Upside case
Bull case
$64+194.1%
KEY would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 23x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
KeyCorp (KEY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
51
analysts
31 bullish · 2 bearish · 51 covering KEY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
18
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
+5.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $64
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
51
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.1B
KEY price targets
Three scenarios for where KEY stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Base
$26
Bull
$64
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$26+19.3%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
KeyCorp
KEY · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
KeyCorp is a regional bank holding company that provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in the U.S. It generates revenue through interest income from loans (about 60% of total revenue) and fee-based services including wealth management, investment banking, and treasury services. The company's competitive advantage lies in its established regional banking network and integrated financial services platform serving both consumer and commercial clients.
Market Cap
$24.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
KEY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.35
Revenue
$1.8B/$1.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.38
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.41/$0.39
Revenue
$2.0B/$2.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.41
Revenue
$2.0B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.35 | +1.2% | $1.8B/$1.8B | +1.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.41/$0.38 | +7.9% | $2.1B/$1.9B | +10.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.41/$0.39 | +5.9% | $2.0B/$2.0B | +2.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.44/$0.41 | +7.3% | $2.0B/$1.9B | +0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.3B
+1.2% YoY
FY2
$14.1B
+24.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.66
-0.7% YoY
FY2
$1.81
+9.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
KEY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
KEY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Investment Banking And Debt Placement
31.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Investment Banking And Debt Placement is the largest disclosed segment at 31.7% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
KEY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $22 — implies +1.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
KEY
14.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
43% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
KEY
14.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+8% premium
vs KEY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.4x
vs
5Y Average
11.9x
+20% premium
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Financial Services
10.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-43%
Financial Services
13.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+20%
PEG Ratio
3.93x
S&P 500
1.72x
+129%
Financial Services
1.01x
+289%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-4%
Financial Services
11.4x
+28%
5Y Avg
17.2x
-15%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
14.0x
—
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-31%
Financial Services
2.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+6%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Financial Services
2.70%
—
5Y Avg
5.36%
—
| Metric | KEY | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg KEY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 19.1x-37% | 10.4x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.4x | 25.1x-43% | 13.3x | 11.9x+20% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.93x | 1.72x+129% | 1.01x+289% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.6x | 15.2x | 11.4x+28% | 17.2x-15% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 14.0x |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-31% | 2.2x | 2.0x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.70% | 5.36% |
KEY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolKEY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
KEY generates 9.0% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.67
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageKEY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Risk
Fluctuations in overall market value due to economic conditions, political developments, and investor sentiment can significantly impact stock prices. This risk is often measured by beta, indicating a stock's sensitivity to market movements.
High Risk
Financial Risk
Companies with high levels of debt face greater financial risk, especially during economic downturns. Key metrics to analyze include the debt-to-equity ratio and the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, which can indicate potential vulnerabilities.
High Risk
Political and Regulatory Risk
Government policies, regulations, and geopolitical events can create uncertainty that affects market performance. Changes in regulations or political stability can lead to significant fluctuations in stock value.
Medium
Economic Risk
Changes in the overall economic health, including recessions or booms, can impact corporate profitability and stock prices. Economic downturns can lead to reduced consumer spending and lower revenues for companies.
Medium
Business Risk
The risk associated with a company's ability to operate profitably is influenced by management quality, product demand, and financial health. Poor management decisions can lead to decreased profitability and market share.
Lower
Liquidity Risk
The risk of not being able to convert an investment into cash quickly at or near its market price is often more pronounced for smaller companies or those with lower trading volumes. This can lead to increased volatility in stock prices.
Lower
Credit Risk
The risk of loss due to a borrower's default or a credit rating downgrade is particularly relevant for companies with significant debt. This can affect the company's ability to secure financing and impact its overall financial health.
Lower
Event Risk
The possibility of an unanticipated and damaging event affecting a security, such as regulatory changes or negative publicity, can lead to sudden declines in stock value. Companies must manage their public perception and regulatory compliance to mitigate this risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why KEY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervalued Assets and Real Estate Holdings
Kohl's is considered deeply undervalued due to its significant real estate holdings, estimated to be worth between $5 billion and $10 billion. This real estate is largely unrecognized by the market, leading some to view Kohl's as essentially a real estate company with a retail business.
Short Squeeze Potential
Kohl's has experienced extremely high short interest, with a significant percentage of its float sold short. This creates the potential for a short squeeze, where a rapid increase in the stock price forces short sellers to buy back shares, further driving up the price.
Financial Stability and Debt Management
Concerns about Kohl's debt are considered overblown by some analysts. The company has no major debt maturities until 2030, and recent financial maneuvers suggest efforts to unlock hidden asset value.
Turnaround Strategy and Growth Catalysts
Kohl's is implementing a turnaround strategy that includes leveraging its real estate for growth through strategic partnerships and operational improvements. Partnerships, such as the one with Sephora, have already contributed significantly to revenue, with further expansion planned.
Attractive Valuation Metrics
Kohl's exhibits attractive valuation metrics, with low price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios compared to the market and its sector. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses suggest that the stock could be significantly undervalued based on its free cash flow and earnings per share.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
KEY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.87
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.16
+44.3% from the low
52-Week High
$23.35
-6.3% from the high
1 Month
+5.86%
3 Month
-3.66%
YTD
+4.2%
1 Year
+40.6%
3Y CAGR
+30.5%
5Y CAGR
-0.8%
10Y CAGR
+6.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
KEY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 11.6x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.2%
vs -7.9% median
+115% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KEY KEY KeyCorp | $24.1B | 12.0x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +5.7% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.3B | 10.7x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.8% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $27.8B | 12.4x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +12.5% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.0B | 11.2x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +24.2% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $33.7B | 16.3x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +12.3% |
MTB MTB M&T Bank Corporation | $33.1B | 11.6x | -8.1% | — | Hold | +10.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
KEY Dividend and Capital Return
KEY does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.3%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $0.82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $0.82 | +3.8% | 0.3% | 7.1% |
| 2022 | $0.79 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsKEY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is KeyCorp (KEY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
KeyCorp (KEY) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 51 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying +5.7% from the current price of $22.
02What is the KEY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for KEY is $23 based on 51 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $26 (+18.9% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (-17.7%). The base case model target is $26.
03Is KeyCorp (KEY) stock overvalued in 2026?
KEY trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for KeyCorp (KEY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for KEY in 2026 are: (1) Market Risk — Fluctuations in overall market value due to economic conditions, political developments, and investor sentiment can significantly impact stock prices. (2) Financial Risk — Companies with high levels of debt face greater financial risk, especially during economic downturns. (3) Political and Regulatory Risk — Government policies, regulations, and geopolitical events can create uncertainty that affects market performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is KeyCorp's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates KEY will report consensus revenue of $11.3B (+1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.66 (-0.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.1B in revenue.
06When does KeyCorp (KEY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for KEY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does KeyCorp generate?
KeyCorp (KEY) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. KEY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).