Upside case
Bull case
$1034+230.5%
HLT would need investors to value it at roughly 114x earnings — about 80x more generous than today's 35x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 49 covering HLT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
22
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$338
+8.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1034
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $71.2B
HLT price targets
Three scenarios for where HLT stock could go
Current
~$313
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $313
Base
$502
Bull
$1034
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$502+60.4%
At 55x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.
HLT · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
Hilton Worldwide is a global hospitality company that operates a portfolio of hotel brands across luxury, full-service, and limited-service segments. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees (about 60% of total) and management contracts, with a smaller portion from owned and leased hotels. The company's competitive advantage lies in its powerful brand portfolio, industry-leading loyalty program with over 180 million members, and massive global scale across 122 countries.
Market Cap
$71.2B
Revenue TTM
$12.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.5B
Net Margin
12.6%
HLT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.20/$2.05
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.11/$2.06
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.08/$2.02
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.01/$1.98
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.20/$2.05 | +7.3% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.11/$2.06 | +2.4% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.08/$2.02 | +3.0% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.01/$1.98 | +1.5% | $2.9B/$2.9B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$13.4B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$14.9B
+10.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.50
+27.9% YoY
FY2
$9.82
+15.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 17.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HLT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HLT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reimbursement Revenue
65.6%
+10.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
79.1%
+8.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reimbursement Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 65.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 79.1%, up 8.5% YoY.
HLT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $333 — implies +4.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HLT
51.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+104% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HLT
51.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+165% premium
vs HLT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
51.1x
vs
5Y Average
52.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
34.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+81%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+128%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
51.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+104%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+165%
5Y Avg
52.8x
-3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+97%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+164%
5Y Avg
28.9x
+4%
Price/FCF
35.1x
S&P 500
21.1x
+67%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+140%
5Y Avg
29.5x
+19%
Price/Sales
5.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+89%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+727%
5Y Avg
5.5x
+8%
Dividend Yield
0.19%
S&P 500
1.87%
-90%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-91%
5Y Avg
0.28%
-32%
| Metric | HLT | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HLT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.5x | 19.1x+81% | 15.1x+128% | — |
| Trailing PE | 51.1x | 25.1x+104% | 19.3x+165% | 52.8x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.9x | 15.2x+97% | 11.3x+164% | 28.9x |
| Price/FCF | 35.1x | 21.1x+67% | 14.6x+140% | 29.5x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 5.9x | 3.1x+89% | 0.7x+727% | 5.5x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.19% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 0.28% |
HLT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHLT Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
HLT generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 17.8% margin — 24.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+8.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.65
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$970M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
6.7× FCF
~6.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.8%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
4.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
9.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
228M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHLT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic & Travel Demand Volatility
Hilton's performance is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, consumer travel preferences, and global health events. A downturn can reduce occupancy rates and average daily rates, while inflation and supply chain disruptions can raise operating costs.
High Risk
High Leverage & Valuation Risk
Hilton carries significant debt, limiting financial flexibility. Analysts note high P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples relative to peers, raising concerns about overvaluation and balance‑sheet leverage.
Medium
Third‑Party Franchise Dependence
Hilton relies on franchisees and property owners for expansion. Weakening relationships or financial distress among partners could curtail growth and reduce revenue streams.
Medium
Geopolitical & Currency Exposure
Global operations expose Hilton to geopolitical instability and currency exchange fluctuations. Interest‑rate volatility also impacts financing costs, potentially eroding profitability.
Medium
Technology Adoption Gap
Rapid AI and digital innovations threaten Hilton's competitive edge. Competitors that deploy new tech faster could capture market share, while reliance on third‑party booking platforms may erode direct revenue.
Medium
Development Pipeline Uncertainty
Hilton's growth hinges on real‑estate development and regulatory approvals. Delays, financing constraints, or project cancellations could slow network expansion and revenue growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HLT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Consistent EPS Growth
Hilton is projected to deliver significant EPS growth driven by new unit development, RevPAR normalization, and robust share repurchase programs. The company’s track record of outperforming the broader market and the US hospitality industry underscores this trajectory.
Asset‑Light, High‑Margin Model
Hilton’s asset‑light model, focused on franchising and management, yields higher margins and resilience to market shocks. Its aggressive global expansion and emphasis on lifestyle and luxury offerings position it to capture premium travel demand.
Shareholder Capital Return
Hilton consistently returns capital through dividends and a substantial share repurchase authorization, boosting EPS. The company’s aggressive share repurchase program is expected to contribute to EPS growth.
Outperformance Since IPO
Hilton’s stock has delivered strong returns since its IPO, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. This historical performance reflects the company’s robust business model and growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HLT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$312.77
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$235.99
+32.5% from the low
52-Week High
$344.75
-9.3% from the high
1 Month
+1.92%
3 Month
+1.31%
YTD
+6.8%
1 Year
+30.9%
3Y CAGR
+29.3%
5Y CAGR
+20.6%
10Y CAGR
+21.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HLT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.5x
vs 25.1x median
+38% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +3.4% median
+172% above peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 13.4% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $71.2B | 34.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +8.2% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $93.9B | 30.6x | +8.1% | 10.1% | Hold | +5.1% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $15.5B | 50.3x | +25.0% | -0.5% | Hold | +17.8% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $21.3B | 25.1x | -1.8% | 13.7% | Buy | +6.2% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.0B | 16.7x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +22.1% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $4.7B | 14.4x | +3.4% | 21.5% | Hold | +6.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HLT Dividend and Capital Return
HLT returns capital mainly through $3.3B/year in buybacks (4.6% buyback yield), with a modest 0.19% dividend — combining for 4.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.6%
Dividend Yield
0.19%
Payout Ratio
9.8%
How HLT Splits Its Return
Buyback 4.6%
Dividend 0.19%Buybacks 4.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.1%
5Y Div CAGR
32.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
228M
At 4.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% |
| 2024 | $0.60 | 0.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% |
| 2023 | $0.60 | +33.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| 2022 | $0.45 | — | 4.5% | 4.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsHLT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $338, implying +8.2% from the current price of $313.
02What is the HLT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HLT is $338 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $373 (+19.3% from today), and the low-end target is $304 (-2.8%). The base case model target is $502.
03Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock overvalued in 2026?
HLT trades at 34.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HLT in 2026 are: (1) Economic & Travel Demand Volatility — Hilton's performance is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles, consumer travel preferences, and global health events. (2) High Leverage & Valuation Risk — Hilton carries significant debt, limiting financial flexibility. (3) Third‑Party Franchise Dependence — Hilton relies on franchisees and property owners for expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HLT will report consensus revenue of $13.4B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.50 (+27.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.9B in revenue.
06When does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HLT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. generate?
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (HLT) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.8%. HLT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($3.3B TTM).