Upside case
Bull case
$139+93.8%
CARR would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering CARR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$69
-4.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $139
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
25.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $60.0B
CARR price targets
Three scenarios for where CARR stock could go
Current
~$72
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $72
Bear
$67
Base
$106
Bull
$139
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$106+47.1%
At 38x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-7.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push CARR down roughly 7% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carrier Global Corporation
CARR · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Carrier Global is a leading provider of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, and fire & security systems for residential, commercial, and industrial buildings. It generates revenue primarily through equipment sales (~60% of revenue) and recurring service/maintenance contracts (~40%), with its HVAC segment contributing the largest portion. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand recognition, extensive service network, and integrated building solutions that create switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$60.0B
Revenue TTM
$21.9B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
6.0%
CARR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.92/$0.91
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.63
Revenue
$5.6B/$5.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.34/$0.37
Revenue
$4.8B/$5.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.51
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.92/$0.91 | +1.5% | $6.1B/$6.1B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.63 | +5.7% | $5.6B/$5.7B | -1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.34/$0.37 | -9.3% | $4.8B/$5.1B | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.51 | +12.2% | $5.3B/$5.0B | +6.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.3B
+2.1% YoY
FY2
$23.0B
+2.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.24
+43.0% YoY
FY2
$2.57
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 7.6%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.82
Expected Revenue
$6.0B
CARR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CARR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
88.2%
-4.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
51.2%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 88.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 4.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 51.2%, down 1.4% YoY.
CARR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $66 — implies -7.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
7.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CARR
42.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+73% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
CARR
42.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+65% premium
vs CARR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.2x
vs
5Y Average
23.3x
+81% premium
Forward PE
25.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+36%
Industrials
21.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+73%
Industrials
25.6x
+65%
5Y Avg
23.3x
+81%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+51%
Industrials
13.9x
+65%
5Y Avg
17.0x
+35%
Price/FCF
35.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+71%
Industrials
20.0x
+76%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+42%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-11%
Industrials
1.6x
+77%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+17%
Dividend Yield
1.27%
S&P 500
1.91%
-34%
Industrials
1.21%
+5%
5Y Avg
1.27%
-0%
| Metric | CARR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg CARR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 25.6x | 18.8x+36% | 21.2x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.2x | 24.4x+73% | 25.6x+65% | 23.3x+81% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.0x | 15.2x+51% | 13.9x+65% | 17.0x+35% |
| Price/FCF | 35.4x | 20.7x+71% | 20.0x+76% | 24.8x+42% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-11% | 1.6x+77% | 2.4x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.27% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.27% |
CARR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCARR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CARR returns 6.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.56
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$11.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
4.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.91
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
51.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
835M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCARR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Residential market downturn
Bears anticipate a prolonged residential downturn and structural demand impairment, with housing units potentially bottoming at 6.5 million before recovery.
Medium
Revenue conversion risk
The data center backlog's conversion into $1.5 billion of 2026 revenue is a key uncertainty, with bulls and bears debating its realization.
Lower
Dividend sustainability
While dividends are being paid, prolonged market challenges could pressure future payouts if earnings decline significantly.
Medium
Valuation dispersion
Wide target price range ($55-$90) reflects high uncertainty about demand recovery and growth prospects, leading to potential volatility.
High Risk
Macroeconomic sensitivity
Residential HVAC demand is cyclical and tied to housing markets, making Carrier vulnerable to broader economic slowdowns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CARR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Dividend stability
Carrier Global Corporation demonstrates financial stability with a declared quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share, appealing to income-focused investors.
Energy-efficient HVAC leadership
Carrier combines innovative technology with trusted expertise to deliver energy-efficient home comfort solutions, positioning it as a leader in intelligent climate control.
Strong brand portfolio
The company distributes well-known HVAC brands like Carrier®, Bryant & Payne, along with aftermarket parts, reinforcing its market presence and customer trust.
AI infrastructure growth
Carrier is seen as building the backbone of AI infrastructure, with data center growth offsetting residential market weakness and driving commercial demand.
Pure-play climate transformation
The company's recent shift to focus solely on climate solutions is undervalued by the market, presenting a growth opportunity as demand for sustainable solutions rises.
Attractive valuation metrics
With a forward P/E of 19.12, Carrier's valuation appears reasonable compared to its trailing P/E of 35.86, suggesting potential for investor upside.
Longevity and experience
With roots dating back to 1904, Carrier has over a century of experience in HVAC innovation, providing a competitive edge in technology and market understanding.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CARR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$71.81
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$50.24
+42.9% from the low
52-Week High
$81.09
-11.4% from the high
1 Month
+11.32%
3 Month
+24.65%
YTD
+34.2%
1 Year
+2.8%
3Y CAGR
+14.7%
5Y CAGR
+9.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CARR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
25.6x
vs 29.6x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.1%
vs +6.6% median
-69% below peer median
Net Margin
6.0%
vs 14.5% median
-58% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAR CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $60.0B | 25.6x | +2.1% | 6.0% | Buy | -4.1% |
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $107.0B | 32.4x | +8.0% | 13.4% | Hold | +8.6% |
LII LII Lennox International Inc. | $18.5B | 21.9x | +4.3% | 14.9% | Hold | +4.5% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.4B | 29.6x | +3.7% | 14.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
ALL ALLE Allegion plc | $11.5B | 15.2x | +6.6% | 15.2% | Hold | +21.5% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CARR Dividend and Capital Return
CARR returns capital mainly through $2.9B/year in buybacks (4.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.27% dividend — combining for 6.1% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.8%
Dividend Yield
1.27%
Payout Ratio
51.7%
How CARR Splits Its Return
Div 1.27%
Buyback 4.8%
Dividend 1.27%Buybacks 4.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.91
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.1%
5Y Div CAGR
19.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
40M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
835M
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.72 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.68 | -15.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $0.80 | +6.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | +17.3% | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| 2022 | $0.64 | +24.5% | 3.9% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsCARR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $69, implying -4.1% from the current price of $72. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $139.
02What is the CARR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CARR is $69 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $79 (+10.0% from today), and the low-end target is $55 (-23.4%). The base case model target is $106.
03Is Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock overvalued in 2026?
CARR trades at 25.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CARR in 2026 are: (1) Residential market downturn — Bears anticipate a prolonged residential downturn and structural demand impairment, with housing units potentially bottoming at 6. (2) Macroeconomic sensitivity — Residential HVAC demand is cyclical and tied to housing markets, making Carrier vulnerable to broader economic slowdowns. (3) Revenue conversion risk — The data center backlog's conversion into $1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carrier Global Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CARR will report consensus revenue of $22.3B (+2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.24 (+43.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $23.0B in revenue.
06When does Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) report its next earnings?
Carrier Global Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.82 and revenue of $6.0B. Over recent quarters, CARR has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Carrier Global Corporation generate?
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.6%. CARR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($2.9B TTM).