Upside case
Bull case
$54+96.9%
CCL would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
28 bullish · 2 bearish · 47 covering CCL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$36
+31.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $54
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.0B
CCL price targets
Three scenarios for where CCL stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Base
$128
Bull
$54
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$128+366.1%
At 58x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carnival Corporation & plc
CCL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalLeisureNovember year-end
Carnival Corporation is the world's largest cruise operator, running a fleet of cruise ships across multiple brands that offer leisure travel vacations. It generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales — which account for roughly 70% of total revenue — and onboard spending on food, beverages, excursions, and casino gaming. The company's scale advantage — with the largest fleet and global brand portfolio — creates significant cost efficiencies in ship operations, marketing, and port negotiations.
Market Cap
$34.0B
Revenue TTM
$26.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
10.4%
CCL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+124.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.25
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.32
Revenue
$8.2B/$8.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.18
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.18
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.35/$0.25 | +41.9% | $6.3B/$6.2B | +2.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.43/$1.32 | +8.3% | $8.2B/$8.1B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.30/$0.18 | +62.7% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20/$0.18 | +8.5% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$30.0B
+12.6% YoY
FY2
$34.6B
+15.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.29
+168.7% YoY
FY2
$9.41
+78.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CCL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CCL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $26.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Tour And Other
65.4%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe Australia And Asia Cruise Brands
100.0%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Tour And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 65.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
Europe Australia And Asia Cruise Brands is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 11.8% YoY.
CCL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $71 — implies +165.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
165.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CCL
13.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
46% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CCL
13.6x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
30% discount
vs CCL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.6x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
10% discount
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-18%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-46%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-30%
5Y Avg
15.2x
-10%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-46%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-27%
5Y Avg
10.0x
-18%
Price/FCF
13.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-13%
5Y Avg
20.1x
-35%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+80%
5Y Avg
3.0x
-57%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CCL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 19.1x-35% | 15.2x-18% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.6x | 25.2x-46% | 19.6x-30% | 15.2x-10% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.3x | 15.3x-46% | 11.4x-27% | 10.0x-18% |
| Price/FCF | 13.1x | 21.3x-39% | 15.0x-13% | 20.1x-35% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 0.7x+80% | 3.0x-57% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
CCL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCCL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CCL generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.0× FCF
~10.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (8.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCCL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Fuel & Inflation Risk
Global geopolitical tensions and regional instability can erode consumer confidence, reducing cruise bookings. Volatile oil prices directly increase fuel costs, a major operating expense, potentially squeezing margins. Inflationary pressures may further dampen discretionary travel spending.
Medium
Debt & Restructuring Risk
Carnival has accumulated significant debt during pandemic shutdowns; a new financial crisis could trigger liquidity stress. Corporate restructuring, such as redomiciliation, may attract negative publicity and depress the stock price. Accounting volatility also threatens reported profitability.
Medium
Shipyard Capacity Risk
Limited shipyard availability hampers the company’s ability to execute shipbuilding and refurbishment programs, constraining fleet expansion and maintenance schedules. Delays could increase operating costs and reduce revenue potential. Energy price volatility further compounds operational exposure.
Lower
Health & Safety Liability
Past COVID-19 incidents on board have led to higher insurance premiums and potential lawsuits. Ongoing regulatory scrutiny could impose additional compliance costs. Negative publicity from legal disputes may erode brand reputation.
Lower
Post‑Pandemic Demand Risk
Uncertainty about the pace of passenger return to pre‑pandemic levels poses a risk to revenue. External shocks, such as new health crises, could delay recovery. This uncertainty may result in a risk discount on the stock.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CCL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Net Sales and Profit Surge
Carnival reported net sales of $26.23 billion for the 12 months ending August 2025, a 7.14% year‑over‑year increase. Economic profit jumped 95.94% to $673.9 million, and operating income reached a record $4.5 billion, reversing prior losses.
Debt Profile Tightening and Reduction
The company lowered its net debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio to 3.6×, and long‑term debt fell by $10 billion since early 2023, improving financial flexibility.
Strong Demand and Inventory Bookings
By 2026, 85% of Carnival’s inventory is already booked at record prices, supported by robust onboard spending and new destination launches. Geopolitical easing, such as a Middle East ceasefire, is expected to lift travel sentiment and reduce fuel costs.
Share Buyback Program and Yield Upside
Carnival has a $2.5 billion share buyback program that can boost share value. The company projects a 10% increase in dividend yield, driven by record onboard spending.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CCL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$27.52
52W Range Position
56%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.22
+43.2% from the low
52-Week High
$34.03
-19.1% from the high
1 Month
+5.97%
3 Month
-19.04%
YTD
-11.0%
1 Year
+40.9%
3Y CAGR
+37.4%
5Y CAGR
+1.2%
10Y CAGR
-5.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CCL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 25.9x median
-52% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.6%
vs +14.0% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
10.4%
vs 12.6% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCL CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $34.0B | 12.5x | +12.6% | 10.4% | Buy | +31.4% |
RCL RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $77.7B | 16.8x | +14.8% | 24.4% | Buy | +23.2% |
NCL NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $8.1B | 8.5x | +14.0% | 5.7% | Buy | +36.2% |
VIK VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | $27.2B | 25.9x | +20.7% | 17.7% | Buy | -9.8% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $95.1B | 31.0x | +8.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +3.7% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $73.2B | 35.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +5.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CCL Dividend and Capital Return
CCL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.4B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.15 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | $0.50 | -75.0% | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| 2019 | $2.00 | +2.6% | 1.9% | 6.4% |
| 2018 | $1.95 | +21.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| 2017 | $1.60 | +18.5% | 1.2% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCCL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $36, implying +31.4% from the current price of $28.
02What is the CCL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CCL is $36 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $40 (+45.3% from today), and the low-end target is $33 (+19.9%). The base case model target is $128.
03Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock overvalued in 2026?
CCL trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CCL in 2026 are: (1) Fuel & Inflation Risk — Global geopolitical tensions and regional instability can erode consumer confidence, reducing cruise bookings. (2) Debt & Restructuring Risk — Carnival has accumulated significant debt during pandemic shutdowns; a new financial crisis could trigger liquidity stress. (3) Shipyard Capacity Risk — Limited shipyard availability hampers the company’s ability to execute shipbuilding and refurbishment programs, constraining fleet expansion and maintenance schedules. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carnival Corporation & plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CCL will report consensus revenue of $30.0B (+12.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.29 (+168.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.6B in revenue.
06When does Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CCL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Carnival Corporation & plc generate?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. CCL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).