Upside case
Bull case
$254+77.3%
JCI would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 30x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
28 bullish · 0 bearish · 45 covering JCI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
17
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$138
-3.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $254
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
30.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $87.6B
JCI price targets
Three scenarios for where JCI stock could go
Current
~$143
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $143
Bear
$84
Base
$314
Bull
$254
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$314+119.6%
At 66x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84-41.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 12x multiple contraction could push JCI down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Johnson Controls International plc
JCI · NYSEIndustrialsConstructionSeptember year-end
Johnson Controls is a global leader in smart building technologies and integrated building systems. It generates revenue primarily through building solutions services (installation, maintenance, and retrofitting) and product sales across HVAC, fire, security, and building management systems. The company's moat lies in its comprehensive integrated systems approach—combining hardware, software, and services—and its established relationships with building owners and operators across commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors.
Market Cap
$87.6B
Revenue TTM
$12.5B
Net Income TTM
$2.4B
Net Margin
18.9%
JCI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.05/$1.01
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.20
Revenue
$6.4B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.89/$0.84
Revenue
$5.8B/$5.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.19/$1.12
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.05/$1.01 | +4.0% | $6.1B/$6.0B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.26/$1.20 | +5.0% | $6.4B/$6.3B | +1.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.89/$0.84 | +5.8% | $5.8B/$5.6B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.19/$1.12 | +6.3% | $6.1B/$6.1B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$24.8B
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$25.8B
+3.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.24
-2.3% YoY
FY2
$5.78
+10.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 11.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.12
Expected Revenue
$6.1B
JCI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
JCI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
+1.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 1.0% YoY.
JCI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $84 — implies -41.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
41.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
JCI
54.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+116% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
JCI
54.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
+110% premium
vs JCI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
54.4x
vs
5Y Average
29.0x
+88% premium
Forward PE
30.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+58%
Industrials
20.8x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
54.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+116%
Industrials
25.9x
+110%
5Y Avg
29.0x
+88%
PEG Ratio
2.12x
S&P 500
1.75x
+22%
Industrials
1.59x
+34%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+75%
Industrials
13.9x
+92%
5Y Avg
17.1x
+56%
Price/FCF
90.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+326%
Industrials
20.6x
+340%
5Y Avg
35.0x
+159%
Price/Sales
3.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+19%
Industrials
1.6x
+134%
5Y Avg
2.1x
+74%
Dividend Yield
1.04%
S&P 500
1.88%
-44%
Industrials
1.24%
-16%
5Y Avg
2.05%
-49%
| Metric | JCI | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg JCI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 30.2x | 19.1x+58% | 20.8x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 54.4x | 25.2x+116% | 25.9x+110% | 29.0x+88% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.12x | 1.75x+22% | 1.59x+34% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.7x | 15.3x+75% | 13.9x+92% | 17.1x+56% |
| Price/FCF | 90.8x | 21.3x+326% | 20.6x+340% | 35.0x+159% |
| Price/Sales | 3.7x | 3.1x+19% | 1.6x+134% | 2.1x+74% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.04% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 2.05% |
JCI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolJCI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
JCI generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 11.7% margin — returns 7.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-46.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
18.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$379M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$10.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.4× FCF
~7.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.9%
Dividend
1.0%
Buyback
6.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.49
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
612M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageJCI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Global Market Conditions
A projected slowdown in real GDP growth for 2025 could dampen demand for new commercial construction and upgrades, directly reducing JCI’s revenue streams. The company’s exposure to global economic cycles makes it vulnerable to delayed or scaled‑back capital projects.
High Risk
Sensitivity to Credit & Liquidity Crises
Historically, JCI’s stock has suffered larger drawdowns than the broader market during credit and liquidity crises, indicating heightened volatility in stressed environments. This sensitivity could amplify losses during future financial downturns.
Medium
Debt Leverage
JCI’s debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds the industry average, increasing financial risk during economic downturns. While the company holds investment‑grade ratings, higher leverage can constrain cash flow and limit flexibility.
Medium
Restructuring & Transformation Costs
The ongoing portfolio simplification and organizational realignment involve significant SG&A expenses, which can temporarily erode cash flow and profitability. These upfront costs may pressure margins until projected savings materialize.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
The integration of smart building solutions, such as the OpenBlue platform, heightens exposure to cyber threats. A successful breach could disrupt operations, damage reputation, and incur regulatory penalties.
Medium
Competition in Data Centers
Despite leading thermal management, JCI faces intense competition in the data center market, with rivals expanding capacity and innovating rapidly. Loss of market share could erode revenue growth and margin expansion.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why JCI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Q1 2026 Financials
Johnson Controls posted Q1 2026 earnings per share of $0.89, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.84. Revenue rose 6.8% year‑over‑year to $5.80 billion, exceeding estimates and indicating solid top‑line momentum.
Raised FY 2026 Guidance
The company lifted its adjusted EPS forecast to approximately $4.70 for fiscal 2026, reflecting confident outlooks from strong customer demand in core end markets and improved execution across the enterprise.
Data Center Cooling Catalyst
Johnson Controls is expanding into the data center market with advanced cooling solutions for AI and high‑performance computing, leveraging its OpenBlue platform and smart building technologies to drive future revenue and margin growth.
Order & Backlog Surge
Q1 2026 saw nearly 40% year‑over‑year order growth, while the backlog climbed to $18.2 billion, a 20% organic increase, underscoring robust customer demand.
Shareholder Return Commitment
The firm has a history of returning capital to shareholders, recently raising its quarterly dividend and maintaining uninterrupted payouts, signaling confidence in cash flow and long‑term stability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
JCI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$143.14
52W Range Position
93%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$87.77
+63.1% from the low
52-Week High
$147.32
-2.8% from the high
1 Month
+7.02%
3 Month
+3.99%
YTD
+17.0%
1 Year
+61.2%
3Y CAGR
+31.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.2%
10Y CAGR
+15.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
JCI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
30.2x
vs 24.5x median
+23% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.7%
vs +6.1% median
-40% below peer median
Net Margin
18.9%
vs 13.3% median
+42% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JCI JCI Johnson Controls International plc | $87.6B | 30.2x | +3.7% | 18.9% | Buy | -3.6% |
HON HON Honeywell International Inc. | $137.4B | 20.6x | +6.1% | 11.2% | Buy | +12.5% |
ETN ETN Eaton Corporation plc | $163.5B | 31.7x | +9.1% | 14.0% | Buy | -9.9% |
TT TT Trane Technologies plc | $108.0B | 32.9x | +8.2% | 13.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
CAR CARR Carrier Global Corporation | $56.7B | 24.5x | +1.0% | 6.0% | Buy | -0.6% |
EMR EMR Emerson Electric Co. | $83.2B | 22.8x | +3.8% | 13.3% | Buy | +9.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
JCI Dividend and Capital Return
JCI returns capital mainly through $6.0B/year in buybacks (6.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.04% dividend — combining for 7.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
7.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.8%
Dividend Yield
1.04%
Payout Ratio
29.7%
How JCI Splits Its Return
Div 1.04%
Buyback 6.8%
Dividend 1.04%Buybacks 6.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.49
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
42M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
612M
At 6.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.54 | +4.1% | 8.3% | 9.7% |
| 2024 | $1.48 | +0.7% | 2.4% | 4.3% |
| 2023 | $1.47 | +5.0% | 1.7% | 4.4% |
| 2022 | $1.40 | +21.7% | 4.3% | 7.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsJCI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $138, implying -3.6% from the current price of $143. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $254.
02What is the JCI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for JCI is $138 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $154 (+7.6% from today), and the low-end target is $124 (-13.4%). The base case model target is $314.
03Is Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) stock overvalued in 2026?
JCI trades at 30.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for JCI in 2026 are: (1) Global Market Conditions — A projected slowdown in real GDP growth for 2025 could dampen demand for new commercial construction and upgrades, directly reducing JCI’s revenue streams. (2) Sensitivity to Credit & Liquidity Crises — Historically, JCI’s stock has suffered larger drawdowns than the broader market during credit and liquidity crises, indicating heightened volatility in stressed environments. (3) Debt Leverage — JCI’s debt‑to‑equity ratio exceeds the industry average, increasing financial risk during economic downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Johnson Controls International plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates JCI will report consensus revenue of $24.8B (+3.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.24 (-2.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $25.8B in revenue.
06When does Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) report its next earnings?
Johnson Controls International plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.12 and revenue of $6.1B. Over recent quarters, JCI has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Johnson Controls International plc generate?
Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.7%. JCI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.0% yield) and share repurchases ($6.0B TTM).