Upside case
Bull case
$432+38.2%
RCL would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
52
analysts
25 bullish · 6 bearish · 52 covering RCL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
21
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$345
+10.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$206 – $432
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $84.5B
RCL price targets
Three scenarios for where RCL stock could go
Current
~$313
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $313
Bear
$206
Base
$328
Bull
$432
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$328+4.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RCL — at roughly 19x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$206-33.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push RCL down roughly 34% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
RCL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalTravel ServicesDecember year-end
Royal Caribbean Cruises is a global cruise line operator that owns and manages a fleet of ships across multiple brands catering to different market segments. It generates revenue primarily from passenger ticket sales — which account for roughly 75% of total revenue — and onboard spending on dining, beverages, excursions, and other services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, modern fleet with innovative amenities — like private islands and entertainment complexes — and strong brand loyalty across its portfolio.
Market Cap
$84.5B
Revenue TTM
$18.4B
Net Income TTM
$4.5B
Net Margin
24.4%
RCL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.38/$4.09
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$5.75/$5.69
Revenue
$5.1B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.80/$2.80
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.60/$3.24
Revenue
$4.5B/$4.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.38/$4.09 | +7.1% | $4.5B/$4.6B | -0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.75/$5.69 | +1.1% | $5.1B/$5.2B | -0.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.80/$2.80 | +0.0% | $4.3B/$4.3B | -0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.60/$3.24 | +11.1% | $4.5B/$4.5B | -0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.0B
+9.0% YoY
FY2
$21.5B
+7.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$16.39
-1.0% YoY
FY2
$17.38
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 7.5%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$3.91
Expected Revenue
$4.8B
RCL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RCL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cruise Itinerary
95.2%
+8.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
67.6%
+8.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cruise Itinerary is the largest disclosed segment at 95.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.8% YoY.
North America is the largest reported region at 67.6%, up 8.9% YoY.
RCL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $251 — implies -19.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
19.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RCL
20.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
18% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RCL
20.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
5% discount
vs RCL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.0x
vs
5Y Average
19.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-4%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+11%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-18%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-5%
5Y Avg
19.8x
+1%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+7%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+34%
5Y Avg
24.4x
-33%
Price/FCF
68.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+230%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+340%
5Y Avg
52.3x
+31%
Price/Sales
4.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+52%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+575%
5Y Avg
5.0x
-5%
Dividend Yield
0.31%
S&P 500
1.91%
-84%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-86%
5Y Avg
0.26%
+21%
| Metric | RCL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RCL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.0x | 18.8x | 16.3x+11% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.0x | 24.4x-18% | 21.2x | 19.8x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.3x | 15.2x | 12.2x+34% | 24.4x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 68.4x | 20.7x+230% | 15.6x+340% | 52.3x+31% |
| Price/Sales | 4.7x | 3.1x+52% | 0.7x+575% | 5.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 0.31% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.26% |
RCL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRCL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RCL 12.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$18.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
47.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
24.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$16.55
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$825M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$21.8B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
15.9× FCF
~15.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
44.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (12.2%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
6.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
271M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRCL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Fuel Cost Pressure
Reduction in full-year profit forecast due to higher fuel costs impacting margins.
Medium
Sector-Specific Challenges
Stock decline amid broader market gains suggests industry-wide headwinds.
Medium
Capacity Expansion Risks
Fleet modernization and expansion plans may strain capital expenditures and operational execution.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Recent stock underperformance despite strategic announcements reflects potential investor caution.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RCL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong business moat
Royal Caribbean has a strong moat, as indicated by its business model and financial snapshot, which supports long-term growth.
High-quality cyclical compounder
RCL is considered a high-quality cyclical compounder with strong demand, expanding margins, and robust adjusted EPS guidance for 2026.
Record demand momentum
The company has achieved record demand, with two-thirds of its 2026 capacity already booked, signaling strong consumer interest.
Attractive valuation
RCL's stock is viewed as attractive with a fair value estimate of $250 per share, supported by its growth trajectory and financial health.
Expanding margins
Royal Caribbean is experiencing margin expansion, driven by operational efficiencies and cost management despite fleet expansion and private island development.
Institutional investor confidence
Capital Research Global Investors holds a significant 10.5% stake in RCL, reflecting strong institutional confidence in the company's prospects.
2026 growth acceleration
Royal Caribbean's growth engine is accelerating into 2026, with robust bookings and strategic investments driving future performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RCL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$312.51
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$232.10
+34.6% from the low
52-Week High
$366.50
-14.7% from the high
1 Month
+23.72%
3 Month
+15.95%
YTD
+10.3%
1 Year
+16.7%
3Y CAGR
+47.9%
5Y CAGR
+29.5%
10Y CAGR
+15.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RCL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.0x
vs 29.3x median
-38% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.0%
vs +7.8% median
+16% above peer median
Net Margin
24.4%
vs 10.4% median
+135% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCL RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $84.5B | 18.0x | +9.0% | 24.4% | Buy | +10.4% |
CCL CCL Carnival Corporation & plc | $38.2B | 13.9x | +8.2% | 10.4% | Buy | +14.5% |
NCL NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. | $9.4B | 12.5x | +7.1% | 5.7% | Buy | +4.6% |
VIK VIK Viking Holdings Ltd | $43.2B | 29.3x | +11.8% | 18.0% | Buy | +1.9% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RCL Dividend and Capital Return
RCL returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (1.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.31% dividend — combining for 1.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
0.31%
Payout Ratio
6.2%
How RCL Splits Its Return
Div 0.31%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 0.31%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.6%
5Y Div CAGR
35.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
271M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $3.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.50 | +268.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% |
| 2024 | $0.95 | — | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| 2020 | $0.78 | -73.6% | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| 2019 | $2.96 | +13.8% | 0.4% | 2.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsRCL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $345, implying +10.4% from the current price of $313. The bear case scenario is $206 and the bull case is $432.
02What is the RCL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RCL is $345 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $425 (+36.0% from today), and the low-end target is $280 (-10.4%). The base case model target is $328.
03Is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) stock overvalued in 2026?
RCL trades at 18.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RCL in 2026 are: (1) Fuel Cost Pressure — Reduction in full-year profit forecast due to higher fuel costs impacting margins. (2) Sector-Specific Challenges — Stock decline amid broader market gains suggests industry-wide headwinds. (3) Capacity Expansion Risks — Fleet modernization and expansion plans may strain capital expenditures and operational execution. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RCL will report consensus revenue of $20.0B (+9.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $16.39 (-1.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $21.5B in revenue.
06When does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) report its next earnings?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $3.91 and revenue of $4.8B. Over recent quarters, RCL has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. generate?
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.5%. RCL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).