Upside case
Bull case
$1409+64.2%
CASY would need investors to value it at roughly 78x earnings — about 30x more generous than today's 47x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
15 bullish · 1 bearish · 25 covering CASY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
9
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$688
-19.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$530 – $1409
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
47.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $31.9B
CASY price targets
Three scenarios for where CASY stock could go
Current
~$858
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $858
Bear
$530
Base
$1169
Bull
$1409
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1169+36.3%
At 65x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$530-38.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 18x multiple contraction could push CASY down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Casey's General Stores, Inc.
CASY · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailApril year-end
Casey's General Stores operates a large chain of convenience stores primarily in rural and suburban communities across the Midwest. It generates revenue through fuel sales — which typically contribute around 70% of total revenue — and in-store merchandise including prepared foods, groceries, and beverages. The company's competitive advantage lies in its strategic rural locations with limited competition and strong brand loyalty built on its popular prepared food offerings — especially its pizza.
Market Cap
$31.9B
Revenue TTM
$17.0B
Net Income TTM
$650M
Net Margin
3.8%
CASY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$2.63/$1.94
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$5.77/$5.02
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.53/$5.19
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.49/$3.00
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $2.63/$1.94 | +35.6% | $4.0B/$3.9B | +1.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.77/$5.02 | +14.9% | $4.6B/$4.5B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.53/$5.19 | +6.6% | $4.5B/$4.5B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.49/$3.00 | +16.3% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.9B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$19.3B
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.39
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$19.95
+8.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$667M
FCF Margin: 3.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CASY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CASY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2020
Total disclosed revenue $9.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gasoline
60.5%
-5.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Gasoline is the largest disclosed segment at 60.5% of FY 2020 revenue, down 5.7% YoY.
CASY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $313 — implies -62.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
62.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CASY
58.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+132% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CASY
58.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+199% premium
vs CASY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
58.6x
vs
5Y Average
24.6x
+138% premium
Forward PE
47.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+149%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+212%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
58.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
+132%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+199%
5Y Avg
24.6x
+138%
PEG Ratio
3.76x
S&P 500
1.75x
+116%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+295%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
28.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+88%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+153%
5Y Avg
12.8x
+125%
Price/FCF
54.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+155%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+263%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+123%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-36%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+181%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+150%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
S&P 500
1.88%
-88%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-89%
5Y Avg
0.57%
-60%
| Metric | CASY | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 47.4x | 19.1x+149% | 15.2x+212% | — |
| Trailing PE | 58.6x | 25.2x+132% | 19.6x+199% | 24.6x+138% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.76x | 1.75x+116% | 0.95x+295% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.7x | 15.3x+88% | 11.4x+153% | 12.8x+125% |
| Price/FCF | 54.5x | 21.3x+155% | 15.0x+263% | 24.4x+123% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-36% | 0.7x+181% | 0.8x+150% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.23% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.57% |
CASY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCASY Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
CASY 11.3% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$17.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
23.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$17.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$667M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$327M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.9× FCF
~3.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$734000
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
37M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCASY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Food Safety
Concerns over foodborne illnesses, contamination, or mislabeling can severely damage Casey's reputation and erode sales across all store locations. A single high-profile incident could trigger nationwide recalls and regulatory scrutiny, leading to significant revenue loss.
High Risk
Fuel Price Volatility
Wholesale petroleum costs are highly volatile, directly impacting revenue from fuel sales, which comprise a sizable portion of Casey's total sales. Sudden spikes in fuel prices can squeeze margins and reduce overall profitability.
High Risk
Valuation Overstatement
CASY trades at a trailing P/E of 42.38 and a forward P/E of 37.84, well above the market average, amplifying downside risk if the market corrects the perceived overvaluation. A sharp price correction could erode shareholder value.
High Risk
Cyber Security Breach
Failure to safeguard sensitive guest data exposes the company to data breaches, regulatory fines, and loss of consumer trust. A major breach could result in costly remediation and reputational damage.
Medium
Supply Chain and Cost Volatility
Unexpected cost increases, changes in retail pricing, and wholesale petroleum cost swings can erode operating margins. These factors add uncertainty to the cost structure and profitability.
Medium
Labor Shortages
Rising operating expenses and labor shortages in rural markets are expected to increase costs. Persistent shortages could limit store expansion and affect service quality.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CASY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent Sales & Earnings Growth
Casey's has delivered roughly 8.5% annual sales and earnings growth over the past decade. In FY 2025, revenue rose 7.25% to $15.94 billion while earnings grew 8.87%. Recent results show diluted EPS up 50% and EBITDA up 27.5%.
Prepared Foods Momentum
Inside sales, driven by prepared foods and beverages, are projected to grow 5.5% this year. This segment accounts for 60% of the company’s profit, underscoring its role as a key growth engine.
Food‑First Destination Advantage
Casey’s is positioned as a food‑first destination rather than a fuel stop, and it is the fourth‑largest pizza chain in the U.S. This identity supports premium pricing and higher margins.
Resilient Business Model
The company has consistently grown revenue even during economic downturns such as the dot‑com burst and the Global Financial Crisis. Its low‑cost, non‑discretionary products keep demand steady in all market conditions.
Strategic Rural Footprint
Over 50% of Casey’s stores are located in towns with fewer than 5,000 residents, where competition from small “mom and pop” shops is limited. This scale advantage allows the company to leverage economies of scale.
Digital & Loyalty Integration
Casey’s employs digital apps for food ordering and runs a loyalty program, enhancing customer engagement and repeat traffic. These tools help capture data and drive higher same‑store sales.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CASY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$858.14
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$430.00
+99.6% from the low
52-Week High
$867.40
-1.1% from the high
1 Month
+14.76%
3 Month
+29.84%
YTD
+54.3%
1 Year
+83.7%
3Y CAGR
+55.1%
5Y CAGR
+31.0%
10Y CAGR
+22.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CASY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
47.4x
vs 19.7x median
+141% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs -5.0% median
+203% above peer median
Net Margin
3.8%
vs 1.4% median
+168% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAS CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.9B | 47.4x | +5.1% | 3.8% | Buy | -19.8% |
MUS MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $10.7B | 19.7x | +0.6% | 2.8% | Hold | -12.5% |
ARK ARKO Arko Corp. | $731M | 25.1x | -5.2% | 0.3% | Hold | +16.3% |
CAP CAPL CrossAmerica Partners LP | $790M | 48.2x | -32.3% | 1.3% | Hold | — |
SUN SUN Sunoco LP | $9.1B | 9.3x | +16.9% | 1.6% | Hold | +1.6% |
NTB NTB The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | $2.2B | 9.1x | -5.0% | — | Hold | +1.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CASY Dividend and Capital Return
CASY returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.22% dividend, raised 26 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.22%
Payout Ratio
13.2%
How CASY Splits Its Return
Div 0.22%
Dividend 0.22%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
26Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.6%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$734000
Estimated Shares Retired
855
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
37M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.14 | +15.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| 2024 | $1.86 | +14.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | $1.62 | +11.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 2022 | $1.46 | +6.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsCASY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 9 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $688, implying -19.8% from the current price of $858. The bear case scenario is $530 and the bull case is $1409.
02What is the CASY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CASY is $688 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $860 (+0.2% from today), and the low-end target is $530 (-38.2%). The base case model target is $1169.
03Is Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) stock overvalued in 2026?
CASY trades at 47.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CASY in 2026 are: (1) Food Safety — Concerns over foodborne illnesses, contamination, or mislabeling can severely damage Casey's reputation and erode sales across all store locations. (2) Fuel Price Volatility — Wholesale petroleum costs are highly volatile, directly impacting revenue from fuel sales, which comprise a sizable portion of Casey's total sales. (3) Valuation Overstatement — CASY trades at a trailing P/E of 42. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Casey's General Stores, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CASY will report consensus revenue of $17.9B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.39 (+5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.3B in revenue.
06When does Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CASY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Casey's General Stores, Inc. generate?
Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) generated $667M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.9%. CASY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($734000 TTM).