Upside case
Bull case
$359+458.8%
CARR would need investors to value it at roughly 129x earnings — about 106x more generous than today's 23x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering CARR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$68
+5.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $359
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
23.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $53.6B
CARR price targets
Three scenarios for where CARR stock could go
Current
~$64
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $64
Bear
$84
Base
$110
Bull
$359
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$110+71.7%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84+30.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CARR down roughly 31% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Carrier Global is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire & security systems for residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. It generates revenue primarily through equipment sales (~60% of revenue) and recurring service/maintenance contracts (~40%), with its HVAC segment contributing the largest portion. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition, extensive service network, and integrated building solutions that create switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$53.6B
Revenue TTM
$21.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
6.0%
CARR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.91
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.63
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.34/$0.37
Revenue
$4.8B/$5.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.51
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.92/$0.91 | +1.5% | $6.1B/$6.1B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.63 | +5.7% | $5.6B/$5.7B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.34/$0.37 | -9.3% | $4.8B/$5.1B | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.51 | +12.2% | $5.3B/$5.0B | +6.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.1B
+1.0% YoY
FY2
$22.8B
+3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.47
+57.9% YoY
FY2
$2.92
+18.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 7.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CARR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CARR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
88.2%
-4.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.2%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 88.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 4.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.2%, down 1.4% YoY.
CARR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $121 — implies +78.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
78.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CARR
37.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+50% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CARR
37.8x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
+47% premium
vs CARR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.8x
vs
5Y Average
23.3x
+62% premium
Forward PE
23.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+21%
Industrials
20.7x
+12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+50%
Industrials
25.7x
+47%
5Y Avg
23.3x
+62%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+37%
Industrials
13.7x
+53%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+23%
Price/FCF
31.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+50%
Industrials
21.2x
+49%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+27%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-21%
Industrials
1.6x
+56%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+4%
Dividend Yield
1.42%
S&P 500
1.87%
-24%
Industrials
1.27%
+12%
5Y Avg
1.27%
+12%
| Metric | CARR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 23.1x | 19.1x+21% | 20.7x+12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.8x | 25.1x+50% | 25.7x+47% | 23.3x+62% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.9x | 15.2x+37% | 13.7x+53% | 17.0x+23% |
| Price/FCF | 31.6x | 21.1x+50% | 21.2x+49% | 24.8x+27% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-21% | 1.6x+56% | 2.4x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.42% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 1.27% |
CARR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCARR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CARR returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
5.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
51.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
835M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCARR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Declining Return on Capital
Carrier Global’s ROIC has fallen sharply over the past few years, signaling that the company’s capital is generating fewer returns. A lower ROIC limits the ability to reinvest in profitable growth and can erode shareholder value.
High Risk
Rate & Valuation Shock Sensitivity
During periods of rate and valuation shocks, CARR stock has historically dropped an average of 24%, far exceeding the broader market’s decline. This heightened sensitivity can lead to sharp, adverse price movements during macro‑economic turbulence.
High Risk
Financial Health Risk
Carrier Global’s Piotroski F‑Score is low and its Altman Z‑Score sits near the distress threshold, indicating deteriorating financial health. These metrics raise concerns about the company’s ability to weather downturns and maintain liquidity.
Medium
Organic Revenue Growth
The company’s organic revenue growth has averaged only 1.1% to 2.7% year‑on‑year over the last two years, suggesting waning demand in its core HVAC business. Without product or pricing improvements, growth may remain constrained.
Medium
EPS Decline
Despite revenue growth, EPS has fallen over the past two years, indicating that Carrier Global is becoming less profitable on a per‑share basis. This trend could pressure earnings expectations and investor sentiment.
Medium
Free Cash Flow Margin
Carrier Global’s free cash flow margin has declined, pointing to higher investment needs and increased capital intensity. A shrinking margin may limit the company’s ability to fund growth or return capital to shareholders.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CARR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Segment Growth in Aftermarket & Commercial HVAC
Carrier anticipates that 40% of its portfolio will drive strong growth, particularly in aftermarket and commercial HVAC. A sizable data center backlog is expected to convert into substantial revenue in 2026, bolstering the company’s top‑line.
Residential Market Recovery & Pricing Power
The residential HVAC market is expected to bottom out and recover, with Carrier planning price increases in its residential segment in the Americas. This pricing power, combined with robust demand, helps offset volume‑driven contractions in other areas.
European Heat Pump Market & Viessmann Acquisition
Carrier sees a potential recovery in the European heat pump market, amplified by its acquisition of Viessmann Climate Solutions. The deal expands Carrier’s presence in this key market and positions it for growth.
Margin Expansion Through Cost Management
Effective cost‑management strategies are projected to enhance margin expansion in 2026. Despite recent margin compression, the underlying cost base is viewed as structurally improving.
Strategic Acquisitions & Divestitures
Carrier has strategically acquired Viessmann Climate Solutions to strengthen its market position and divested non‑core assets, streamlining its focus on climate and energy solutions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CARR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$64.18
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$50.24
+27.7% from the low
52-Week High
$81.09
-20.9% from the high
1 Month
+15.45%
3 Month
+1.71%
YTD
+19.9%
1 Year
-9.4%
3Y CAGR
+14.8%
5Y CAGR
+8.2%
10Y CAGR
+18.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CARR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
23.1x
vs 30.6x median
-24% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.0%
vs +7.1% median
-86% below peer median
Net Margin
6.0%
vs 14.2% median
-57% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAR CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $53.6B | 23.1x | +1.0% | 6.0% | Buy | +5.2% |
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $105.7B | 32.2x | +8.2% | 13.4% | Hold | +8.6% |
LII LII Lennox International Inc. | $18.2B | 21.5x | +3.7% | 14.9% | Hold | +6.0% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.6B | 30.6x | +3.7% | 14.2% | Buy | -4.7% |
ALL ALLE Allegion plc | $11.4B | 15.1x | +7.1% | 15.2% | Hold | +30.4% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $7.7B | 47.3x | +19.7% | 7.5% | Buy | +27.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CARR Dividend and Capital Return
CARR returns capital mainly through $2.9B/year in buybacks (5.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.42% dividend — combining for 6.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.4%
Dividend Yield
1.42%
Payout Ratio
51.7%
How CARR Splits Its Return
Div 1.42%
Buyback 5.4%
Dividend 1.42%Buybacks 5.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.1%
5Y Div CAGR
19.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
835M
At 5.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.68 | -15.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | +6.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | +17.3% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.64 | +24.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCARR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $68, implying +5.2% from the current price of $64. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $359.
02What is the CARR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CARR is $68 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $79 (+23.1% from today), and the low-end target is $55 (-14.3%). The base case model target is $110.
03Is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock overvalued in 2026?
CARR trades at 23.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CARR in 2026 are: (1) Declining Return on Capital — Carrier Global’s ROIC has fallen sharply over the past few years, signaling that the company’s capital is generating fewer returns. (2) Rate & Valuation Shock Sensitivity — During periods of rate and valuation shocks, CARR stock has historically dropped an average of 24%, far exceeding the broader market’s decline. (3) Financial Health Risk — Carrier Global’s Piotroski F‑Score is low and its Altman Z‑Score sits near the distress threshold, indicating deteriorating financial health. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carrier Global Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CARR will report consensus revenue of $22.1B (+1.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.47 (+57.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $22.8B in revenue.
06When does Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CARR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Carrier Global Corporation generate?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.6%. CARR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).