.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Non-US
60.1%
-10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
MS Product Revenues is the largest disclosed segment at 42.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.1% YoY.
Non-US is the largest reported region at 60.1%, down 10.2% YoY.
BIIB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $266 — implies +35.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
35.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BIIB
22.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
9% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
BIIB
22.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
In line with benchmark
vs BIIB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.3x
vs
5Y Average
20.5x
+9% premium
Forward PE
13.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-28%
Healthcare
18.3x
-26%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-9%
Healthcare
22.1x
+1%
5Y Avg
20.5x
+9%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Healthcare
1.59x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-23%
Healthcare
14.2x
-18%
5Y Avg
12.3x
-4%
Price/FCF
14.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
-32%
Healthcare
18.5x
-24%
5Y Avg
19.6x
-28%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-4%
Healthcare
2.6x
+12%
5Y Avg
3.2x
-8%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | BIIB | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg BIIB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.5x | 18.8x-28% | 18.3x-26% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.3x | 24.4x | 22.1x | 20.5x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.59x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7x | 15.2x-23% | 14.2x-18% | 12.3x |
| Price/FCF | 14.2x | 20.7x-32% | 18.5x-24% | 19.6x-28% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 2.6x+12% | 3.2x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
BIIB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBIIB Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
BIIB generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 26.6% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
69.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.25
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.5× FCF
~1.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
148M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageBIIB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Patent Expiration
Spinraza’s patent set to expire in 2030, leading to potential revenue decline and long-term stagnation.
High Risk
Pipeline Risk
Bear case suggests a failed pipeline post-2030, exacerbating growth challenges.
Medium
Market Volatility
Historically, Biogen has shown significant drawdowns (-18% on average) during systemic shocks.
Medium
Growth Uncertainty
Long-term growth prospects are moderate but carry an unusually high degree of risk.
Lower
Valuation Risk
Stock analysis indicates potential upside, but bear scenarios highlight downside risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BIIB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Innovative Science Leadership
Biogen is a leading biotechnology company pioneering innovative science to deliver transformative medicines, enhancing patient lives and shareholder value.
Neurological Disease Focus
Specializing in neurological diseases, Biogen has a strong foothold in a critical and growing segment of the healthcare market.
Pipeline Expansion Strategy
With key patents expiring soon, Biogen is actively looking to expand its pipeline to sustain long-term growth.
Strong Analyst Consensus
Analysts rate Biogen as a Buy with a consensus target price indicating significant upside potential.
Investor Relations Transparency
Biogen maintains robust investor relations, providing clear and accessible information for stakeholders and analysts.
Multinational Market Presence
As a multinational company, Biogen benefits from diversified revenue streams and global market opportunities.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BIIB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$196.58
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$121.05
+62.4% from the low
52-Week High
$205.97
-4.6% from the high
1 Month
+2.43%
3 Month
+7.83%
YTD
+10.5%
1 Year
+55.4%
3Y CAGR
-12.5%
5Y CAGR
-12.7%
10Y CAGR
-1.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BIIB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.5x
vs 18.3x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.8%
vs +11.0% median
-75% below peer median
Net Margin
13.9%
vs 29.6% median
-53% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BII BIIB Biogen Inc. | $29.0B | 13.5x | +2.8% | 13.9% | Buy | +11.1% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $63.4B | 13.1x | +9.0% | 29.6% | Buy | +37.1% |
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $114.9B | 23.4x | +11.0% | 35.4% | Buy | +22.7% |
BMR BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $10.5B | 11.1x | +19.2% | 8.3% | Buy | +64.4% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $37.1B | 37.1x | +25.1% | 13.5% | Buy | +63.4% |
GIL GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $153.7B | — | +7.1% | 31.0% | Buy | +30.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsBIIB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 48 analysts covering the stock, 29 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $218, implying +11.1% from the current price of $197. The bear case scenario is $177 and the bull case is $371.
02What is the BIIB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BIIB is $218 based on 48 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+32.3% from today), and the low-end target is $185 (-5.9%). The base case model target is $281.
03Is Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock overvalued in 2026?
BIIB trades at 13.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Biogen Inc. (BIIB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BIIB in 2026 are: (1) Patent Expiration — Spinraza’s patent set to expire in 2030, leading to potential revenue decline and long-term stagnation. (2) Pipeline Risk — Bear case suggests a failed pipeline post-2030, exacerbating growth challenges. (3) Market Volatility — Historically, Biogen has shown significant drawdowns (-18% on average) during systemic shocks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Biogen Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BIIB will report consensus revenue of $10.1B (+2.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.65 (+26.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.3B in revenue.
06When does Biogen Inc. (BIIB) report its next earnings?
Biogen Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $3.18 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, BIIB has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Biogen Inc. generate?
Biogen Inc. (BIIB) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.6%. BIIB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).