Upside case
Bull case
$196+64.9%
PCAR would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
45
analysts
14 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering PCAR
Strong Buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
28
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$127
+7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$94 – $196
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $62.6B
PCAR price targets
Three scenarios for where PCAR stock could go
Current
~$119
Confidence
47 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $119
Bear
$94
Base
$149
Bull
$196
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$149+25.1%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$94-21.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PCAR down roughly 21% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PACCAR Inc
PCAR · NASDAQIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryDecember year-end
PACCAR is a leading manufacturer of heavy-duty commercial trucks sold under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands. It generates revenue primarily from truck sales (~70% of revenue) and a highly profitable aftermarket parts business (~20%), supplemented by financial services for dealers and customers. The company's moat lies in its premium brand reputation for durability and fuel efficiency, supported by a global dealer network that provides superior service and parts availability.
Market Cap
$62.6B
Revenue TTM
$27.2B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
Net Margin
9.1%
PCAR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.29
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.12/$1.15
Revenue
$6.7B/$6.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.06/$1.06
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.15/$1.15
Revenue
$6.2B/$6.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.37/$1.29 | +6.2% | $7.5B/$7.0B | +7.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.12/$1.15 | -2.6% | $6.7B/$6.0B | +11.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.06/$1.06 | +0.0% | $6.3B/$6.1B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.15/$1.15 | +0.0% | $6.2B/$6.4B | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.3B
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$28.2B
+3.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.14
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$5.66
+10.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 12.5%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.32
Expected Revenue
$7.1B
PCAR beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PCAR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Truck Parts And Other
92.2%
-18.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
54.2%
-17.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Truck Parts And Other is the largest disclosed segment at 92.2% of FY 2025 revenue, down 18.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 54.2%, down 17.3% YoY.
PCAR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $168 — implies +40.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
40.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PCAR
26.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+8% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
PCAR
26.4x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
In line with benchmark
vs PCAR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.4x
vs
5Y Average
15.3x
+72% premium
Forward PE
21.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
+11%
Industrials
21.2x
-1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+8%
Industrials
25.6x
+3%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+72%
PEG Ratio
2.09x
S&P 500
1.66x
+26%
Industrials
1.65x
+27%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-7%
Industrials
13.9x
+1%
5Y Avg
10.6x
+32%
Price/FCF
20.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-0%
Industrials
20.0x
+3%
5Y Avg
26.4x
-22%
Price/Sales
2.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-29%
Industrials
1.6x
+41%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+44%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
S&P 500
1.91%
+89%
Industrials
1.21%
+198%
5Y Avg
3.26%
+11%
| Metric | PCAR | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg PCAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.0x | 18.8x+11% | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.4x | 24.4x | 25.6x | 15.3x+72% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.09x | 1.66x+26% | 1.65x+27% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.1x | 15.2x | 13.9x | 10.6x+32% |
| Price/FCF | 20.7x | 20.7x | 20.0x | 26.4x-22% |
| Price/Sales | 2.2x | 3.1x-29% | 1.6x+41% | 1.5x+44% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.62% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 3.26% |
PCAR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPCAR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PCAR generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 12.5% margin — 12.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$27.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-15.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
15.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.69
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
12.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$9.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$9.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.7%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$36M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
95.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
526M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePCAR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Order Cancellations
Order cancellations or sustained volume declines could compress OEM margins, negatively impacting profitability.
High Risk
Used-Truck Prices
Weakening used-truck prices may amplify downside risks, particularly if demand softens.
Medium
Financing Losses
Potential financing losses at PACCAR Capital could exacerbate financial strain in a downturn.
Medium
Market Volatility
Economic uncertainty and market volatility may pressure stock performance despite long-term growth targets.
Lower
Valuation Risk
Consensus price targets suggest limited upside potential, indicating possible valuation constraints.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PCAR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong analyst price targets
Analysts project an average 12-month price target of 117.32 for PACCAR, with a high estimate of 150, indicating bullish sentiment.
Premium brand reputation
PACCAR is recognized as the 'gold standard' in the heavy-duty truck market with its Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF brands.
Advanced powertrain technology
PACCAR designs and manufactures advanced powertrains, positioning itself as a leader in innovative truck technology.
Bullish EPS growth potential
In a bull case scenario, PACCAR could achieve a 10-year EPS CAGR of 9%, driven by reliable and cost-effective technology.
Diversified business segments
Beyond truck manufacturing, PACCAR provides financial services, IT, and truck parts distribution, enhancing revenue streams.
Attractive valuation metrics
PACCAR's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 14.56 and 14.20 respectively suggest the stock is reasonably valued.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PCAR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$118.95
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$90.05
+32.1% from the low
52-Week High
$131.88
-9.8% from the high
1 Month
+6.51%
3 Month
+3.71%
YTD
+6.6%
1 Year
+31.1%
3Y CAGR
+15.2%
5Y CAGR
+15.4%
10Y CAGR
+12.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PCAR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.0x
vs 24.7x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.3%
vs +5.3% median
-94% below peer median
Net Margin
9.1%
vs 7.9% median
+15% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $62.6B | 21.0x | +0.3% | 9.1% | Hold | +7.1% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $99.0B | 24.7x | +6.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
OSK OSK Oshkosh Corporation | $66.5B | 12.8x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +22.7% |
CAT CAT Caterpillar Inc. | $458.7B | 40.0x | +6.5% | 13.3% | Buy | -10.5% |
DE DE Deere & Company | $159.1B | 32.6x | -1.9% | 10.2% | Hold | +17.1% |
AGC AGCO AGCO Corporation | $8.2B | 19.0x | -0.3% | 7.4% | Buy | +9.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PCAR Dividend and Capital Return
PCAR returns 3.7% total yield, led by a 3.62% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years.
Dividend At RiskFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
3.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.1%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
Payout Ratio
95.4%
How PCAR Splits Its Return
Div 3.62%
Dividend 3.62%Buybacks 0.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
-0.9%
5Y Div CAGR
15.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$36M
Estimated Shares Retired
303.5K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
526M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.68 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.72 | -34.8% | 0.1% | 4.0% |
| 2024 | $4.17 | -1.7% | 0.0% | 4.2% |
| 2023 | $4.24 | +51.8% | 0.0% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $2.79 | +47.5% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsPCAR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 28 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $127, implying +7.1% from the current price of $119. The bear case scenario is $94 and the bull case is $196.
02What is the PCAR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PCAR is $127 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $139 (+16.9% from today), and the low-end target is $109 (-8.4%). The base case model target is $149.
03Is PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PCAR trades at 21.0x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PACCAR Inc (PCAR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PCAR in 2026 are: (1) Order Cancellations — Order cancellations or sustained volume declines could compress OEM margins, negatively impacting profitability. (2) Used-Truck Prices — Weakening used-truck prices may amplify downside risks, particularly if demand softens. (3) Financing Losses — Potential financing losses at PACCAR Capital could exacerbate financial strain in a downturn. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PACCAR Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PCAR will report consensus revenue of $27.3B (+0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.14 (+9.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $28.2B in revenue.
06When does PACCAR Inc (PCAR) report its next earnings?
PACCAR Inc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $1.32 and revenue of $7.1B. Over recent quarters, PCAR has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does PACCAR Inc generate?
PACCAR Inc (PCAR) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.5%. PCAR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($36M TTM).