Upside case
Bull case
$306+244.7%
CMA would need investors to value it at roughly 57x earnings — about 40x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Comerica Incorporated (CMA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
62
analysts
15 bullish · 12 bearish · 62 covering CMA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
15
Hold
35
Sell
11
Strong Sell
1
Consensus Target
$103
+16.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$70 – $306
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
62
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.3B
CMA price targets
Three scenarios for where CMA stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $89
Bear
$70
Base
$102
Bull
$306
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$102+14.7%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$70-21.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push CMA down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Comerica Incorporated
CMA · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Comerica is a regional bank holding company that provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services primarily in Texas, California, and Michigan. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from loans and leases (about 70% of total revenue) supplemented by non-interest income from fees for wealth management, treasury services, and card processing. Its key advantage is its deep regional presence and specialized focus on middle-market commercial banking—particularly in energy, technology, and healthcare sectors—where it builds long-term client relationships.
Market Cap
$11.3B
Net Income TTM
$723M
CMA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.16
Revenue
$829M/$831M
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.42/$1.25
Revenue
$849M/$844M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.35/$1.31
Revenue
$838M/$843M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.28
Revenue
$850M/$849M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.25/$1.16 | +7.8% | $829M/$831M | -0.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.42/$1.25 | +13.6% | $849M/$844M | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.35/$1.31 | +3.1% | $838M/$843M | -0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.28 | -0.8% | $850M/$849M | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.4B
-8.8% YoY
FY2
$4.3B
-2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$6.37
+17.2% YoY
FY2
$6.07
-4.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$413M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
CMA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CMA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $772M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Business Bank Member
49.0%
-1.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Business Bank Member is the largest disclosed segment at 49.0% of FY 2024 revenue, down 1.6% YoY.
CMA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $79 — implies -10.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CMA
16.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
34% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
CMA
16.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+25% premium
vs CMA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.8x
vs
5Y Average
11.2x
+50% premium
Forward PE
16.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-13%
Financial Services
10.5x
+57%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-34%
Financial Services
13.4x
+25%
5Y Avg
11.2x
+50%
PEG Ratio
1.86x
S&P 500
1.75x
+7%
Financial Services
1.03x
+82%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+5%
Financial Services
11.4x
+41%
5Y Avg
9.1x
+76%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
15.6x
—
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Financial Services
2.3x
+5%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+0%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
4.15%
—
| Metric | CMA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg CMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.5x | 19.1x-13% | 10.5x+57% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.8x | 25.2x-34% | 13.4x+25% | 11.2x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.86x | 1.75x | 1.03x+82% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.1x | 15.3x | 11.4x+41% | 9.1x+76% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 15.6x |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 2.3x | 2.4x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 4.15% |
CMA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCMA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
CMA generates 9.4% ROE and 0.9% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.44
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$866M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
133M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageCMA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Credit Risk
Comerica has a significant concentration of loans in commercial, real estate, and energy sectors, which exposes it to heightened credit risk. A default by borrowers in these sectors could lead to substantial financial losses.
High Risk
Liquidity Risk
Concerns about Comerica's ability to meet short-term financial obligations have been raised, particularly with weaker-than-anticipated average deposit expectations in the second quarter of 2025. This indicates potential liquidity issues that could impact financial stability.
Medium
Regulatory and Legal Challenges
Comerica faces legal challenges, including a lawsuit from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) regarding its management of Direct Express benefits cards. Non-compliance with laws and regulations could result in significant penalties and enforcement actions.
Medium
Revenue Decline and Margin Pressure
The bank's revenues are under pressure from a challenging macroeconomic environment, raising concerns about its ability to maintain its net interest margin (NIM). This could adversely affect profitability and investor confidence.
Medium
Slower Growth Prospects
Forecasts indicate that Comerica's revenue growth will be slower compared to the broader US market. This raises valuation concerns, especially when combined with modest earnings growth expectations.
Lower
Market Risk
Fluctuations in market prices and interest rates pose risks that could lead to financial losses for Comerica. Changes in interest rates can significantly impact the bank's financial health.
Lower
Operational Risk
Operational risk arises from failures in internal processes, systems, or daily business activities. Disruptions due to unforeseen events or issues with internal controls could negatively affect operations.
Lower
Industry-Specific Risks
As a financial institution, Comerica is subject to industry-specific risks, including economic downturns, technological changes, and competitive pressures unique to the banking sector. These factors could impact its overall performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CMA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Loan Growth and Demand
Comerica has demonstrated stronger-than-expected average loans in Q2 2025, indicating robust demand for credit and effective loan origination strategies. The bank maintains a healthy loan-to-deposit ratio of 82%, showcasing efficient management of its deposit base.
Stable Non-Interest Deposits
Non-interest-bearing deposits remain stable at 38% of total deposits, which helps in generating funding without incurring interest expenses. This stability contributes to the bank's overall financial health and operational efficiency.
Positive Stock Performance
Comerica's stock has shown positive momentum, with a 90-day share price return of 14.59% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 40.36%. In the past year, CMA shares have surged 41%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
Strategic Partnerships and Growth
Comerica is actively marketing impactful partnerships, such as its alignment with the Detroit Lions, enhancing enterprise visibility and brand perception. The bank's strategic pivot towards sustainable business growth suggests a forward-looking approach.
Analyst Upgrades and Sentiment
Analysts have noted recent target increases and ratings upgrades, with expectations around potential acquisitions being key drivers for updated views. This positive sentiment is further supported by HoldCo Asset Management establishing a significant new stake in Comerica.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CMA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$88.67
52W Range Position
76%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$54.42
+62.9% from the low
52-Week High
$99.41
-10.8% from the high
1 Month
—
3 Month
—
YTD
+0.0%
1 Year
+61.8%
3Y CAGR
+34.9%
5Y CAGR
+2.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CMA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.5x
vs 11.4x median
+45% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-8.8%
vs -7.9% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CMA CMA Comerica Incorporated | $11.3B | 16.5x | -8.8% | — | Hold | +16.2% |
ZIO ZION Zions Bancorporation, National Association | $9.5B | 9.9x | -13.2% | — | Hold | +6.1% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28.3B | 12.7x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +10.4% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.5B | 10.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.1% |
KEY KEY KeyCorp | $24.5B | 12.2x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CMA Dividend and Capital Return
CMA does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.4%
5Y Div CAGR
0.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
133M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $2.84 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $2.84 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $2.84 | +4.4% | 0.2% | 5.2% |
| 2022 | $2.72 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 4.5% |
| 2021 | $2.72 | 0.0% | 6.1% | 9.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsCMA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Comerica Incorporated (CMA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Comerica Incorporated (CMA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 62 analysts covering the stock, 15 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 35 rate it Hold, and 12 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $103, implying +16.2% from the current price of $89. The bear case scenario is $70 and the bull case is $306.
02What is the CMA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CMA is $103 based on 62 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $114 (+28.6% from today), and the low-end target is $89 (+0.4%). The base case model target is $102.
03Is Comerica Incorporated (CMA) stock overvalued in 2026?
CMA trades at 16.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Comerica Incorporated (CMA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CMA in 2026 are: (1) Credit Risk — Comerica has a significant concentration of loans in commercial, real estate, and energy sectors, which exposes it to heightened credit risk. (2) Liquidity Risk — Concerns about Comerica's ability to meet short-term financial obligations have been raised, particularly with weaker-than-anticipated average deposit expectations in the second quarter of 2025. (3) Regulatory and Legal Challenges — Comerica faces legal challenges, including a lawsuit from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) regarding its management of Direct Express benefits cards. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Comerica Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CMA will report consensus revenue of $4.4B (-8.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $6.37 (+17.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.3B in revenue.
06When does Comerica Incorporated (CMA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for CMA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Comerica Incorporated generate?
Comerica Incorporated (CMA) generated $413M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. CMA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).