Upside case
Bull case
$46+126.3%
NCLH would need investors to value it at roughly 28x earnings — about 16x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering NCLH
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$21
+4.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$22 – $46
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.4B
NCLH price targets
Three scenarios for where NCLH stock could go
Current
~$20
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $20
Bear
$22
Base
$35
Bull
$46
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$35+71.8%
At 21x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$22+8.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push NCLH down roughly 8% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings operates a global cruise line business with three distinct brands—Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises, and Regent Seven Seas Cruises—offering voyages across worldwide destinations. It generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales (roughly 70% of total) and onboard spending on dining, beverages, entertainment, and shore excursions (about 30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its differentiated brand portfolio—from mass-market Norwegian to luxury Regent—and its modern fleet featuring innovative amenities like Norwegian's "Freestyle Cruising" concept.
Market Cap
$9.4B
Revenue TTM
$10.0B
Net Income TTM
$568M
Net Margin
5.7%
NCLH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+19.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.52
Revenue
$2.5B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.20/$1.16
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.28/$0.26
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.23/$0.15
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.51/$0.52 | -1.9% | $2.5B/$3.0B | -16.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.20/$1.16 | +3.4% | $2.9B/$2.3B | +25.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.28/$0.26 | +5.8% | $2.2B/$2.3B | -4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.23/$0.15 | +53.3% | $2.3B/$2.4B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.7B
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$11.2B
+4.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.43
+17.7% YoY
FY2
$1.63
+13.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$949M
FCF Margin: -9.5%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.39
Expected Revenue
$2.6B
NCLH beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
NCLH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $9.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Passenger ticket
68.0%
+4.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
57.5%
+6.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Passenger ticket is the largest disclosed segment at 68.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.2% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 57.5%, up 6.2% YoY.
NCLH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $35 — implies +70.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
70.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NCLH
22.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
7% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
NCLH
22.7x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+7% premium
vs NCLH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.7x
vs
5Y Average
29.9x
24% discount
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-34%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-24%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-7%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+7%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-24%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
-43%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-29%
5Y Avg
10.8x
-19%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
—
5Y Avg
15.8x
—
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-69%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+37%
5Y Avg
3.2x
-71%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NCLH | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg NCLH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 18.8x-34% | 16.3x-24% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.7x | 24.4x | 21.2x | 29.9x-24% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.7x | 15.2x-43% | 12.2x-29% | 10.8x-19% |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 15.6x | 15.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-69% | 0.7x+37% | 3.2x-71% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
NCLH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNCLH Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for NCLH are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+6.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
43.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.22
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$949M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-9.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$210M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$14.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
27.0%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.3%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$24M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
459M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageNCLH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Debt leverage
The bear case centers on the company's high debt leverage, which poses significant financial risk.
Medium
Industry competition
Despite high demand for cruise vacations, the company faces intense competition from other cruise line stocks.
Lower
Operational risks
The company's extensive fleet and global operations expose it to potential operational disruptions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NCLH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Post-COVID recovery potential
The company has shown strong recovery post-COVID, with stock price appreciation of approximately 31% since previous coverage.
Attractive valuation metrics
NCLH's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 15.50 and 8.51 respectively indicate potential undervaluation.
Revenue growth upside
Bull case scenarios project revenue growth up to +12%, indicating significant upside potential.
Debt profile improvement
Ambitious turnaround goals could lead to a healthier debt profile, enhancing financial stability.
Strong cruise demand
Continued demand for cruise vacations supports growth, with bookings available to diverse destinations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NCLH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$20.44
52W Range Position
47%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.53
+40.7% from the low
52-Week High
$27.18
-24.8% from the high
1 Month
+33.95%
3 Month
+3.23%
YTD
-10.3%
1 Year
+11.1%
3Y CAGR
+1.9%
5Y CAGR
-7.6%
10Y CAGR
-7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NCLH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 18.0x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.1%
vs +9.9% median
-28% below peer median
Net Margin
5.7%
vs 10.4% median
-45% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NCL NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $9.4B | 12.5x | +7.1% | 5.7% | Buy | +4.6% |
CCL CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $38.2B | 13.9x | +8.2% | 10.4% | Buy | +14.5% |
RCL RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $84.5B | 18.0x | +9.0% | 24.4% | Buy | +10.4% |
VIK VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | $43.2B | 29.3x | +11.8% | 18.0% | Buy | +1.9% |
ONE ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. | $188M | 22.0x | +9.9% | -5.9% | Buy | +23.6% |
HGV HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | $4.3B | 9.6x | +11.4% | 3.8% | Hold | -1.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NCLH Dividend and Capital Return
NCLH returns 0.3% annually — null% through dividends and 0.3% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$24M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
459M
FAQ
7 questionsNCLH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $21, implying +4.6% from the current price of $20. The bear case scenario is $22 and the bull case is $46.
02What is the NCLH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NCLH is $21 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+46.8% from today), and the low-end target is $14 (-31.5%). The base case model target is $35.
03Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) stock overvalued in 2026?
NCLH trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NCLH in 2026 are: (1) Debt leverage — The bear case centers on the company's high debt leverage, which poses significant financial risk. (2) Industry competition — Despite high demand for cruise vacations, the company faces intense competition from other cruise line stocks. (3) Operational risks — The company's extensive fleet and global operations expose it to potential operational disruptions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NCLH will report consensus revenue of $10.7B (+7.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.43 (+17.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.2B in revenue.
06When does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) report its next earnings?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.39 and revenue of $2.6B. Over recent quarters, NCLH has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. generate?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) had a free cash outflow of $949M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.5%. NCLH returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($24M TTM).