Upside case
Bull case
$136+2.0%
GILD would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
58
analysts
37 bullish · 1 bearish · 58 covering GILD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
37
Hold
20
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$162
+21.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$14 – $136
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
58
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $166.3B
GILD price targets
Three scenarios for where GILD stock could go
Current
~$133
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $133
Bear
$14
Base
$133
Bull
$136
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$133+0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing GILD — at roughly 16x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$14-89.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push GILD down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Gilead Sciences, Inc.
GILD · NASDAQHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralDecember year-end
Gilead Sciences is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing medicines for serious diseases like HIV, viral hepatitis, and cancer. It generates revenue primarily from antiviral drugs — especially HIV treatments like Biktarvy which drive the majority of sales — along with oncology therapies and COVID-19 treatment Veklury. The company's moat lies in its deep expertise in antiviral drug development, a robust HIV franchise with high patient retention, and a pipeline of cell therapy and oncology assets.
Market Cap
$166.3B
Revenue TTM
$29.4B
Net Income TTM
$8.5B
Net Margin
28.9%
GILD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.81/$1.78
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.8B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.01/$1.96
Revenue
$7.1B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.47/$2.13
Revenue
$7.8B/$7.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.86/$1.81
Revenue
$7.9B/$7.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.81/$1.78 | +1.7% | $6.7B/$6.8B | -2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.01/$1.96 | +2.6% | $7.1B/$7.0B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47/$2.13 | +16.0% | $7.8B/$7.4B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.86/$1.81 | +2.8% | $7.9B/$7.7B | +3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.5B
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$32.2B
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.73
+13.8% YoY
FY2
$7.97
+3.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.7B
FCF Margin: 32.8%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.89
Expected Revenue
$6.9B
GILD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GILD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $26.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Products, Other HIV
75.5%
+7.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.6%
+5.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Products, Other HIV is the largest disclosed segment at 75.5% of FY 2024 revenue, up 7.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.6%, up 5.9% YoY.
GILD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $94 — implies -28.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
28.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GILD
351.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+1299% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
GILD
351.3x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
+1483% premium
vs GILD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
351.3x
vs
5Y Average
18.8x
+1771% premium
Forward PE
15.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-18%
Healthcare
18.8x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
351.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
+1299%
Healthcare
22.2x
+1483%
5Y Avg
18.8x
+1771%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
41.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+172%
Healthcare
14.0x
+195%
5Y Avg
16.5x
+150%
Price/FCF
16.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
-23%
Healthcare
18.6x
-13%
5Y Avg
11.2x
+44%
Price/Sales
5.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+85%
Healthcare
2.8x
+106%
5Y Avg
3.6x
+60%
Dividend Yield
2.34%
S&P 500
1.87%
+25%
Healthcare
1.42%
+65%
5Y Avg
3.83%
-39%
| Metric | GILD | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg GILD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.6x | 19.1x-18% | 18.8x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 351.3x | 25.1x+1299% | 22.2x+1483% | 18.8x+1771% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 41.3x | 15.2x+172% | 14.0x+195% | 16.5x+150% |
| Price/FCF | 16.1x | 21.1x-23% | 18.6x-13% | 11.2x+44% |
| Price/Sales | 5.8x | 3.1x+85% | 2.8x+106% | 3.6x+60% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.34% | 1.87% | 1.42% | 3.83% |
GILD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGILD Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
GILD generates $9.7B in free cash flow at a 32.8% margin — returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$29.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
80.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
37.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
28.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.79
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$9.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
32.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
14.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.7× FCF
~1.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
37.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (3.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
2.3%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.12
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
816.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageGILD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Holds & Safety Signals
FDA has placed clinical holds on investigational HIV drugs GS‑1720 and GS‑4182 due to safety signals such as decreased CD4+ T‑cell counts. These holds can delay market entry, increase development costs, and postpone expected revenue streams.
High Risk
HIV Revenue Concentration
Nearly 75% of Gilead’s product revenue comes from its HIV portfolio. A patent expiration for a top‑selling HIV drug is slated for 2033, exposing the company to significant revenue erosion if no new HIV products are launched.
Medium
Drug Development Failure Risk
Gilead’s growth depends on successful development and commercialization of new products. A Phase 3 trial of Trodelvy in breast cancer failed to meet its primary endpoint, illustrating the high risk of costly R&D failures.
Medium
Intense Competitive Landscape
The biopharma sector is highly competitive, with rivals advancing oncology and cell‑therapy products that could erode Gilead’s market share and pressure pricing.
Medium
SEC & Litigation Exposure
Ongoing SEC investigations into oncology revenue reporting and class‑action lawsuits introduce potential fines, financial penalties, and reputational harm that could affect investor confidence.
Lower
Foreign Currency Risk
A sizable portion of sales originates outside the U.S., making Gilead vulnerable to Euro and other currency swings that can compress earnings and cash flow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GILD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust HIV Franchise
Gilead’s HIV business remains a consistent profit driver, with sales growing year‑over‑year and new products such as Yeztugo and Biktarvy expanding its market share. The company’s next‑generation therapies are positioned to capture additional revenue from patients seeking improved efficacy and tolerability.
Expanding Oncology Pipeline
Recent acquisitions—Arcellx’s CAR‑T therapy anito‑cel and Tubulis’s antibody‑drug conjugate technology—are bolstering Gilead’s oncology presence. Revenue estimates for Trodelvy have been raised, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s cancer drug portfolio.
Strategic Acquisitions & Collaborations
Gilead is pursuing collaborations such as with Galapagos NV for autoimmune disease treatments and has acquired Ouro Medicines to advance its pipeline. These moves diversify revenue streams and reduce reliance on legacy products.
Most Active Pipeline Year
The company is entering its most active pipeline year in over a decade, with several near‑term launches planned and a strong focus on high‑value therapeutic areas. This heightened innovation activity is expected to drive future growth.
Consistent Revenue Growth & Dividend
Gilead has shown steady revenue growth and a solid return on equity, while offering an attractive dividend yield. These financial fundamentals support a positive outlook for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GILD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$133.48
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$95.30
+40.1% from the low
52-Week High
$157.29
-15.1% from the high
1 Month
-4.75%
3 Month
-10.64%
YTD
+9.8%
1 Year
+29.8%
3Y CAGR
+18.7%
5Y CAGR
+14.9%
10Y CAGR
+4.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GILD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.6x
vs 14.5x median
+8% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.5%
vs +4.5% median
-23% below peer median
Net Margin
28.9%
vs 15.0% median
+93% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GIL GILD Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $166.3B | 15.6x | +3.5% | 28.9% | Buy | +21.3% |
ABB ABBV AbbVie Inc. | $364.6B | 14.5x | +7.7% | 6.9% | Buy | +24.5% |
BMY BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $116.2B | 9.0x | -0.6% | 15.0% | Hold | +8.9% |
AMG AMGN Amgen Inc. | $177.9B | 14.8x | +4.5% | 20.9% | Buy | +6.4% |
BII BIIB Biogen Inc. | $27.9B | 12.9x | -0.5% | 13.9% | Buy | +11.8% |
REG REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $73.0B | 15.2x | +5.5% | 29.6% | Buy | +23.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GILD Dividend and Capital Return
GILD returns 3.0% total yield, led by a 2.34% dividend, raised 10 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
2.34%
Payout Ratio
8.2%
How GILD Splits Its Return
Div 2.34%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 2.34%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.12
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.7%
5Y Div CAGR
3.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.82 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.16 | +2.6% | — | — |
| 2024 | $3.08 | +2.7% | 1.0% | 4.4% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | +2.7% | 1.0% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $2.92 | +2.8% | 1.3% | 4.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsGILD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 58 analysts covering the stock, 37 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $162, implying +21.3% from the current price of $133. The bear case scenario is $14 and the bull case is $136.
02What is the GILD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GILD is $162 based on 58 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $180 (+34.9% from today), and the low-end target is $133 (-0.4%). The base case model target is $133.
03Is Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) stock overvalued in 2026?
GILD trades at 15.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GILD in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Holds & Safety Signals — FDA has placed clinical holds on investigational HIV drugs GS‑1720 and GS‑4182 due to safety signals such as decreased CD4+ T‑cell counts. (2) HIV Revenue Concentration — Nearly 75% of Gilead’s product revenue comes from its HIV portfolio. (3) Drug Development Failure Risk — Gilead’s growth depends on successful development and commercialization of new products. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Gilead Sciences, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GILD will report consensus revenue of $30.5B (+3.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.73 (+13.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $32.2B in revenue.
06When does Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) report its next earnings?
Gilead Sciences, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $1.89 and revenue of $6.9B. Over recent quarters, GILD has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Gilead Sciences, Inc. generate?
Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) generated $9.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 32.8%. GILD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.3% yield) and share repurchases ($1.1B TTM).