Upside case
Bull case
$279+146.2%
PCAR would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 29x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
45
analysts
14 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering PCAR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
28
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$125
+9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$81 – $279
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $59.7B
PCAR price targets
Three scenarios for where PCAR stock could go
Current
~$113
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $113
Bear
$81
Base
$131
Bull
$279
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$131+15.2%
At 23x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$81-28.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push PCAR down roughly 29% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PACCAR Inc
PCAR · NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryDecember year-end
PACCAR is a leading manufacturer of heavy-duty commercial trucks sold under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. It generates revenue primarily from truck sales (~70% of revenue) and a highly profitable aftermarket parts business (~20%), supplemented by financial services for dealers and customers. The company's moat lies in its premium brand reputation for durability and fuel efficiency, supported by a global dealer network that provides superior service and parts availability.
Market Cap
$59.7B
Revenue TTM
$27.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
9.1%
PCAR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.29
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.12/$1.15
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.06/$1.06
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.15
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.37/$1.29 | +6.2% | $7.5B/$7.0B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.12/$1.15 | -2.6% | $6.7B/$6.0B | +11.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.06/$1.06 | +0.0% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.15 | +0.0% | $6.2B/$6.4B | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$26.8B
-1.6% YoY
FY2
$26.2B
-2.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.05
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$5.19
+2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 12.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PCAR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PCAR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Truck Parts And Other
92.2%
-18.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
54.2%
-17.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Truck Parts And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 92.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 18.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 54.2%, down 17.3% YoY.
PCAR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $143 — implies +23.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PCAR
25.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
PCAR
25.1x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
In line with benchmark
vs PCAR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.1x
vs
5Y Average
15.3x
+64% premium
Forward PE
19.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+4%
Industrials
20.7x
-5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+0%
Industrials
25.7x
-2%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+64%
PEG Ratio
1.99x
S&P 500
1.72x
+16%
Industrials
1.64x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-13%
Industrials
13.7x
-3%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+25%
Price/FCF
19.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-7%
Industrials
21.2x
-7%
5Y Avg
26.4x
-25%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-33%
Industrials
1.6x
+32%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+38%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
S&P 500
1.87%
+103%
Industrials
1.27%
+199%
5Y Avg
3.26%
+17%
| Metric | PCAR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg PCAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.8x | 19.1x | 20.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.1x | 25.1x | 25.7x | 15.3x+64% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.99x | 1.72x+16% | 1.64x+21% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.3x | 15.2x-13% | 13.7x | 10.6x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 19.7x | 21.1x | 21.2x | 26.4x-25% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-33% | 1.6x+32% | 1.5x+38% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.79% | 1.87% | 1.27% | 3.26% |
PCAR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPCAR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PCAR generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 12.5% margin — 12.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-15.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$9.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
3.8%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$36M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
95.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
526M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePCAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Demand Volatility
The commercial truck market is highly cyclical, with sales heavily influenced by economic conditions, freight rates, and fleet owner profitability. A slowdown in freight demand can significantly reduce new truck sales, directly impacting revenue and earnings.
High Risk
Technological Disruption
The shift toward electric and autonomous vehicles requires substantial capital outlays. Failure to keep pace with tech-focused competitors could erode PACCAR’s market share and profitability.
Medium
Financial Services Segment Risks
PACCAR’s Financial Services unit faces competition, declining truck sales, lower used‑truck prices, and credit risk from customer defaults. The segment’s high leverage and low‑yielding loans add further financial strain.
Medium
Capital Investment Risk
Heavy investment in self‑driving and electric vehicle technology carries the risk of shareholder dilution or reduced dividends if the expected returns are not realized.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
Shortages of raw materials and components, including semiconductors, as well as supplier interruptions, can limit manufacturing capacity and delay production schedules.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PCAR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Emissions Regulations Boost Truck Orders
Upcoming emissions regulations and the push for fleet decarbonization are expected to drive stronger truck orders and potentially higher average selling prices for PACCAR’s premium brands.
Parts & Financial Services Drive Profits
PACCAR Parts and PACCAR Financial Services have delivered record revenues and strong profits, even during downturns in the new truck market, stabilizing cash flows through business cycles.
Heavy Investment in Electric & Autonomous Tech
The company plans to invest $725-$775 million in capital projects and $450-$500 million in R&D for 2026, positioning it as a leader in electric trucks, autonomous vehicle technology, and integrated powertrains.
Record 2025 Net Income of $2.64B
PACCAR reported an adjusted net income of $2.64 billion in 2025, its fourth-best profit year in company history, underscoring robust profitability.
Tariff Advantage from North American Footprint
The implementation of Section 232 truck tariffs has provided a competitive advantage for PACCAR due to its North American manufacturing footprint, while competitors outside the U.S. face new cost burdens.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PCAR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$113.42
52W Range Position
58%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$88.35
+28.4% from the low
52-Week High
$131.88
-14.0% from the high
1 Month
-4.14%
3 Month
-10.99%
YTD
+1.7%
1 Year
+26.8%
3Y CAGR
+15.9%
5Y CAGR
+13.3%
10Y CAGR
+11.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PCAR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.8x
vs 25.6x median
-23% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.6%
vs +2.2% median
-175% below peer median
Net Margin
9.1%
vs 7.9% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $59.7B | 19.8x | -1.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +9.8% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $93.3B | 25.6x | +4.6% | 7.9% | Buy | -8.0% |
OSK OSK Oshkosh Corporation | $9.7B | 13.7x | +2.2% | 6.8% | Buy | +9.6% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $420.9B | 39.2x | +5.2% | 13.3% | Buy | -8.8% |
DE DE Deere & Company | $156.1B | 32.3x | -6.5% | 8.9% | Hold | +18.2% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.3B | 19.8x | -3.8% | 7.4% | Buy | +11.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PCAR Dividend and Capital Return
PCAR returns 3.9% total yield, led by a 3.79% dividend.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
3.79%
Payout Ratio
95.4%
How PCAR Splits Its Return
Div 3.79%
Dividend 3.79%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
15.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$36M
Estimated Shares Retired
318.3K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
526M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.72 | -29.7% | 0.1% | 4.0% |
| 2024 | $3.87 | -8.7% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $4.24 | +51.8% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $2.79 | +79.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsPCAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $125, implying +9.8% from the current price of $113. The bear case scenario is $81 and the bull case is $279.
02What is the PCAR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PCAR is $125 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $138 (+21.7% from today), and the low-end target is $109 (-3.9%). The base case model target is $131.
03Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PCAR trades at 19.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PCAR in 2026 are: (1) Demand Volatility — The commercial truck market is highly cyclical, with sales heavily influenced by economic conditions, freight rates, and fleet owner profitability. (2) Technological Disruption — The shift toward electric and autonomous vehicles requires substantial capital outlays. (3) Financial Services Segment Risks — PACCAR’s Financial Services unit faces competition, declining truck sales, lower used‑truck prices, and credit risk from customer defaults. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PACCAR Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PCAR will report consensus revenue of $26.8B (-1.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.05 (+7.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $26.2B in revenue.
06When does PACCAR Inc (PCAR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PCAR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does PACCAR Inc generate?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.5%. PCAR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($36M TTM).