Upside case
Bull case
$40+29.5%
CCL would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
47
analysts
28 bullish · 2 bearish · 47 covering CCL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
17
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$35
+14.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$19 – $40
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
47
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $38.2B
CCL price targets
Three scenarios for where CCL stock could go
Current
~$31
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $31
Bear
$19
Base
$30
Bull
$40
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$30-1.7%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CCL — at roughly 14x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$19-38.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push CCL down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Carnival Corporation & plc
CCL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalLeisureNovember year-end
Carnival Corporation is the world's largest cruise operator, running a fleet of cruise ships across multiple brands that offer leisure travel vacations. It generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales — which account for roughly 70% of total revenue — and onboard spending on food, beverages, excursions, and casino gaming. The company's scale advantage — with the largest fleet and global brand portfolio — creates significant cost efficiencies in ship operations, marketing, and port negotiations.
Market Cap
$38.2B
Revenue TTM
$26.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.8B
Net Margin
10.4%
CCL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+127.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.43/$1.32
Revenue
$8.2B/$8.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.25
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.30/$0.18
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.20/$0.18
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.43/$1.32 | +8.3% | $8.2B/$8.1B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.34/$0.25 | +37.0% | $6.3B/$6.4B | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.30/$0.18 | +62.7% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.20/$0.18 | +8.5% | $6.2B/$6.1B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.8B
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$29.9B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.05
+4.3% YoY
FY2
$2.10
+2.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
June 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.34
Expected Revenue
$6.7B
CCL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
CCL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $26.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Tour And Other
65.4%
+5.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe Australia And Asia Cruise Brands
100.0%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Tour And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 65.4% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.8% YoY.
Europe Australia And Asia Cruise Brands is the largest reported region at 100.0%, up 11.8% YoY.
CCL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $54 — implies +74.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
74.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CCL
15.3x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
37% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CCL
15.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
28% discount
vs CCL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.3x
vs
5Y Average
15.2x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
13.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-26%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-15%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.3x
S&P 500
24.4x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-28%
5Y Avg
15.2x
+0%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-42%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-27%
5Y Avg
10.0x
-12%
Price/FCF
14.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-29%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-6%
5Y Avg
20.1x
-27%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+105%
5Y Avg
3.0x
-52%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CCL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.9x | 18.8x-26% | 16.3x-15% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.3x | 24.4x-37% | 21.2x-28% | 15.2x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.8x | 15.2x-42% | 12.2x-27% | 10.0x-12% |
| Price/FCF | 14.6x | 20.7x-29% | 15.6x | 20.1x-27% |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 0.7x+105% | 3.0x-52% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CCL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCCL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
CCL generates $2.6B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
37.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.97
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$26.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.0× FCF
~10.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
22.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (8.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageCCL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Elevated Fuel Costs
Rising oil prices and geopolitical issues have led to increased fuel costs, negatively impacting Carnival Corporation's financial outlook.
High Risk
Stock Volatility
Carnival Corporation's stock has experienced significant volatility due to external factors like rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
Medium
Regulatory Costs
Management projects regulatory costs to partially offset the positive earnings impact for fiscal 2026.
Medium
Consumer Sentiment
Analyst sentiment is negative, reflecting concerns about Carnival Corporation's current market position and industry challenges.
Lower
Operational Risks
The company faces operational risks related to production, as indicated by its top risk category.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CCL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong demand for cruises
Carnival offers popular cruise destinations and deals, indicating robust consumer interest in its services.
Bullish investment thesis
Analysts and investors have published bullish perspectives on Carnival, highlighting its potential for growth.
Debt refinancing opportunities
Carnival can refinance debt at lower rates, improving financial flexibility and reducing interest expenses.
Path to investment grade
Management aims to achieve an investment-grade credit rating by 2026, signaling financial stability.
Dividend reinstatement potential
A de-levered balance sheet may allow Carnival to reinstate dividends or pursue other capital allocation strategies.
New ship experiences
Carnival is introducing fresh dining, bars, and activities on ships, enhancing customer appeal.
Expansion into new markets
Carnival's ships are sailing to diverse destinations like India and South Africa, broadening its market reach.
Equity research support
Full equity research reports provide detailed analysis and buy/sell recommendations, supporting investment decisions.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CCL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$30.87
52W Range Position
72%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.58
+36.7% from the low
52-Week High
$34.03
-9.3% from the high
1 Month
+23.93%
3 Month
+27.77%
YTD
-0.2%
1 Year
+30.7%
3Y CAGR
+24.8%
5Y CAGR
+1.8%
10Y CAGR
-4.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CCL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.9x
vs 29.3x median
-53% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +7.8% median
+6% above peer median
Net Margin
10.4%
vs 12.6% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CCL CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $38.2B | 13.9x | +8.2% | 10.4% | Buy | +14.5% |
RCL RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $84.5B | 18.0x | +9.0% | 24.4% | Buy | +10.4% |
NCL NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $9.4B | 12.5x | +7.1% | 5.7% | Buy | +4.6% |
VIK VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | $43.2B | 29.3x | +11.8% | 18.0% | Buy | +1.9% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CCL Dividend and Capital Return
CCL does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.6%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | $0.50 | -75.0% | 0.1% | 4.5% |
| 2019 | $2.00 | +2.6% | 1.9% | 6.4% |
| 2018 | $1.95 | +21.9% | 3.4% | 6.6% |
| 2017 | $1.60 | +18.5% | 1.2% | 3.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsCCL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 47 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $35, implying +14.5% from the current price of $31. The bear case scenario is $19 and the bull case is $40.
02What is the CCL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CCL is $35 based on 47 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $39 (+26.3% from today), and the low-end target is $33 (+6.9%). The base case model target is $30.
03Is Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock overvalued in 2026?
CCL trades at 13.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CCL in 2026 are: (1) Elevated Fuel Costs — Rising oil prices and geopolitical issues have led to increased fuel costs, negatively impacting Carnival Corporation's financial outlook. (2) Stock Volatility — Carnival Corporation's stock has experienced significant volatility due to external factors like rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions. (3) Regulatory Costs — Management projects regulatory costs to partially offset the positive earnings impact for fiscal 2026. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Carnival Corporation & plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CCL will report consensus revenue of $28.8B (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.05 (+4.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.9B in revenue.
06When does Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) report its next earnings?
Carnival Corporation & plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-23. Consensus expects EPS of $0.34 and revenue of $6.7B. Over recent quarters, CCL has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Carnival Corporation & plc generate?
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. CCL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).