Upside case
Bull case
$715+47.9%
TT would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 32x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Trane Technologies plc (TT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
26
analysts
11 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering TT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$525
+8.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$342 – $715
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
32.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $107.0B
TT price targets
Three scenarios for where TT stock could go
Current
~$483
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $483
Bear
$342
Base
$543
Bull
$715
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$543+12.2%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$342-29.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push TT down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Trane Technologies plc
TT · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionDecember year-end
Trane Technologies is a global provider of heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and transport refrigeration solutions for commercial, residential, and industrial applications. It generates revenue primarily through equipment sales (~60%) and service/maintenance contracts (~40%) across its climate and transport refrigeration segments. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strong brand reputation, extensive service network, and energy-efficient technology portfolio that creates recurring revenue streams through long-term service agreements.
Market Cap
$107.0B
Revenue TTM
$21.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.9B
Net Margin
13.4%
TT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.88/$3.79
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.88/$3.80
Revenue
$5.7B/$5.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.86/$2.81
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.63/$2.53
Revenue
$5.0B/$4.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.88/$3.79 | +2.4% | $5.7B/$5.8B | -0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.88/$3.80 | +2.1% | $5.7B/$5.8B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.86/$2.81 | +1.8% | $5.1B/$5.1B | +1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.63/$2.53 | +4.0% | $5.0B/$4.8B | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.3B
+8.0% YoY
FY2
$25.0B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.09
+8.5% YoY
FY2
$15.37
+9.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.2B
FCF Margin: 14.6%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$4.27
Expected Revenue
$6.2B
TT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $21.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
65.6%
+5.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
80.5%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 65.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.0% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 80.5%, up 8.0% YoY.
TT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $494 — implies +2.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TT
37.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+52% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
TT
37.2x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
+46% premium
vs TT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.2x
vs
5Y Average
29.5x
+26% premium
Forward PE
32.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+72%
Industrials
21.2x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+52%
Industrials
25.6x
+46%
5Y Avg
29.5x
+26%
PEG Ratio
1.25x
S&P 500
1.66x
-25%
Industrials
1.65x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+71%
Industrials
13.9x
+87%
5Y Avg
20.1x
+29%
Price/FCF
38.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+84%
Industrials
20.0x
+90%
5Y Avg
31.3x
+21%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+62%
Industrials
1.6x
+221%
5Y Avg
3.5x
+44%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
S&P 500
1.91%
-60%
Industrials
1.21%
-36%
5Y Avg
1.16%
-33%
| Metric | TT | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg TT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 32.4x | 18.8x+72% | 21.2x+53% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.2x | 24.4x+52% | 25.6x+46% | 29.5x+26% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.25x | 1.66x-25% | 1.65x-24% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.0x | 15.2x+71% | 13.9x+87% | 20.1x+29% |
| Price/FCF | 38.1x | 20.7x+84% | 20.0x+90% | 31.3x+21% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+62% | 1.6x+221% | 3.5x+44% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.77% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.16% |
TT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TT generates $3.2B in free cash flow at a 14.6% margin — 26.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$12.99
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
13.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
34.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
0.8%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.74
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
28.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
221M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Technological disruption
Nvidia's Rubin chip platform could reduce data center cooling needs, negatively impacting Trane's HVAC demand.
High Risk
Sector outlook
Investors are adopting a more cautious stance on the HVAC sector, contributing to recent share price declines.
Medium
Execution risk
Investors should monitor Trane's ability to deliver on its raised guidance amid evolving industrial and climate trends.
Medium
Market exposure
Trane's heavy reliance on premium commercial and industrial HVAC markets makes it vulnerable to economic cycles.
Lower
Regulatory risks
As an environmental technology company, Trane faces potential regulatory changes in energy conservation standards.
Lower
Valuation concerns
Recent share price declines suggest investors may be reassessing Trane's valuation multiples.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Sustainable climate solutions
Trane Technologies is a global leader in providing efficient and sustainable climate solutions for buildings, homes, and transportation, positioning it well for growing demand in environmental products and services.
Installed base advantage
With over 50 million installed HVAC systems globally, Trane benefits from a recurring revenue stream through maintenance, parts, and upgrades, making it more of a subscription-like business than a cyclical industrial.
Market leadership
Trane holds leading positions in premium commercial, residential, institutional, and industrial markets, reinforcing its competitive moat and brand strength.
Efficiency and innovation
The company's focus on creating comfortable, sustainable, and efficient environments through innovative HVAC and building control technologies drives long-term growth and customer retention.
Strong institutional backing
Top institutional holders like Vanguard (9%) signal confidence in Trane's business model and growth prospects, supporting its valuation and stability.
Misunderstood economic model
The market underestimates Trane's true economic model, which is less cyclical than perceived due to its large installed base and recurring service revenue.
Diverse product portfolio
Trane offers a comprehensive range of products from air conditioning to ventilation, thermostats, and building controls, catering to a wide array of customer needs.
Global reach
With a presence in multiple markets worldwide, Trane is well-positioned to capitalize on global trends in urbanization and climate-conscious infrastructure.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$483.40
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$348.06
+38.9% from the low
52-Week High
$503.47
-4.0% from the high
1 Month
+4.99%
3 Month
+13.29%
YTD
+21.5%
1 Year
+15.1%
3Y CAGR
+37.6%
5Y CAGR
+22.8%
10Y CAGR
+25.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
32.4x
vs 25.6x median
+26% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.0%
vs +4.3% median
+87% above peer median
Net Margin
13.4%
vs 14.0% median
-4% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $107.0B | 32.4x | +8.0% | 13.4% | Hold | +8.6% |
CAR CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $60.0B | 25.6x | +2.1% | 6.0% | Buy | -4.1% |
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $88.4B | 29.6x | +3.7% | 14.5% | Buy | +8.0% |
LII LII Lennox International Inc. | $18.5B | 21.9x | +4.3% | 14.9% | Hold | +4.5% |
AAO AAON AAON, Inc. | $11.2B | 60.4x | +11.2% | 7.3% | Buy | -13.0% |
WMS WMS Advanced Drainage Systems, Inc. | $11.3B | 24.2x | +4.5% | 14.0% | Hold | +27.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TT Dividend and Capital Return
TT returns capital mainly through $1.5B/year in buybacks (1.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.77% dividend — combining for 2.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
0.77%
Payout Ratio
28.7%
How TT Splits Its Return
Div 0.77%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 0.77%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.74
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.9%
5Y Div CAGR
12.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
221M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.76 | +11.9% | 1.7% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $3.36 | +12.0% | 1.5% | 2.4% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | +11.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% |
| 2022 | $2.68 | +13.6% | 3.0% | 4.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsTT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Trane Technologies plc (TT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Trane Technologies plc (TT) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $525, implying +8.6% from the current price of $483. The bear case scenario is $342 and the bull case is $715.
02What is the TT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TT is $525 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $585 (+21.0% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-6.9%). The base case model target is $543.
03Is Trane Technologies plc (TT) stock overvalued in 2026?
TT trades at 32.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Trane Technologies plc (TT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TT in 2026 are: (1) Technological disruption — Nvidia's Rubin chip platform could reduce data center cooling needs, negatively impacting Trane's HVAC demand. (2) Sector outlook — Investors are adopting a more cautious stance on the HVAC sector, contributing to recent share price declines. (3) Execution risk — Investors should monitor Trane's ability to deliver on its raised guidance amid evolving industrial and climate trends. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Trane Technologies plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TT will report consensus revenue of $23.3B (+8.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.09 (+8.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.0B in revenue.
06When does Trane Technologies plc (TT) report its next earnings?
Trane Technologies plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $4.27 and revenue of $6.2B. Over recent quarters, TT has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Trane Technologies plc generate?
Trane Technologies plc (TT) generated $3.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.6%. TT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($1.5B TTM).