Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$92.25
Price Target
$144.84
Target Range
$60.75 — $167.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E13.2x
Trailing P/E17.3x
Forward PEG0.13
Implied Growth+25.8%
Median Target$155.00
Analyst Spread73.4%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$61
-34.1%
Consensus
$145
+57.0%
Bull Case
$167
+81.0%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 55/100
Bear$48
Base$132
Bull$322
CHDN Price Target Analysis
Updated May 7, 2026As of May 7, 2026, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $144.84, based on estimates from 23 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $92.25, this represents a potential upside of +57.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.43B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $60.75 to a high of $167.00, representing a 73% spread in expectations. The median target of $155.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 23 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,0 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, CHDN trades at a trailing P/E of 17.3x and forward P/E of 13.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.13 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +25.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $131.67, with bear and bull scenarios of $47.88 and $322.00 respectively. Model confidence stands at 55/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+47.1%
Avg Forward P/E34.9x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PENNPENN Entertainment, Inc. | $2.2B | $16.75 | $19.88 | +18.7% | Buy | 22.9x | 47 |
 BYDBoyd Gaming Corporation | $6.4B | $85.15 | $95.00 | +11.6% | Buy | 11.9x | 38 |
 RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc. | $3.1B | $52.93 | $71.44 | +35.0% | Buy | 17.2x | 30 |
 DKNGDraftKings Inc. | $11.9B | $23.92 | $36.88 | +54.2% | Buy | 94.0x | 48 |
 CZRCaesars Entertainment, Inc. | $5.7B | $27.76 | $30.57 | +10.1% | Buy | — | 30 |
 MGMMGM Resorts International | $9.8B | $38.21 | $39.71 | +3.9% | Buy | 22.2x | 36 |
 FLUTFlutter Entertainment plc | $17.3B | $99.11 | $227.86 | +129.9% | Buy | 16.2x | 24 |
 RSIRush Street Interactive, Inc. | $3.0B | $27.86 | $30.40 | +9.1% | Buy | 46.5x | 13 |
 GENIGenius Sports Limited | $1.1B | $4.40 | $12.10 | +175.0% | Buy | 48.4x | 19 |
 BALYBally's Corporation | $647M | $13.17 | $16.33 | +24.0% | Hold | — | 12 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonCHDN — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying CHDN stock.
What is the CHDN stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for CHDN is $144.84, representing 57.0% upside from the current price of $92.25. With 23 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is CHDN a buy, sell, or hold?
CHDN has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 23 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 23 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $144.84 implies 57.0% upside from current levels.
Is CHDN stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 13.2421x, CHDN trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $144.84 implies 57.0% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can CHDN stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $167 for CHDN, while the most conservative target is $60.75. The consensus of $144.84 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $322 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover CHDN stock?
CHDN is well covered by analysts, with 23 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 23 have Buy ratings, 0 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the CHDN stock forecast?
The 12-month CHDN stock forecast based on 23 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $144.84, with estimates ranging from $60.75 (bear case) to $167 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $132, with bear/bull scenarios of $48/$322.
What is CHDN's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates CHDN's fair value at $132 (base case), with a bear case of $48 and bull case of $322. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 55/100.
What is CHDN's forward P/E ratio?
CHDN trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 17.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy CHDN stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on CHDN, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $144.84 price target (57.0% upside). 23 of 23 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do CHDN price targets vary so much?
CHDN analyst price targets range from $60.75 to $167, a 73% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $144.84 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $48-$322 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.