Upside case
Bull case
$706+78.2%
MAR would need investors to value it at roughly 61x earnings — about 27x more generous than today's 34x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
52
analysts
23 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering MAR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
28
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$393
-0.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$338 – $706
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
34.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $104.5B
MAR price targets
Three scenarios for where MAR stock could go
Current
~$396
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $396
Bear
$338
Base
$536
Bull
$706
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$536+35.3%
At 46x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$338-14.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push MAR down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marriott International, Inc.
MAR · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
Marriott International is a global hospitality company that operates, franchises, and licenses hotels, residential properties, and timeshare resorts under 30 distinct brands. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees (roughly 60% of total), management fees from operated hotels, and direct ownership of some properties. Its key competitive advantage is its massive global footprint—the world's largest hotel portfolio—and powerful brand portfolio spanning luxury to economy segments, creating significant network effects and customer loyalty.
Market Cap
$104.5B
Revenue TTM
$26.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
9.7%
MAR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.61
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.47/$2.38
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.60
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.56
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.61 | +1.5% | $6.7B/$6.7B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47/$2.38 | +3.8% | $6.5B/$6.5B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.58/$2.60 | -0.8% | $6.7B/$6.7B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.72/$2.56 | +6.3% | $6.7B/$6.6B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.2B
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$29.7B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.32
+18.0% YoY
FY2
$12.63
+11.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 11.7%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.03
Expected Revenue
$7.2B
MAR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MAR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $32.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reimbursements
60.8%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reimbursements is the largest disclosed segment at 60.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.7% YoY.
International Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MAR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $341 — implies -14.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MAR
41.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+71% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MAR
41.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+97% premium
vs MAR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
41.7x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
+32% premium
Forward PE
34.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+82%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+109%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
41.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+71%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+97%
5Y Avg
31.7x
+32%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+80%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+124%
5Y Avg
22.1x
+24%
Price/FCF
40.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+94%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+157%
5Y Avg
35.1x
+14%
Price/Sales
4.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+29%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+472%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+29%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
S&P 500
1.91%
-65%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-69%
5Y Avg
0.81%
-17%
| Metric | MAR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 34.2x | 18.8x+82% | 16.3x+109% | — |
| Trailing PE | 41.7x | 24.4x+71% | 21.2x+97% | 31.7x+32% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.3x | 15.2x+80% | 12.2x+124% | 22.1x+24% |
| Price/FCF | 40.1x | 20.7x+94% | 15.6x+157% | 35.1x+14% |
| Price/Sales | 4.0x | 3.1x+29% | 0.7x+472% | 3.1x+29% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.67% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.81% |
MAR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMAR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MAR generates $3.1B in free cash flow at a 11.7% margin — 25.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$26.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.59
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$358M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.4× FCF
~5.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
3.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
264M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Legal Risks
Facing a new class action lawsuit over alleged exposure to toxic fragrance compounds at its properties.
Medium
Competitive Risks
Potential challenges from competitors like Hilton and others in the hospitality industry.
Medium
Economic Risks
Exposure to economic cycles impacting RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) and overall performance.
High Risk
Cybersecurity Risks
Cybersecurity threats could disrupt operations and damage customer trust.
Medium
Climate Risks
Climate-related risks could affect property operations and increase costs.
Lower
Loyalty Program Risks
Dependence on the Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program as a structural moat may face challenges.
Medium
Operational Risks
Asset-light fee model may face pressures from changing market conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MAR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Brand strength and network moat
Marriott's strong brand and network moat are highlighted, emphasizing franchise durability and customer stickiness driven by the Marriott Bonvoy program.
Franchise model durability
The company's franchise model provides resilience and scalability, contributing to long-term growth and profitability.
Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program
The Bonvoy program enhances customer retention and owner stickiness, driving recurring revenue and brand loyalty.
Diverse hotel portfolio
Marriott offers a wide range of hotel options, including luxury, resorts, extended stay, and pet-friendly hotels, catering to diverse customer needs.
Vacation ownership growth
Marriott Vacation Club provides additional revenue streams through vacation ownership, expanding its market reach and customer base.
Institutional investment appeal
The company's wide moat and strong brand make it an attractive investment, though it's not among the top hedge fund picks.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MAR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$396.20
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$253.76
+56.1% from the low
52-Week High
$410.98
-3.6% from the high
1 Month
+10.31%
3 Month
+22.85%
YTD
+26.4%
1 Year
+53.8%
3Y CAGR
+31.6%
5Y CAGR
+23.3%
10Y CAGR
+19.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MAR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
34.2x
vs 30.0x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.1%
vs +5.1% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
9.7%
vs 13.4% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $25.7B | 30.0x | +5.1% | 13.7% | Buy | -7.1% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $19.3B | 57.2x | +13.2% | -0.5% | Hold | -3.5% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.6x | +1.6% | 13.4% | Buy | +15.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $5.3B | 16.2x | +3.9% | 21.5% | Hold | -4.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MAR Dividend and Capital Return
MAR returns capital mainly through $3.3B/year in buybacks (3.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.67% dividend — combining for 3.8% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.2%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
Payout Ratio
27.6%
How MAR Splits Its Return
Div 0.67%
Buyback 3.2%
Dividend 0.67%Buybacks 3.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
38.2%
5Y Div CAGR
40.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
264M
At 3.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.40 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.64 | +9.5% | 3.9% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | $2.41 | +23.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $1.96 | +96.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | — | 5.3% | 6.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $393, implying -0.8% from the current price of $396. The bear case scenario is $338 and the bull case is $706.
02What is the MAR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MAR is $393 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $446 (+12.6% from today), and the low-end target is $350 (-11.7%). The base case model target is $536.
03Is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MAR trades at 34.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MAR in 2026 are: (1) Legal Risks — Facing a new class action lawsuit over alleged exposure to toxic fragrance compounds at its properties. (2) Cybersecurity Risks — Cybersecurity threats could disrupt operations and damage customer trust. (3) Competitive Risks — Potential challenges from competitors like Hilton and others in the hospitality industry. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marriott International, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MAR will report consensus revenue of $28.2B (+6.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.32 (+18.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.7B in revenue.
06When does Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) report its next earnings?
Marriott International, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $3.03 and revenue of $7.2B. Over recent quarters, MAR has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Marriott International, Inc. generate?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.7%. MAR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($3.3B TTM).