Upside case
Bull case
$776+71.9%
VRTX would need investors to value it at roughly 40x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
56
analysts
47 bullish · 0 bearish · 56 covering VRTX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
47
Hold
9
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$554
+22.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$371 – $776
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $114.9B
VRTX price targets
Three scenarios for where VRTX stock could go
Current
~$452
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $452
Bear
$371
Base
$589
Bull
$776
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$589+30.5%
At 31x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$371-17.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push VRTX down roughly 18% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
VRTX · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing transformative medicines for serious diseases, with its flagship franchise targeting cystic fibrosis. It generates nearly all its revenue from CF therapies — primarily Trikafta/Kaftrio — while building a pipeline in pain, kidney disease, and type 1 diabetes. Its moat stems from deep scientific expertise in CFTR biology and a dominant, near-monopoly position in the CF treatment market.
Market Cap
$114.9B
Revenue TTM
$12.3B
Net Income TTM
$4.3B
Net Margin
35.4%
VRTX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.52/$4.29
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.80/$4.57
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.03/$5.11
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.47/$4.24
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.52/$4.29 | +5.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.80/$4.57 | +5.0% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.03/$5.11 | -1.6% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.47/$4.24 | +5.4% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.6B
+11.0% YoY
FY2
$14.7B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.84
+11.3% YoY
FY2
$20.29
+7.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.7B
FCF Margin: 30.3%
Next Earnings
August 3, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.73
Expected Revenue
$3.2B
VRTX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
VRTX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO
86.2%
+0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
45.9%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO is the largest disclosed segment at 86.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 45.9%, up 12.9% YoY.
VRTX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $314 — implies -30.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
30.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VRTX
29.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+21% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
VRTX
29.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+33% premium
vs VRTX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.5x
vs
5Y Average
26.4x
+11% premium
Forward PE
23.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+24%
Healthcare
18.3x
+28%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
+21%
Healthcare
22.1x
+33%
5Y Avg
26.4x
+11%
PEG Ratio
3.56x
S&P 500
1.66x
+114%
Healthcare
1.59x
+124%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
22.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+50%
Healthcare
14.2x
+61%
5Y Avg
19.9x
+15%
Price/FCF
36.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
+74%
Healthcare
18.5x
+94%
5Y Avg
27.9x
+29%
Price/Sales
9.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+208%
Healthcare
2.6x
+261%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+4%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | VRTX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg VRTX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.4x | 18.8x+24% | 18.3x+28% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.5x | 24.4x+21% | 22.1x+33% | 26.4x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.56x | 1.66x+114% | 1.59x+124% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.9x | 15.2x+50% | 14.2x+61% | 19.9x+15% |
| Price/FCF | 36.0x | 20.7x+74% | 18.5x+94% | 27.9x+29% |
| Price/Sales | 9.5x | 3.1x+208% | 2.6x+261% | 9.2x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
VRTX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVRTX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
VRTX generates $3.7B in free cash flow at a 30.3% margin — 23.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
86.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
39.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.93
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.8%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
254M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVRTX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Growth maturity
CF franchise growth is maturing, limiting revenue expansion potential.
High Risk
Commercial uptake risk
Suzetrigine's commercial success remains unproven, posing a significant revenue risk.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Potential re-rating as a slower-growth CF royalty at a compressed multiple if key products underperform.
Medium
Sector multiple compression
Biotech-sector multiple compression could negatively impact Vertex's valuation.
Medium
R&D and pricing pressure
Heavy R&D needs and pricing pressure may limit revenue growth to ~3.1% annually.
Lower
Stock recovery uncertainty
Stock recovery from 52-week low has been limited so far, indicating weak investor confidence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VRTX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Scientific innovation leadership
Vertex invests in scientific innovation to create transformative medicines for serious diseases, focusing on discovering and developing innovative treatments.
Strong biotech track record
Vertex was one of the first biotech firms to use rational drug design, establishing a strong reputation in the biopharmaceutical industry.
Bullish investor sentiment
There is a bullish thesis on Vertex Pharmaceuticals, indicating positive investor sentiment and potential upside for the stock.
Comprehensive tax solutions
Vertex provides trusted, integrated tax technology solutions, serving over 10,000 businesses since 1978, showcasing its diversified business model.
AI and ML integration
Vertex offers AI and machine learning tools, enabling users to develop and manage ML workflows, which could open new revenue streams.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VRTX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$451.63
52W Range Position
61%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$362.50
+24.6% from the low
52-Week High
$507.92
-11.1% from the high
1 Month
+3.45%
3 Month
+0.01%
YTD
-0.1%
1 Year
+0.7%
3Y CAGR
+9.6%
5Y CAGR
+19.2%
10Y CAGR
+17.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VRTX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.4x
vs 12.1x median
+93% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.0%
vs +15.3% median
-28% below peer median
Net Margin
35.4%
vs 8.3% median
+327% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $114.9B | 23.4x | +11.0% | 35.4% | Buy | +22.7% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $63.4B | 13.1x | +9.0% | 29.6% | Buy | +37.1% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $37.1B | 37.1x | +25.1% | 13.5% | Buy | +63.4% |
BMR BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $10.5B | 11.1x | +19.2% | 8.3% | Buy | +64.4% |
SRP SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $1.9B | 5.0x | +9.3% | 3.0% | Buy | +43.4% |
RAR RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | $2.7B | — | +15.3% | -91.0% | Buy | +76.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VRTX Dividend and Capital Return
VRTX returns 1.8% annually — null% through dividends and 1.8% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.8%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
254M
At 1.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsVRTX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 47 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $554, implying +22.7% from the current price of $452. The bear case scenario is $371 and the bull case is $776.
02What is the VRTX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VRTX is $554 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $616 (+36.4% from today), and the low-end target is $436 (-3.5%). The base case model target is $589.
03Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock overvalued in 2026?
VRTX trades at 23.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VRTX in 2026 are: (1) Growth maturity — CF franchise growth is maturing, limiting revenue expansion potential. (2) Commercial uptake risk — Suzetrigine's commercial success remains unproven, posing a significant revenue risk. (3) Valuation de-rating — Potential re-rating as a slower-growth CF royalty at a compressed multiple if key products underperform. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VRTX will report consensus revenue of $13.6B (+11.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.84 (+11.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.7B in revenue.
06When does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) report its next earnings?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-03. Consensus expects EPS of $4.73 and revenue of $3.2B. Over recent quarters, VRTX has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated generate?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.3%. VRTX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).