Upside case
Bull case
$851+137.1%
MAR would need investors to value it at roughly 74x earnings — about 43x more generous than today's 31x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
52
analysts
23 bullish · 1 bearish · 52 covering MAR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
28
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$373
+3.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$55 – $851
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
31.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $95.1B
MAR price targets
Three scenarios for where MAR stock could go
Current
~$359
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $359
Bear
$55
Base
$487
Bull
$851
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$487+35.7%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$55-84.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 26x multiple contraction could push MAR down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Marriott International, Inc.
MAR · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
Marriott International is a global hospitality company that operates, franchises, and licenses hotels, residential properties, and timeshare resorts under 30 distinct brands. It generates revenue primarily through franchise fees (roughly 60% of total), management fees from operated hotels, and direct ownership of some properties. Its key competitive advantage is its massive global footprint—the world's largest hotel portfolio—and powerful brand portfolio spanning luxury to economy segments, creating significant network effects and customer loyalty.
Market Cap
$95.1B
Revenue TTM
$21.7B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
11.9%
MAR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.65/$2.61
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.47/$2.38
Revenue
$6.5B/$6.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.60
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.56
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.65/$2.61 | +1.5% | $6.7B/$6.7B | +1.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.47/$2.38 | +3.8% | $6.5B/$6.5B | +0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.58/$2.60 | -0.8% | $6.7B/$6.7B | +0.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.72/$2.56 | +6.3% | $6.7B/$6.6B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.0B
+8.1% YoY
FY2
$30.0B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.41
+19.1% YoY
FY2
$12.88
+12.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.2B
FCF Margin: 14.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.54
Expected Revenue
$6.6B
MAR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MAR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $32.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Reimbursements
60.8%
+3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
International Segment
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Reimbursements is the largest disclosed segment at 60.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.7% YoY.
International Segment is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
MAR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $316 — implies -11.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
11.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MAR
37.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+50% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
MAR
37.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+93% premium
vs MAR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.8x
vs
5Y Average
31.7x
+19% premium
Forward PE
31.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+63%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+104%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
+50%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+93%
5Y Avg
31.7x
+19%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
25.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+65%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+122%
5Y Avg
22.1x
+14%
Price/FCF
36.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
+71%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+143%
5Y Avg
35.1x
+4%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+16%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+411%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+17%
Dividend Yield
0.74%
S&P 500
1.88%
-60%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-65%
5Y Avg
0.81%
-8%
| Metric | MAR | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg MAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 31.0x | 19.1x+63% | 15.2x+104% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.8x | 25.2x+50% | 19.6x+93% | 31.7x+19% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.2x | 15.3x+65% | 11.4x+122% | 22.1x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 36.5x | 21.3x+71% | 15.0x+143% | 35.1x |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+16% | 0.7x+411% | 3.1x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.81% |
MAR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMAR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MAR generates $3.2B in free cash flow at a 14.9% margin — 25.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-14.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
6.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
25.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$358M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$16.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.2× FCF
~5.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
3.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
265M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Operational Risks
Marriott’s reliance on franchise and management agreements exposes it to premature termination, disagreements with hotel owners, or failure to meet performance criteria, which can erode revenue and dilute brand standards. The company has limited day‑to‑day control over most franchised properties, heightening the risk of guest‑satisfaction issues.
High Risk
Market Volatility & Geopolitical Risks
Economic downturns, geopolitical events, and health crises can sharply reduce travel demand, directly impacting Marriott’s revenue and profitability. Rapid shifts in travel patterns and consumer preferences require swift operational adjustments.
High Risk
Financial & Balance Sheet Risks
Marriott carries elevated and rising debt levels and has experienced negative equity in recent years, limiting financial flexibility if conditions deteriorate. Certain management agreements obligate Marriott to fund shortfalls if hotels fail to hit specified operating profit targets.
Medium
International Operations
As international revenue grows, Marriott faces regulatory compliance challenges, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, especially in China where policy shifts are rapid and uncertain.
Medium
Brand Reputation
The company’s performance depends on the quality and reputation of its brands; any decline in brand perception could reduce market share, hurt financial results, and impair future growth.
Medium
Technology & Innovation
Marriott’s focus on technology upgrades and digital channels is counterbalanced by cybersecurity and data‑privacy risks, which could lead to operational disruptions or regulatory penalties.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MAR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Marriott Bonvoy Loyalty Ecosystem
Marriott’s Bonvoy program drives recurring demand and customer stickiness, creating strong network effects that attract hotel owners and increase value for travelers. Recent partnership with MGM Resorts expands the ecosystem’s reach, reinforcing its competitive moat.
Asset‑Light, Long‑Term Franchise Model
Marriott focuses on management and franchise agreements that can last 20 to 50 years, locking in prime locations and creating high barriers to entry. This structure delivers durable customer loyalty and high franchise stickiness, fueling scalable fee-based cash generation.
Global Room Pipeline & Wellness JV
The company boasts a robust global pipeline of rooms that underpins future revenue growth. A joint venture with Lefay targets luxury wellness resorts, tapping the rising demand for health‑oriented travel experiences.
Earnings Growth & Fee Revenue Guidance
Analysts project rising earnings per share, supported by gross fee revenue guidance tied to the large room pipeline and co‑branded credit card agreements. Planned share buybacks compress the denominator, potentially boosting EPS further.
Brand Diversification & Conversion Strategy
Marriott operates a broad portfolio of brands across market segments, enhancing resilience. Recent conversions, such as the reopening of ARC Hotel in Washington DC, illustrate the strategy of leveraging mid‑scale growth alongside premium and luxury offerings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MAR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$359.06
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$250.01
+43.6% from the low
52-Week High
$380.00
-5.5% from the high
1 Month
+6.23%
3 Month
+7.75%
YTD
+14.6%
1 Year
+42.5%
3Y CAGR
+26.4%
5Y CAGR
+20.3%
10Y CAGR
+17.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MAR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
31.0x
vs 25.7x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.1%
vs +3.4% median
+137% above peer median
Net Margin
11.9%
vs 13.4% median
-11% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $95.1B | 31.0x | +8.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +3.7% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $73.2B | 35.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +5.3% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $21.9B | 25.7x | -1.8% | 13.7% | Buy | +3.5% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $16.2B | 52.6x | +25.0% | -0.5% | Hold | +12.7% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.3x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
CHH CHH Choice Hotels International, Inc. | $4.8B | 14.8x | +3.4% | 21.5% | Hold | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MAR Dividend and Capital Return
MAR returns 0.8% total yield, led by a 0.75% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.75%
Payout Ratio
27.6%
How MAR Splits Its Return
Div 0.75%
Dividend 0.75%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
38.2%
5Y Div CAGR
40.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
265M
At 3.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.67 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.64 | +9.5% | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $2.41 | +23.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| 2023 | $1.96 | +96.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $1.00 | — | 5.3% | 6.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsMAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $373, implying +3.7% from the current price of $359. The bear case scenario is $55 and the bull case is $851.
02What is the MAR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MAR is $373 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $400 (+11.4% from today), and the low-end target is $343 (-4.5%). The base case model target is $487.
03Is Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock overvalued in 2026?
MAR trades at 31.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MAR in 2026 are: (1) Operational Risks — Marriott’s reliance on franchise and management agreements exposes it to premature termination, disagreements with hotel owners, or failure to meet performance criteria, which can erode revenue and dilute brand standards. (2) Market Volatility & Geopolitical Risks — Economic downturns, geopolitical events, and health crises can sharply reduce travel demand, directly impacting Marriott’s revenue and profitability. (3) Financial & Balance Sheet Risks — Marriott carries elevated and rising debt levels and has experienced negative equity in recent years, limiting financial flexibility if conditions deteriorate. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Marriott International, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MAR will report consensus revenue of $28.0B (+8.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.41 (+19.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.0B in revenue.
06When does Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) report its next earnings?
Marriott International, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $2.54 and revenue of $6.6B. Over recent quarters, MAR has beaten EPS estimates 67% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Marriott International, Inc. generate?
Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) generated $3.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.9%. MAR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.8% yield) and share repurchases ($3.3B TTM).