Upside case
Bull case
$643+85.3%
GD would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
34
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 34 covering GD
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
16
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$409
+17.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$318 – $643
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
34
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $93.9B
GD price targets
Three scenarios for where GD stock could go
Current
~$347
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $347
Bear
$318
Base
$429
Bull
$643
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$429+23.4%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$318-8.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push GD down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
General Dynamics Corporation
GD · NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
General Dynamics is a major aerospace and defense contractor that builds military equipment and business jets. It generates revenue through four main segments: Aerospace (~30% of sales from Gulfstream jets), Marine Systems (~25% from naval ships), Combat Systems (~25% from armored vehicles), and Technologies (~20% from IT services). Its competitive moat comes from long-term government contracts, specialized security clearances, and decades of institutional knowledge in classified defense programs.
Market Cap
$93.9B
Revenue TTM
$53.8B
Net Income TTM
$4.3B
Net Margin
8.1%
GD Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.74/$3.55
Revenue
$13.0B/$12.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.88/$3.70
Revenue
$12.9B/$12.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$4.17/$4.11
Revenue
$14.4B/$13.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$4.10/$3.67
Revenue
$13.5B/$12.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.74/$3.55 | +5.4% | $13.0B/$12.4B | +5.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.88/$3.70 | +4.9% | $12.9B/$12.5B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.17/$4.11 | +1.5% | $14.4B/$13.8B | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.10/$3.67 | +11.7% | $13.5B/$12.7B | +6.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$57.1B
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$61.9B
+8.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$17.16
+8.4% YoY
FY2
$19.08
+11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.2B
FCF Margin: 11.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GD beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GD Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $52.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Marine Systems
31.8%
+16.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
47.2%
+8.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Marine Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 31.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 16.6% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 47.2%, up 8.3% YoY.
GD Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $358 — implies +3.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
3.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GD
22.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
11% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
GD
22.5x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
13% discount
vs GD 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.2x
+11% premium
Forward PE
21.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+10%
Industrials
20.8x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-11%
Industrials
25.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
20.2x
+11%
PEG Ratio
3.19x
S&P 500
1.74x
+83%
Industrials
1.64x
+95%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+10%
Industrials
13.7x
+23%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+10%
Price/FCF
23.7x
S&P 500
21.3x
+11%
Industrials
21.0x
+13%
5Y Avg
20.5x
+16%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-43%
Industrials
1.6x
+11%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+8%
Dividend Yield
1.67%
S&P 500
1.87%
-10%
Industrials
1.25%
+34%
5Y Avg
2.01%
-17%
| Metric | GD | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.1x | 19.1x+10% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.5x | 25.2x-11% | 25.9x-13% | 20.2x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.19x | 1.74x+83% | 1.64x+95% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.8x | 15.2x+10% | 13.7x+23% | 15.3x |
| Price/FCF | 23.7x | 21.3x+11% | 21.0x+13% | 20.5x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-43% | 1.6x+11% | 1.7x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.67% | 1.87% | 1.25% | 2.01% |
GD trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGD Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
GD generates $6.2B in free cash flow at a 11.5% margin — 12.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$53.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
10.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
8.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.84
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.2× FCF
~1.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.4%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$637M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
37.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
270M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageGD Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Government Funding & Defense Spending
A large share of General Dynamics’ revenue derives from U.S. government contracts that are often not fully funded at award and can be delayed or disrupted. Changes in defense spending priorities or budget cuts can abruptly reduce contract volumes, directly impacting top‑line growth and margin stability.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions & Supplier Misconduct
The company’s profitability hinges on timely delivery of components from a global supplier network. Any supplier misconduct, failure to meet contractual obligations, or supply chain interruptions can lead to cost overruns, delayed deliveries, and margin compression.
High Risk
Contract Performance & Assumption Deviations
Profitability is tightly linked to accurate forecasting of future conditions when setting contract terms. Significant deviations from these assumptions or inadequate risk management can erode contract profitability and increase exposure to cost overruns.
Medium
Labor Productivity & Skilled Labor Costs
Rising labor costs, especially for skilled workers requiring security clearances, threaten margins. Declines in labor productivity or increases in wage inflation can raise operating expenses and reduce earnings.
Medium
Product Delivery Delays (e.g., G700 Certification)
Execution challenges in converting backlog to revenue, particularly in Aerospace and Marine, can delay product deliveries. Delays such as the G700 certification can postpone revenue recognition and strain cash flow.
Lower
Valuation Overextension & Dividend/Buyback Limits
The stock trades at multiples above historical averages or sector peers, limiting room for error. Potential political actions to curb dividend payouts or share buybacks could dampen investor sentiment and compress the share price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GD Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
2025 Financial Momentum
General Dynamics posted 10.1% revenue growth to $52.6 billion, with net earnings up 11.3% to $4.21 billion. Operating earnings rose 11.7% to $5.36 billion, boosting the operating margin to 10.2%. Free cash flow reached $3.96 billion, representing 94% of net earnings.
Record Backlog & Order Visibility
The company holds a $118 billion backlog, a 30% year‑over‑year increase, and an estimated contract value of $179 billion. A book‑to‑bill ratio of 1.5x signals strong order intake relative to revenue.
Strategic Defense Segment Strength
Marine Systems benefits from contracts for Columbia‑class submarines, while Gulfstream jets dominate the private, corporate, and government markets. The Aerospace segment has shown margin improvements, reinforcing overall segment resilience.
Dividend Growth Legacy
General Dynamics has increased its dividend for 34 consecutive years, delivering a competitive yield within the defense industry. This long‑term commitment underscores management’s focus on shareholder returns.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GD Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$347.27
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$267.39
+29.9% from the low
52-Week High
$369.70
-6.1% from the high
1 Month
-1.17%
3 Month
-3.55%
YTD
+1.1%
1 Year
+28.3%
3Y CAGR
+18.1%
5Y CAGR
+12.5%
10Y CAGR
+9.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GD vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.1x
vs 25.5x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.1%
vs +5.1% median
+20% above peer median
Net Margin
8.1%
vs 7.7% median
+5% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GD GD General Dynamics Corporation | $93.9B | 21.1x | +6.1% | 8.1% | Buy | +17.7% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $118.5B | 17.2x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +23.5% |
RTX RTX RTX Corporation | $238.0B | 25.5x | +7.0% | 8.0% | Buy | +27.2% |
NOC NOC Northrop Grumman Corporation | $79.4B | 20.0x | +3.4% | 10.8% | Buy | +30.9% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $181.3B | 4955.4x | +14.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +14.7% |
LHX LHX L3Harris Technologies, Inc. | $56.4B | 26.1x | +4.6% | 7.7% | Buy | +16.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GD Dividend and Capital Return
GD returns 2.4% total yield, led by a 1.67% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
1.67%
Payout Ratio
37.8%
How GD Splits Its Return
Div 1.67%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 1.67%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.0%
5Y Div CAGR
6.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$637M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
270M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.09 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.92 | +6.1% | 0.7% | 2.4% |
| 2024 | $5.58 | +6.9% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| 2023 | $5.22 | +5.0% | 0.6% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $4.97 | +6.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsGD Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is General Dynamics Corporation (GD) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 34 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $409, implying +17.7% from the current price of $347. The bear case scenario is $318 and the bull case is $643.
02What is the GD stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GD is $409 based on 34 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $444 (+27.9% from today), and the low-end target is $371 (+6.8%). The base case model target is $429.
03Is General Dynamics Corporation (GD) stock overvalued in 2026?
GD trades at 21.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for General Dynamics Corporation (GD) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GD in 2026 are: (1) Government Funding & Defense Spending — A large share of General Dynamics’ revenue derives from U. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions & Supplier Misconduct — The company’s profitability hinges on timely delivery of components from a global supplier network. (3) Contract Performance & Assumption Deviations — Profitability is tightly linked to accurate forecasting of future conditions when setting contract terms. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is General Dynamics Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GD will report consensus revenue of $57.1B (+6.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $17.16 (+8.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $61.9B in revenue.
06When does General Dynamics Corporation (GD) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GD is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does General Dynamics Corporation generate?
General Dynamics Corporation (GD) generated $6.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.5%. GD returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($637M TTM).