Upside case
Bull case
$1436+238.4%
VRTX would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 53x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
56
analysts
48 bullish · 0 bearish · 56 covering VRTX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
48
Hold
8
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$552
+30.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$26 – $1436
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
56
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $107.9B
VRTX price targets
Three scenarios for where VRTX stock could go
Current
~$424
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $424
Bear
$26
Base
$531
Bull
$1436
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$531+25.1%
At 28x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$26-93.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 21x multiple contraction could push VRTX down roughly 94% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated
VRTX · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing transformative medicines for serious diseases, with its flagship franchise targeting cystic fibrosis. It generates nearly all its revenue from CF therapies — primarily Trikafta/Kaftrio — while building a pipeline in pain, kidney disease, and type 1 diabetes. Its moat stems from deep scientific expertise in CFTR biology and a dominant, near-monopoly position in the CF treatment market.
Market Cap
$107.9B
Revenue TTM
$12.3B
Net Income TTM
$4.3B
Net Margin
35.4%
VRTX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.52/$4.29
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.80/$4.57
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.03/$5.11
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.47/$4.24
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.52/$4.29 | +5.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.80/$4.57 | +5.0% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.03/$5.11 | -1.6% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.47/$4.24 | +5.4% | $3.0B/$3.0B | -0.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.2B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$14.6B
+10.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.92
+16.1% YoY
FY2
$19.17
+7.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.7B
FCF Margin: 30.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VRTX beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
VRTX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $12.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO
86.2%
+0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
45.9%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO is the largest disclosed segment at 86.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 0.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 45.9%, up 12.9% YoY.
VRTX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $334 — implies -21.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
21.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VRTX
27.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+10% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
VRTX
27.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+25% premium
vs VRTX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.7x
vs
5Y Average
26.4x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
22.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Healthcare
18.8x
+18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+10%
Healthcare
22.2x
+25%
5Y Avg
26.4x
+5%
PEG Ratio
3.34x
S&P 500
1.72x
+95%
Healthcare
1.53x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+41%
Healthcare
14.0x
+53%
5Y Avg
19.9x
+8%
Price/FCF
33.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+60%
Healthcare
18.6x
+82%
5Y Avg
27.9x
+21%
Price/Sales
8.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+186%
Healthcare
2.8x
+219%
5Y Avg
9.2x
-2%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.42%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | VRTX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg VRTX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.1x | 19.1x+16% | 18.8x+18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.7x | 25.1x+10% | 22.2x+25% | 26.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.34x | 1.72x+95% | 1.53x+119% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.5x | 15.2x+41% | 14.0x+53% | 19.9x |
| Price/FCF | 33.8x | 21.1x+60% | 18.6x+82% | 27.9x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 8.9x | 3.1x+186% | 2.8x+219% | 9.2x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.42% | — |
VRTX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVRTX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
VRTX generates $3.7B in free cash flow at a 30.3% margin — 23.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
86.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
39.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.93
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
30.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
23.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
254M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVRTX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Approval Delays or Denials
Vertex's ability to commercialize its product candidates is contingent on obtaining regulatory approval, which can be uncertain and time-consuming. Delays or rejections by agencies like the FDA could significantly impact stock price and investor sentiment.
High Risk
Changing Healthcare Policies
Current and future healthcare laws and regulations in the U.S. and globally could adversely affect Vertex's ability to profitably commercialize its products. Any unfavorable changes in policy could lead to reduced revenues.
High Risk
Reimbursement Uncertainty
The insurance coverage and reimbursement for cell and genetic therapies, particularly one-time treatments, remain uncertain. This unpredictability could hinder Vertex's revenue generation from its innovative therapies.
Medium
Indebtedness
Incurring additional debt could elevate the risks associated with Vertex's business and impair its ability to service or repay its obligations. Increased financial leverage may lead to higher interest expenses.
Medium
Product Concentration
While Vertex has a robust cystic fibrosis (CF) franchise, this creates concentration risk. A slowdown in CF growth or unfavorable shifts in product mix could adversely affect revenue.
Medium
Market Saturation
The CF franchise may face long-term saturation risk as market penetration approaches maturity. Continuous innovation will be necessary to maintain market leadership and revenue growth.
Lower
Competition
The biotechnology sector is highly competitive, requiring Vertex to continuously innovate to maintain its market position. Competitors may develop alternative treatments that could impact Vertex's market share.
Lower
Insider Selling
Instances of insider selling activity have been noted, which, while not a direct risk to operations, may influence investor perception and confidence in the stock.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VRTX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
CF Franchise Dominance
Vertex’s cystic fibrosis portfolio, anchored by Trikafta and Alyftrek, serves a large portion of CF patients and has recently benefited from FDA label expansions that broaden their indications. The company’s intellectual property in CF is expected to sustain its leadership well into the future, providing a stable revenue base.
CRISPR Gene‑Editing Breakthrough
Casgevy, Vertex’s first CRISPR‑based therapy for sickle cell disease and transfusion‑dependent beta‑thalassemia, has received regulatory approvals in both the U.S. and Europe. This milestone positions Vertex as a pioneer in gene‑editing therapeutics and opens a new high‑growth market.
Non‑Opioid Pain Alternative
VX‑548 has shown promising late‑stage results as a non‑opioid treatment for acute pain, offering a significant alternative to traditional opioid therapies. Successful commercialization could capture a sizable share of the acute pain management market.
Renal Franchise Potential
Poveacicept, targeting immunoglobulin A nephropathy, achieved positive clinical trial outcomes and has filed a rolling Biologics License Application for accelerated approval. Analysts project this renal franchise to rival Vertex’s CF business in scale.
Strong Financial Outlook
Vertex is projected to grow revenue at approximately 9% annually through 2027, with forecasts reaching $28 billion by 2035. The company’s substantial cash reserves enable continued investment in its development pipeline without dividend payouts.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VRTX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$424.36
52W Range Position
43%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$362.50
+17.1% from the low
52-Week High
$507.92
-16.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.29%
3 Month
-7.51%
YTD
-6.1%
1 Year
-15.2%
3Y CAGR
+6.8%
5Y CAGR
+14.7%
10Y CAGR
+17.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VRTX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.1x
vs 13.8x median
+60% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +15.7% median
-41% below peer median
Net Margin
35.4%
vs 8.3% median
+327% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VRT VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | $107.9B | 22.1x | +9.3% | 35.4% | Buy | +30.1% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $73.0B | 15.2x | +5.5% | 29.6% | Buy | +23.3% |
ALN ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $40.2B | 45.0x | +33.2% | 13.5% | Buy | +48.0% |
BMR BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. | $10.2B | 12.4x | +12.9% | 8.3% | Buy | +68.4% |
SRP SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. | $2.3B | 7.3x | +15.7% | -11.2% | Buy | +13.0% |
RAR RARE Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. | $2.5B | — | +23.6% | -85.5% | Buy | +105.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VRTX Dividend and Capital Return
VRTX returns 1.9% annually — null% through dividends and 1.9% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
254M
At 1.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsVRTX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 56 analysts covering the stock, 48 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $552, implying +30.1% from the current price of $424. The bear case scenario is $26 and the bull case is $1436.
02What is the VRTX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VRTX is $552 based on 56 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $612 (+44.2% from today), and the low-end target is $437 (+3.0%). The base case model target is $531.
03Is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock overvalued in 2026?
VRTX trades at 22.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VRTX in 2026 are: (1) Approval Delays or Denials — Vertex's ability to commercialize its product candidates is contingent on obtaining regulatory approval, which can be uncertain and time-consuming. (2) Changing Healthcare Policies — Current and future healthcare laws and regulations in the U. (3) Reimbursement Uncertainty — The insurance coverage and reimbursement for cell and genetic therapies, particularly one-time treatments, remain uncertain. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VRTX will report consensus revenue of $13.2B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.92 (+16.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.6B in revenue.
06When does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VRTX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated generate?
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated (VRTX) generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 30.3%. VRTX returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.0B TTM).