Upside case
Bull case
$1096+98.8%
MUSA would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
11
analysts
3 bullish · 2 bearish · 11 covering MUSA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$524
-4.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$524 – $1096
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.2B
MUSA price targets
Three scenarios for where MUSA stock could go
Current
~$551
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $551
Bear
$524
Base
$832
Bull
$1096
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$832+50.8%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$524-5.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push MUSA down roughly 5% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Murphy USA Inc.
MUSA · NYSEConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Murphy USA operates a chain of retail gasoline stations and convenience stores primarily located near Walmart stores across the southern and midwestern United States. It generates revenue from fuel sales — which account for roughly 90% of total revenue — and from merchandise sales inside its convenience stores. The company's key advantage is its strategic real estate footprint adjacent to Walmart's high-traffic locations, creating a built-in customer base and significant cost advantages in site acquisition and operations.
Market Cap
$10.2B
Revenue TTM
$19.7B
Net Income TTM
$554M
Net Margin
2.8%
MUSA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$7.36/$6.82
Revenue
$5.0B/$5.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$7.25/$6.60
Revenue
$5.1B/$4.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$7.53/$6.67
Revenue
$4.7B/$4.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$7.28/$5.37
Revenue
$4.8B/$4.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $7.36/$6.82 | +7.9% | $5.0B/$5.3B | -4.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.25/$6.60 | +9.8% | $5.1B/$4.9B | +4.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.53/$6.67 | +12.9% | $4.7B/$4.8B | -1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.28/$5.37 | +35.6% | $4.8B/$4.7B | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.1B
+1.9% YoY
FY2
$20.7B
+3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$31.18
+5.4% YoY
FY2
$32.19
+3.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$555M
FCF Margin: 2.8%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$9.40
Expected Revenue
$6.0B
MUSA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MUSA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $19.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
76.7%
-6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 76.7% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.5% YoY.
MUSA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $488 — implies -11.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MUSA
22.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
6% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MUSA
22.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+8% premium
vs MUSA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.9x
vs
5Y Average
15.0x
+53% premium
Forward PE
17.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-8%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+6%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-6%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+8%
5Y Avg
15.0x
+53%
PEG Ratio
1.76x
S&P 500
1.66x
+6%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+90%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+8%
5Y Avg
9.9x
+33%
Price/FCF
27.2x
S&P 500
20.7x
+32%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+75%
5Y Avg
17.3x
+58%
Price/Sales
0.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-83%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-25%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+40%
Dividend Yield
0.39%
S&P 500
1.91%
-80%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-82%
5Y Avg
0.45%
-15%
| Metric | MUSA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MUSA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.3x | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.9x | 24.4x | 21.2x | 15.0x+53% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.76x | 1.66x | 0.92x+90% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 15.2x-13% | 12.2x | 9.9x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 27.2x | 20.7x+32% | 15.6x+75% | 17.3x+58% |
| Price/Sales | 0.5x | 3.1x-83% | 0.7x-25% | 0.4x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.39% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.45% |
MUSA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMUSA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MUSA 15.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 6.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$19.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
5.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$29.60
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$555M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$29M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.8× FCF
~5.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
89.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (15.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.8%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
6.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$650M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
19M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMUSA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation risk
Multiple models indicate significant overvaluation with a composite fair value of $604.12 vs current price of $622.16, implying 2.9% downside risk.
Medium
Earnings sustainability
Despite strong recent EPS growth from $2.67 to $7.36 YoY, the company faces challenges in maintaining this trajectory amid expansion costs.
Medium
Expansion execution risk
Aggressive store growth targets (45-55 new stores) and $475-$525M capital spending could strain margins if execution falters.
Lower
Subsidiary turnaround risk
Ongoing efforts to revitalize QuickChek subsidiary add operational complexity with uncertain payoff.
Medium
Competitive pressures
Benchmarking against Casey's, Couche-Tard, and Marathon Petroleum shows intense industry competition impacting moat durability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MUSA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong fuel margins
Murphy USA's fuel margins are a key driver of profitability, as highlighted by analysts.
Walmart-adjacent locations
The company benefits from high-traffic locations near Walmart stores, enhancing customer footfall and sales.
Potential share buybacks
Murphy USA's potential share repurchases could provide additional upside for investors.
Stock price appreciation
The stock has already appreciated 21.64% as the investment thesis continues to play out.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MUSA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$551.26
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$345.23
+59.7% from the low
52-Week High
$636.03
-13.3% from the high
1 Month
-2.49%
3 Month
+19.40%
YTD
+36.0%
1 Year
+35.3%
3Y CAGR
+24.1%
5Y CAGR
+33.7%
10Y CAGR
+22.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MUSA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.3x
vs 9.5x median
+82% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.9%
vs +6.3% median
-70% below peer median
Net Margin
2.8%
vs 4.1% median
-31% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MUS MUSA Murphy USA Inc. | $10.2B | 17.3x | +1.9% | 2.8% | Hold | -4.9% |
CAS CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.2B | 39.5x | +11.3% | 4.1% | Buy | +8.9% |
ARK ARKO Arko Corp. | $840M | 25.8x | +1.8% | 0.4% | Hold | +1.2% |
SUN SUN Sunoco LP | $8.7B | 7.4x | +12.5% | 2.7% | Hold | +17.3% |
DIN DINO HF Sinclair Corporation | $11.6B | 7.3x | +6.3% | 4.5% | Buy | +11.1% |
NTB NTB The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited | $2.3B | 9.5x | +0.5% | 29.0% | Hold | +4.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MUSA Dividend and Capital Return
MUSA returns capital mainly through $650M/year in buybacks (6.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.39% dividend — combining for 6.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.4%
Dividend Yield
0.39%
Payout Ratio
8.8%
How MUSA Splits Its Return
Buyback 6.4%
Dividend 0.39%Buybacks 6.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
19.2%
5Y Div CAGR
53.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$650M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
19M
At 6.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.15 | +20.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% |
| 2024 | $1.79 | +15.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% |
| 2023 | $1.55 | +22.0% | 4.3% | 4.7% |
| 2022 | $1.27 | +22.1% | 12.0% | 12.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsMUSA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $524, implying -4.9% from the current price of $551. The bear case scenario is $524 and the bull case is $1096.
02What is the MUSA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MUSA is $524 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $680 (+23.4% from today), and the low-end target is $450 (-18.4%). The base case model target is $832.
03Is Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) stock overvalued in 2026?
MUSA trades at 17.3x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MUSA in 2026 are: (1) Valuation risk — Multiple models indicate significant overvaluation with a composite fair value of $604. (2) Earnings sustainability — Despite strong recent EPS growth from $2. (3) Expansion execution risk — Aggressive store growth targets (45-55 new stores) and $475-$525M capital spending could strain margins if execution falters. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Murphy USA Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MUSA will report consensus revenue of $20.1B (+1.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $31.18 (+5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $20.7B in revenue.
06When does Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) report its next earnings?
Murphy USA Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $9.40 and revenue of $6.0B. Over recent quarters, MUSA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Murphy USA Inc. generate?
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) generated $555M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.8%. MUSA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($650M TTM).